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Expectations-driven cycles in the housing market

Listed author(s):
  • Luisa Lambertini

    ()

    (College of Management)

  • Caterina Mendicino

    ()

    (Banco de Portugal)

  • Maria Teresa Punzi

    ()

    (Banco de Portugal)

This paper analyzes housing market boom-bust cycles driven by changes in households’ expectations. We explore the role of expectations not only on productivity but on several other shocks that originate in the housing market, the credit market and the conduct of monetary policy. We f nd that, in the presence of nominal rigidities, expectations on both the conduct of monetary policy and future productivity can generate housing market boom-bust cycles in accordance with the empirical f ndings. Moreover, expectations of either a future reduction in the policy rate or a temporary increase in the central bank’s inf ation target that are not fulf lled generate a macroeconomic recession. Increased access to credit generates a boom-bust cycle in most variables only if it is expected to be reversed in the near future.

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File URL: http://www.bde.es/f/webbde/SES/Secciones/Publicaciones/PublicacionesSeriadas/DocumentosTrabajo/10/Fic/dt1021e.pdf
File Function: First version, July 2010
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Paper provided by Banco de España & Working Papers Homepage in its series Working Papers with number 1021.

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Length: 56 pages
Date of creation: Jul 2010
Handle: RePEc:bde:wpaper:1021
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