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The Natural-Rate Hypothesis, the Rational-Expectations Hypothesis, and the Remarkable Survival of Non-Market-Clearing Assumptions

  • Herschel I. Grossman

Non-market-clearing models continue to dominate analysis of macroeconomic fluctuations and discussions of macroeconomic policy. This situation is remarkable because non-market-clearing assumptions seem to be inconsistent with the essential presumption of neoclassical economic analysis that market outcomes exhaust opportunities for mutually advantageous exchange. Non-market-clearing models apparently have survived because they have evolved to incorporate both the natural-rate hypothesis and the rational-expectations hypothesis and because the alternative "equilibrium" approach has failed empirically.This paper expands on these ideas and briefly discusses some of the problems that we face in attempting to evaluate empirically the recent vintage of non-market-clearing models. The main difficulties seem to involve accounting for shifts in the natural levels of real aggregates and specifying the timing of the past anticipations that determine the effects of current monetary policy.

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Paper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 1010.

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Date of creation: Oct 1982
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Publication status: published as Grossman, Herchel I. "The Natural-Rate Hypothesis, the Rational-Expectations Hypothesis, and the Remarkable Survival of Non-Market-Clearing Assumptions." Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, ed. K. Brunnerand A. Meltzer, Vol. 19, (1983), pp. 225-245.
Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:1010
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  1. Stanley Fischer, 1980. "Introduction to "Rational Expectations and Economic Policy"," NBER Chapters, in: Rational Expectations and Economic Policy, pages 1-3 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  2. Frederic S. Mishkin, 1983. "A Rational Expectations Approach to Macroeconomics: Testing Policy Ineffectiveness and Efficient-Markets Models," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number mish83-1, September.
  3. Robert J. Barro & Robert G. King, 1982. "Time-Separable Preference and Intertemporal-Substitution Models of Business Cycles," NBER Working Papers 0888, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  4. Barro, Robert J. & Hercowitz, Zvi, 1980. "Money stock revisions and unanticipated money growth," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 6(2), pages 257-267, April.
  5. Pesaran, M H, 1982. "A Critique of the Proposed Tests of the Natural Rate-Rational Expectations Hypothesis," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 92(367), pages 529-54, September.
  6. Robert G. King & Charles I. Plosser, 1982. "The Behavior of Money, Credit, and Prices in a Real Business Cycle," NBER Working Papers 0853, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  7. Seater, John J., 1978. "Utility maximization, aggregate labor force behavior, and the Phillips curve," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 4(4), pages 687-713, November.
  8. S. Grossman & L. Weiss, . "Heterogeneous Information and the Theory of the Business Cycle," Rodney L. White Center for Financial Research Working Papers 16-80, Wharton School Rodney L. White Center for Financial Research.
  9. Stanley Fischer, 1980. "Rational Expectations and Economic Policy," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number fisc80-1, September.
  10. Seater, John J., 1977. "A unified model of consumption, labor supply, and job search," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 14(2), pages 349-372, April.
  11. Grossman, Herschel I, 1979. "Why Does Aggregate Employment Fluctuate?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 69(2), pages 64-69, May.
  12. Gertler, Mark, 1982. "Imperfect Information and Wage Inertia in the Business Cycle," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 90(5), pages 967-87, October.
  13. Mussa, Michael, 1981. "Sticky Prices and Disequilibrium Adjustment in a Rational Model of the Inflationary Process," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 71(5), pages 1020-27, December.
  14. Herschel I. Grossman, 1980. "Incomplete Information, Risk Shifting, and Employment Fluctuations," NBER Working Papers 0534, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  15. King, Robert G., 1981. "Monetary information and monetary neutrality," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 7(2), pages 195-206.
  16. Phelps, Edmund S & Taylor, John B, 1977. "Stabilizing Powers of Monetary Policy under Rational Expectations," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 85(1), pages 163-90, February.
  17. Boschen, John F. & Grossman, Herschel I., 1982. "Tests of equilibrium macroeconomics using contemporaneous monetary data," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 10(3), pages 309-333.
  18. Brunner, Karl & Cukierman, Alex & Meltzer, Allan H., 1980. "Stagflation, persistent unemployment and the permanence of economic shocks," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 6(4), pages 467-492, October.
  19. Frederic S. Mishkin, 1983. "Introduction to "A Rational Expectations Approach to Macroeconomics: Testing Policy Ineffectiveness and Efficient-Markets Models"," NBER Chapters, in: A Rational Expectations Approach to Macroeconomics: Testing Policy Ineffectiveness and Efficient-Markets Models, pages 1-6 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  20. Gertler, Mark L., 1981. "Long-term contracts, imperfect information, and monetary policy," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 3(1), pages 197-216, November.
  21. Attfield, C. L. F. & Demery, D. & Duck, N. W., 1981. "A quarterly model of unanticipated monetary growth, output and the price level in the U.K. 1963-1978," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 8(3), pages 331-350.
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