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Rational expectations business cycle models: a survey

  • Michael Dotsey
  • Robert G. King
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    Development of rational expectations models of the business cycle has been the central issue in macroeconomics over the last 15 years. The postulate that expectations are rational imposes considerable discipline on business cycle analysis. In this essay we review the current literature on rational expectations models of business cycles with specific attention focused on the extent to which the rational expectations perspective has generated a new understanding of economic fluctuations.

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    File URL: http://www.richmondfed.org/publications/research/economic_review/1988/pdf/er740201.pdf
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    Article provided by Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond in its journal Economic Review.

    Volume (Year): (1988)
    Issue (Month): Mar ()
    Pages: 3-15

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    Handle: RePEc:fip:fedrer:y:1988:i:mar:p:3-15:n:v.74no.2
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    1. Robert J. Barro & Mark Rush, 1979. "Unanticipated Money and Economic Activity," NBER Working Papers 0339, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Barro, Robert J, 1980. "A Capital Market in an Equilibrium Business Cycle Model," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 48(6), pages 1393-1417, September.
    3. Gray, Jo Anna, 1976. "Wage indexation: A macroeconomic approach," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 2(2), pages 221-235, April.
    4. Barro, Robert J. & Hercowitz, Zvi, 1980. "Money stock revisions and unanticipated money growth," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 6(2), pages 257-267, April.
    5. King, Robert G., 1981. "Monetary information and monetary neutrality," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 7(2), pages 195-206.
    6. Blanchard, Olivier Jean & Kiyotaki, Nobuhiro, 1987. "Monopolistic Competition and the Effects of Aggregate Demand," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 77(4), pages 647-66, September.
    7. Ahmed, Shaghil, 1987. "Wage stickiness and the non-neutrality of money : A cross-industry analysis," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 20(1), pages 25-50, July.
    8. Goodfriend, Marvin, 1987. "Interest rate smoothing and price level trend-stationarity," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 19(3), pages 335-348, May.
    9. Kydland, Finn E & Prescott, Edward C, 1982. "Time to Build and Aggregate Fluctuations," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(6), pages 1345-70, November.
    10. Sherwin Rosen, 1985. "Implicit Contracts: A Survey," NBER Working Papers 1635, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    11. McCallum, Bennett T, 1978. "Price Level Adjustments and the Rational Expectations Approach to Macroeconomic Stabilization Policy," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 10(4), pages 418-36, November.
    12. King, Robert G. & Trehan, Bharat, 1984. "Money : Endogeneity and neutrality," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 14(3), pages 385-393, November.
    13. Bils, Mark J, 1985. "Real Wages over the Business Cycle: Evidence from Panel Data," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 93(4), pages 666-89, August.
    14. Leiderman, Leonardo, 1983. "The response of real wages to unanticipated money growth," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 11(1), pages 73-88.
    15. McCallum, Bennett T, 1980. "Rational Expectations and Macroeconomic Stabilization Policy: An Overview," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 12(4), pages 716-46, November.
    16. Long, John B, Jr & Plosser, Charles I, 1983. "Real Business Cycles," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 91(1), pages 39-69, February.
    17. McCallum, Bennett T., 1979. "A monetary policy ineffectiveness result in a model with a predetermined price level," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 3(1), pages 1-4.
    18. Lucas, Robert Jr., 1972. "Expectations and the neutrality of money," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 4(2), pages 103-124, April.
    19. Boschen, John F. & Grossman, Herschel I., 1982. "Tests of equilibrium macroeconomics using contemporaneous monetary data," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 10(3), pages 309-333.
    20. Rogerson, Richard, 1988. "Indivisible labor, lotteries and equilibrium," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 21(1), pages 3-16, January.
    21. Hansen, Gary D., 1985. "Indivisible labor and the business cycle," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 16(3), pages 309-327, November.
    22. Barro, Robert J., 1976. "Rational expectations and the role of monetary policy," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 2(1), pages 1-32, January.
    23. Lucas, Robert E, Jr, 1980. "Methods and Problems in Business Cycle Theory," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 12(4), pages 696-715, November.
    24. Fischer, Stanley, 1977. "Long-Term Contracts, Rational Expectations, and the Optimal Money Supply Rule," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 85(1), pages 191-205, February.
    25. King, Robert G & Plosser, Charles I, 1984. "Money, Credit, and Prices in a Real Business Cycle," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 74(3), pages 363-80, June.
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