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The natural-rate hypothesis, the rational-expectations hypothesis, and the remarkable survival of non-market-clearing assumptions

  • Grossman, Herschel I.

Non-market-clearing models continue to dominate analysis of macroeconomic fluctuations and discussions of macroeconomic policy. This situation is remarkable because non-market-clearing assumptions seem to be inconsistent with the essential presumption of neoclassical economic analysis that market outcomes exhaust opportunities for mutually advantageous exchange. Non-market-clearing models apparently have survived because they have evolved to incorporate both the natural-rate hypothesis and the rational-expectations hypothesis and because the alternative "equilibrium" approach has failed empirically.This paper expands on these ideas and briefly discusses some of the problems that we face in attempting to evaluate empirically the recent vintage of non-market-clearing models. The main difficulties seem to involve accounting for shifts in the natural levels of real aggregates and specifying the timing of the past anticipations that determine the effects of current monetary policy.

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Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy.

Volume (Year): 19 (1983)
Issue (Month): 1 (January)
Pages: 225-245

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Handle: RePEc:eee:crcspp:v:19:y:1983:i::p:225-245
Contact details of provider: Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/jme

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  1. Phelps, Edmund S & Taylor, John B, 1977. "Stabilizing Powers of Monetary Policy under Rational Expectations," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 85(1), pages 163-90, February.
  2. Gertler, Mark L., 1981. "Long-term contracts, imperfect information, and monetary policy," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 3(1), pages 197-216, November.
  3. Attfield, C. L. F. & Demery, D. & Duck, N. W., 1981. "A quarterly model of unanticipated monetary growth, output and the price level in the U.K. 1963-1978," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 8(3), pages 331-350.
  4. Herschel I. Grossman, 1981. "Incomplete Information, Risk Shifting, and Employment Fluctuations," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 48(2), pages 189-197.
  5. Pesaran, M H, 1982. "A Critique of the Proposed Tests of the Natural Rate-Rational Expectations Hypothesis," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 92(367), pages 529-54, September.
  6. Grossman, Herschel I, 1979. "Why Does Aggregate Employment Fluctuate?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 69(2), pages 64-69, May.
  7. Robert J. Barro & Robert G. King, 1984. "Time-Separable Preferences and Intertemporal-Substitution Models of Business Cycles," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 99(4), pages 817-839.
  8. Grossman, Sanford J & Weiss, Laurence, 1982. "Heterogeneous Information and the Theory of the Business Cycle," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 90(4), pages 699-727, August.
  9. King, Robert G., 1981. "Monetary information and monetary neutrality," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 7(2), pages 195-206.
  10. Robert G. King & Charles I. Plosser, 1982. "The Behavior of Money, Credit, and Prices in a Real Business Cycle," NBER Working Papers 0853, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  11. Brunner, Karl & Cukierman, Alex & Meltzer, Allan H., 1980. "Stagflation, persistent unemployment and the permanence of economic shocks," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 6(4), pages 467-492, October.
  12. Barro, Robert J. & Hercowitz, Zvi, 1980. "Money stock revisions and unanticipated money growth," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 6(2), pages 257-267, April.
  13. Seater, John J., 1977. "A unified model of consumption, labor supply, and job search," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 14(2), pages 349-372, April.
  14. John F. Boschen & Herschel I. Grossman, 1981. "Tests of Equilibrium Macroeconomics Using Contemporaneous Monetary Data," NBER Working Papers 0558, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  15. Seater, John J., 1978. "Utility maximization, aggregate labor force behavior, and the Phillips curve," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 4(4), pages 687-713, November.
  16. Mussa, Michael, 1981. "Sticky Prices and Disequilibrium Adjustment in a Rational Model of the Inflationary Process," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 71(5), pages 1020-27, December.
  17. Stanley Fischer, 1980. "Introduction to "Rational Expectations and Economic Policy"," NBER Chapters, in: Rational Expectations and Economic Policy, pages 1-3 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  18. repec:nbr:nberbk:fisc80-1 is not listed on IDEAS
  19. Gertler, Mark, 1982. "Imperfect Information and Wage Inertia in the Business Cycle," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 90(5), pages 967-87, October.
  20. Herschel I. Grossman, 1980. "Incomplete Information, Risk Shifting, and Employment Fluctuations," NBER Working Papers 0534, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  21. Frederic S. Mishkin, 1983. "Introduction to "A Rational Expectations Approach to Macroeconomics: Testing Policy Ineffectiveness and Efficient-Markets Models"," NBER Chapters, in: A Rational Expectations Approach to Macroeconomics: Testing Policy Ineffectiveness and Efficient-Markets Models, pages 1-6 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  22. repec:nbr:nberbk:mish83-1 is not listed on IDEAS
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