IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/
MyIDEAS: Login to save this paper or follow this series

Expectations-driven cycles in the housing market

  • Luisa Lambertini

    ()

    (College of Management)

  • Caterina Mendicino

    ()

    (Banco de Portugal)

  • Maria Teresa Punzi

    ()

    (Banco de Portugal)

This paper analyzes housing market boom-bust cycles driven by changes in households’ expectations. We explore the role of expectations not only on productivity but on several other shocks that originate in the housing market, the credit market and the conduct of monetary policy. We f nd that, in the presence of nominal rigidities, expectations on both the conduct of monetary policy and future productivity can generate housing market boom-bust cycles in accordance with the empirical f ndings. Moreover, expectations of either a future reduction in the policy rate or a temporary increase in the central bank’s inf ation target that are not fulf lled generate a macroeconomic recession. Increased access to credit generates a boom-bust cycle in most variables only if it is expected to be reversed in the near future.

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.

File URL: http://www.bde.es/f/webbde/SES/Secciones/Publicaciones/PublicacionesSeriadas/DocumentosTrabajo/10/Fic/dt1021e.pdf
File Function: First version, July 2010
Download Restriction: no

Paper provided by Banco de Espa�a in its series Banco de Espa�a Working Papers with number 1021.

as
in new window

Length: 56 pages
Date of creation: Jul 2010
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:bde:wpaper:1021
Contact details of provider: Web page: http://www.bde.es/
Email:


