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On Activist Monetary Policy With Rational Expectations

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  • Stanley Fischer

Abstract

The paper examines the case for activist monetary policy. It accepts the view that expectations are formed rationally, but not the implication of flexible price, equilibrium, rational expectations models, that monetary policy cannot and should not be used to affect real magnitudes. The paper starts by asking why the economy has not insulated itself from monetary disturbances through the adoption of indexing and other provisions that would effectively shorten contracts, and suggests that the costs of doing so must be substantial. These costs provide the rational for activist policy, whose aim should be to adjust for aggregate disturbances that the private sector has not made provision to handle. The arguments about activist policy then become those familiar from earlier discussions by Milton Friedman, concerning the long and variable lags with which policy operates, and the alleged propensity of the Fed to misbehave. It is argued that an activist policy that does not respond to minor disturbances, but does respond to actual and prospective major disturbances, would provide a stabilizing force for the economy.

Suggested Citation

  • Stanley Fischer, 1979. "On Activist Monetary Policy With Rational Expectations," NBER Working Papers 0341, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:0341
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    Cited by:

    1. J. Fernando Larios, 1988. "El impacto de la política monetaria sobre los precios relativos de los sectores agrario y no-agrario en Perú," Revista Economía, Fondo Editorial - Pontificia Universidad Católica del Perú, vol. 0(22), pages 67-98.
    2. Christiano, Lawrence J. & G. Harrison, Sharon, 1999. "Chaos, sunspots and automatic stabilizers," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 44(1), pages 3-31, August.
    3. Karimova, Amira & Simsek, Esra & Orhan, Mehmet, 2020. "Policy implications of the Lucas Critique empirically tested along the global financial crisis," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 42(1), pages 153-172.
    4. Grossman, Herschel I., 1983. "The natural-rate hypothesis, the rational-expectations hypothesis, and the remarkable survival of non-market-clearing assumptions," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 19(1), pages 225-245, January.
    5. Zijp, R. van, 1990. "Why Lucas is not a Hayekian," Serie Research Memoranda 0027, VU University Amsterdam, Faculty of Economics, Business Administration and Econometrics.
    6. Benjamin M. Friedman, 1988. "Targets and Instruments of Monetary Policy," NBER Working Papers 2668, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    7. Zijp, R. van, 1990. "New classical monetary business cycle theory," Serie Research Memoranda 0058, VU University Amsterdam, Faculty of Economics, Business Administration and Econometrics.
    8. Fischer, Stanley, 1985. "Supply Shocks, Wage Stickiness, and Accommodation," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 17(1), pages 1-15, February.
    9. Akhand Akhtar Hossain, 2009. "Central Banking and Monetary Policy in the Asia-Pacific," Books, Edward Elgar Publishing, number 12777, December.
    10. Karel Brůna, 2003. "Nedokonalá konkurence, náklady cenových změn a neúplná racionalita jako zdroje nominální cenové rigidity v nové keynesovské makroekonomii [Imperfect competition, menu costs and near rationality as ," Politická ekonomie, Prague University of Economics and Business, vol. 2003(6), pages 901-914.
    11. Asako, Kazumi, 1984. "Money Supply Uncertainty and Activist Stabilization Policy under Rational Expectation," Economic Review, Hitotsubashi University, vol. 35(4), pages 368-371, October.
    12. A. Steven Holland, 1984. "Real interest rates: what accounts for their recent rise?," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, vol. 66(Dec), pages 18-29.
    13. P. D. Jonson & R. W. Rankin, 1986. "On Some Recent Developments in Monetary Economics," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 62(3), pages 257-267, September.

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