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Expectations-driven cycles in the housing market

Author

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  • Luisa Lambertini

    () (College of Management)

  • Caterina Mendicino

    () (Banco de Portugal)

  • Maria Teresa Punzi

    () (Banco de Portugal)

Abstract

This paper analyzes housing market boom-bust cycles driven by changes in households’ expectations. We explore the role of expectations not only on productivity but on several other shocks that originate in the housing market, the credit market and the conduct of monetary policy. We f nd that, in the presence of nominal rigidities, expectations on both the conduct of monetary policy and future productivity can generate housing market boom-bust cycles in accordance with the empirical f ndings. Moreover, expectations of either a future reduction in the policy rate or a temporary increase in the central bank’s inf ation target that are not fulf lled generate a macroeconomic recession. Increased access to credit generates a boom-bust cycle in most variables only if it is expected to be reversed in the near future.

Suggested Citation

  • Luisa Lambertini & Caterina Mendicino & Maria Teresa Punzi, 2010. "Expectations-driven cycles in the housing market," Working Papers 1021, Banco de España;Working Papers Homepage.
  • Handle: RePEc:bde:wpaper:1021
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    Cited by:

    1. Paul Beaudry & Franck Portier, 2014. "News-Driven Business Cycles: Insights and Challenges," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 52(4), pages 993-1074, December.
    2. Caterina Mendicino & Maria Teresa Punzi, 2011. "Boom-bust cycles and stabilisation policy - monetary and macroprudential rules: a loss function approach," BIS Papers chapters,in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Macroprudential regulation and policy, volume 60, pages 58-65 Bank for International Settlements.
    3. Lambertini, Luisa & Mendicino, Caterina & Teresa Punzi, Maria, 2013. "Leaning against boom–bust cycles in credit and housing prices," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 37(8), pages 1500-1522.
    4. Caterina Mendicino, 2009. "Monetary Policy Expectations and Boom-Bust Cycles in the Housing Market," Economic Bulletin and Financial Stability Report Articles, Banco de Portugal, Economics and Research Department.
    5. Pascal Towbin & Sebastian Weber, 2015. "Price Expectations and the U.S. Housing Boom," IMF Working Papers 15/182, International Monetary Fund.
    6. F. Verona & M. M. F. Martins & I. Drumond, 2013. "(Un)anticipated Monetary Policy in a DSGE Model with a Shadow Banking System," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 9(3), pages 78-124, September.
    7. Brueckner, Jan K. & Calem, Paul S. & Nakamura, Leonard I., 2012. "Subprime mortgages and the housing bubble," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 71(2), pages 230-243.
    8. Ng, Eric C.Y. & Feng, Ning, 2016. "Housing market dynamics in a small open economy: Do external and news shocks matter?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 63(C), pages 64-88.
    9. Sandra Gomes & Caterina Mendicino, 2011. "Housing Market Dynamics: Any News?," Working Papers w201121, Banco de Portugal, Economics and Research Department.
    10. Krzysztof Olszewski & Hanna Augustyniak & Jacek Laszek & Robert Leszczynski & Joanna Waszczuk, 2016. "On the dynamics of the primary housing market and the forecasting of house prices," IFC Bulletins chapters,in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Combining micro and macro data for financial stability analysis, volume 41 Bank for International Settlements.
    11. Caterina Mendicino & Maria Tereza Punzi, 2011. "Stabilization Policy and Boom-Bust Cycles - Monetary and Macro-Prudential Rules," Economic Bulletin and Financial Stability Report Articles, Banco de Portugal, Economics and Research Department.
    12. Jan Bruha & Michal Hlavacek & Lubos Komarek, 2013. "Impacts of housing prices on the financial position of households," Occasional Publications - Chapters in Edited Volumes,in: CNB Financial Stability Report 2012/2013, chapter 0, pages 120-127 Czech National Bank, Research Department.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    boom-bust cycles; credit frictions; housing market;

    JEL classification:

    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy

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