More information through EDIRC

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

as in new window
  1. Arce, Oscar & López-Salido, J David, 2008. "Housing Bubbles," CEPR Discussion Papers 6932, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  2. Nutahara, Kengo, 2010. "Internal and external habits and news-driven business cycles," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 107(2), pages 300-303, May.
  3. Nir Jaimovich & Sergio Rebelo, 2009. "Can News about the Future Drive the Business Cycle?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 99(4), pages 1097-1118, September.
  4. Cosmin L. Ilut & Lawrence J. Christiano & Roberto Motto & Massimo Rostagno, 2010. "Monetary Policy and Stock Market Booms," Working Papers 10-69, Duke University, Department of Economics.
  5. Kobayashi, Keiichiro & Nakajima, Tomoyuki & Inaba, Masaru, 2012. "Collateral Constraint And News-Driven Cycles," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 16(05), pages 752-776, November.
  6. Flodén, Martin, 2007. "Vintage Capital and Expectations Driven Business Cycles," CEPR Discussion Papers 6113, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  7. Ben Bernanke & Mark Gertler, 2000. "Monetary Policy and Asset Price Volatility," NBER Working Papers 7559, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  8. Duca, John V. & Muellbauer, John & Murphy, Anthony, 2010. "Housing markets and the financial crisis of 2007-2009: Lessons for the future," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 6(4), pages 203-217, December.
  9. Paul Beaudry & Franck Portier, 2004. "Stock Prices, News and Economic Fluctuations," NBER Chapters, in: Enhancing Productivity (NBER-CEPR-TCER-Keio conference) National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  10. Morris Davis & Jonathan Heathcote, 2004. "Housing and the business cycle," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2004-11, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  11. John Y. Campbell, 1992. "Inspecting the Mechanism: An Analytical Approach to the Stochastic Growth Model," NBER Working Papers 4188, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  12. Monacelli, Tommaso, 2006. "New Keynesian Models, Durable Goods and Collateral Constraints," CEPR Discussion Papers 5916, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  13. Matteo Iacoviello & Stefano Neri, 2007. "Housing Market Spillovers: Evidence from an Estimated DSGE Model," Boston College Working Papers in Economics 659, Boston College Department of Economics, revised 23 Oct 2009.
  14. Walentin, Karl, 2009. "Expectation Driven Business Cycles with Limited Enforcement," Working Paper Series 229, Sveriges Riksbank (Central Bank of Sweden), revised 01 Oct 2011.
  15. José-Víctor Ríos-Rull & Virginia Sánchez-Marcos, 2008. "An Aggregate Economy with Different Size Houses," Journal of the European Economic Association, MIT Press, vol. 6(2-3), pages 705-714, 04-05.
  16. Tomura, Hajime, 2010. "International capital flows and expectation-driven boom-bust cycles in the housing market," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 34(10), pages 1993-2009, October.
  17. Beaudry, Paul & Portier, Franck, 2001. "An Exploration into Pigou's Theory of Cycles," CEPR Discussion Papers 2996, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  18. Karl Walentin, 2014. "Housing Collateral and the Monetary Transmission Mechanism," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 116(3), pages 635-668, 07.
  19. Nobuhiro Kiyotaki & Alexander Michaelides & Kalin Nikolov, 2011. "Winners and Losers in Housing Markets," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 43, pages 255-296, 03.
  20. Caterina Mendicino & Andrea Pescatori, 2004. "Credit Frictions, housing prices and optimal monetary policy Rules," Departmental Working Papers of Economics - University 'Roma Tre' 0042, Department of Economics - University Roma Tre.
  21. André Kurmann & Christopher Otrok, 2010. "News Shocks and the Slope of the Term Structure of Interest Rates," Cahiers de recherche 1005, CIRPEE.
  22. Alessandro Calza & Tommaso Monacelli & Livio Stracca, 2013. "Housing Finance And Monetary Policy," Journal of the European Economic Association, European Economic Association, vol. 11, pages 101-122, 01.
  23. Giovanni Favara & Jean Imbs, 2015. "Credit Supply and the Price of Housing," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 105(3), pages 958-92, March.
  24. Hilde C. Bjørnland & Dag Henning Jacobsen, 2009. "The role of house prices in the monetary policy transmission mechanism in small open economies," Working Paper 2009/06, Norges Bank.
  25. Horvath, Michael, 2000. "Sectoral shocks and aggregate fluctuations," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 45(1), pages 69-106, February.
  26. Robert B. Barsky & Eric R. Sims, 2009. "News Shocks," NBER Working Papers 15312, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  27. Raf Wouters & Frank Smets, 2003. "Output gaps:theory versus practice," Computing in Economics and Finance 2003 256, Society for Computational Economics.
  28. Schmitt-Grohé, Stephanie & Uribe, Martín, 2009. "What’s News in Business Cycles," CEPR Discussion Papers 7201, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  29. Philip Lowe & Claudio Borio, 2002. "Asset prices, financial and monetary stability: exploring the nexus," BIS Working Papers 114, Bank for International Settlements.
  30. Piazzesi, Monika & Schneider, Martin & Tuzel, Selale, 2007. "Housing, consumption and asset pricing," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 83(3), pages 531-569, March.
  31. Beaudry, Paul & Portier, Franck, 2004. "When Can Changes in Expectations Cause Business Cycle Fluctuations in Neo-Classical Settings?," CEPR Discussion Papers 4628, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  32. Den Haan, Wouter & Kaltenbrunner, Georg, 2007. "Anticipated Growth and Business Cycles in Matching Models," CEPR Discussion Papers 6063, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  33. Silos, Pedro, 2007. "Housing, portfolio choice and the macroeconomy," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 31(8), pages 2774-2801, August.
  34. Hashmat Khan & John Tsoukalas, 2012. "The Quantitative Importance of News Shocks in Estimated DSGE Models," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 44(8), pages 1535-1561, December.
  35. Mendicino, Caterina, 2007. "Credit market and macroeconomic volatility," Working Paper Series 0743, European Central Bank.
  36. Greenwood, Jeremy & Hercowitz, Zvi & Huffman, Gregory W, 1988. "Investment, Capacity Utilization, and the Real Business Cycle," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 78(3), pages 402-17, June.
  37. Monika Piazzesi & Martin Schneider, 2009. "Momentum traders in the housing market: survey evidence and a search model," NBER Working Papers 14669, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  38. Matteo Iacoviello, 2005. "House Prices, Borrowing Constraints, and Monetary Policy in the Business Cycle," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 95(3), pages 739-764, June.
  39. Stephen G. Cecchetti & Hans Genberg & Sushil Wadhwani, 2002. "Asset Prices in a Flexible Inflation Targeting Framework," NBER Working Papers 8970, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  40. L. Wade, 1988. "Review," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 58(1), pages 99-100, July.
  41. Christiano, Lawrence & Ilut, Cosmin & Motto, Roberto & Rostagno, Massimo, 2008. "Monetary policy and stock market boom-bust cycles," Working Paper Series 0955, European Central Bank.
  42. Meenakshi Basant Roi & Rhys R. Mendes, 2007. "Should Central Banks Adjust Their Target Horizons in Response to House-Price Bubbles?," Discussion Papers 07-4, Bank of Canada.
Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bde:wpaper:1021. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Mar�a Beiro. Electronic Dissemination of Information Unit. Research Department. Banco de Espa�a)

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

This information is provided to you by IDEAS at the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis using RePEc data.