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The natural-rate hypothesis, the rational-expectations hypothesis, and the remarkable survival of non-market-clearing assumptions

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  • Grossman, Herschel I.

Abstract

Non-market-clearing models continue to dominate analysis of macroeconomic fluctuations and discussions of macroeconomic policy. This situation is remarkable because non-market-clearing assumptions seem to be inconsistent with the essential presumption of neoclassical economic analysis that market outcomes exhaust opportunities for mutually advantageous exchange. Non-market-clearing models apparently have survived because they have evolved to incorporate both the natural-rate hypothesis and the rational-expectations hypothesis and because the alternative "equilibrium" approach has failed empirically.This paper expands on these ideas and briefly discusses some of the problems that we face in attempting to evaluate empirically the recent vintage of non-market-clearing models. The main difficulties seem to involve accounting for shifts in the natural levels of real aggregates and specifying the timing of the past anticipations that determine the effects of current monetary policy.
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Suggested Citation

  • Grossman, Herschel I., 1983. "The natural-rate hypothesis, the rational-expectations hypothesis, and the remarkable survival of non-market-clearing assumptions," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 19(1), pages 225-245, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:crcspp:v:19:y:1983:i::p:225-245
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    Cited by:

    1. Romain Plassard, 2019. "From Disequilibrium to Equilibrium Macroeconomics: Barro and Grossman's Trade-off between Rigor and Realism," GREDEG Working Papers 2019-17, Groupe de REcherche en Droit, Economie, Gestion (GREDEG CNRS), Université Côte d'Azur, France.
    2. Bennett T. McCallum, 1984. "Credibility and monetary policy," Proceedings - Economic Policy Symposium - Jackson Hole, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, pages 105-135.
    3. Mulder, C.B., 1986. "Testing Korteweg's rational expectations model for a small open economy," Other publications TiSEM c52e6c80-834d-49c7-ae6a-b, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
    4. Grossman, Herschel I., 1991. "Monetary economics : A review essay," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 28(2), pages 323-345, October.
    5. Plassard, Romain, 2021. "Barro, Grossman, and the domination of equilibrium macroeconomics," MPRA Paper 107201, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    6. Bennett T. McCallum, 1982. "Macroeconomics after a decade of rational expectations : some critical issues," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond, vol. 68(Nov), pages 3-12.
    7. Zijp, R. van, 1990. "New classical monetary business cycle theory," Serie Research Memoranda 0058, VU University Amsterdam, Faculty of Economics, Business Administration and Econometrics.

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