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Housing Bubbles

Author

Listed:
  • David Lopez-Salido

    (Federal Reserve Board)

  • Oscar Arce

    (Bank of Spain)

Abstract

In this paper we use the notion of a housing bubble as an equilibrium in which some investors hold houses only for resale purposes and not for the expectation of a dividend, either in the form of rents or utility. We provide a life-cycle model where households face collateral constraints that tie their credit capacity to the value of their houses and examine the conditions under which housing bubbles can emerge. In such equilibria, the total housing stock is held by owners that extract utility from their homes, landlords that obtain rents, and investors. We show that an economy with tighter collateral constraints is more prone to bubbles which, in turn, tend to have a larger size but are less fragile in face of fund-draining shocks. Our environment also allows for pure bubbles on useless assets. We find that multiple equilibria in which the economy moves endogenously from a pure bubble to a housing bubble regime and vice versa are possible. This suggests that high asset price volatility may be a natural consequence of asset shortages (or excess funding) that depress interest rates sufficiently so as to sustain an initial bubble. We also examine some welfare implications of the two types of bubbles and discuss some mechanisms to rule out equilibria with housing bubbles.

Suggested Citation

  • David Lopez-Salido & Oscar Arce, 2008. "Housing Bubbles," 2008 Meeting Papers 134, Society for Economic Dynamics.
  • Handle: RePEc:red:sed008:134
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. How can housing bubbles happen?
      by Economic Logician in Economic Logic on 2008-08-18 19:16:00

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    Cited by:

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    2. Arce, Óscar & Manuel Campa, José & Gavilán, Ángel, 2013. "Macroeconomic adjustment under loose financing conditions in the construction sector," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 19-34.
    3. Fernando Ferreira & Joseph Gyourko, 2011. "Anatomy of the Beginning of the Housing Boom: U.S. Neighborhoods and Metropolitan Areas, 1993-2009," NBER Working Papers 17374, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    4. Hillebrand, Marten & Kikuchi, Tomoo, 2015. "A mechanism for booms and busts in housing prices," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 204-217.
    5. Aoki, Kosuke & Nikolov, Kalin, 2015. "Bubbles, banks and financial stability," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 74(C), pages 33-51.
    6. Alberto Martin & Jaume Ventura, 2018. "The Macroeconomics of Rational Bubbles: A User's Guide," Annual Review of Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 10(1), pages 505-539, August.
    7. Basco, Sergi, 2016. "Switching bubbles: From Outside to Inside Bubbles," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 87(C), pages 236-255.
    8. Daniele Bianchi & Massimo Guidolin & Francesco Ravazzolo, 2018. "Dissecting the 2007–2009 Real Estate Market Bust: Systematic Pricing Correction or Just a Housing Fad?," Journal of Financial Econometrics, Society for Financial Econometrics, vol. 16(1), pages 34-62.
    9. Lambertini, Luisa & Mendicino, Caterina & Punzi, Maria Teresa, 2017. "Expectations-driven cycles in the housing market," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 60(C), pages 297-312.
    10. Brueckner, Jan K. & Calem, Paul S. & Nakamura, Leonard I., 2012. "Subprime mortgages and the housing bubble," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 71(2), pages 230-243.
    11. Diego Vílchez, 2015. "Assessing the House Price Dynamics in Lima," IHEID Working Papers 09-2015, Economics Section, The Graduate Institute of International Studies.
    12. Michal Rubaszek & Margarita Rubio, 2020. "Does the rental housing market stabilize the economy? A micro and macro perspective," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 59(1), pages 233-257, July.
    13. Chao He & Randall Wright & Yu Zhu, 2015. "Housing and Liquidity," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 18(3), pages 435-455, July.
    14. Eva Zamrazilová & Václav Žďárek, 2014. "Two Czech crises revisited: pantarhei," Chapters, in: Ewald Nowotny & Doris Ritzberger-Grünwald & Peter Backé (ed.), Financial Cycles and the Real Economy, chapter 8, pages 114-144, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    15. Basco, Sergi, 2014. "Globalization and financial development: A model of the Dot-Com and the Housing Bubbles," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 92(1), pages 78-94.
    16. Mora-Sanguinetti, Juan S. & Rubio, Margarita, 2014. "Recent reforms in Spanish housing markets: An evaluation using a DSGE model," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 44(S1), pages 42-49.
    17. Miao, Jianjun, 2014. "Introduction to economic theory of bubbles," Journal of Mathematical Economics, Elsevier, vol. 53(C), pages 130-136.
    18. Bo Zhao, 2015. "Rational housing bubble," Economic Theory, Springer;Society for the Advancement of Economic Theory (SAET), vol. 60(1), pages 141-201, September.
    19. Miao, Jianjun & Wang, Pengfei & Zhou, Jing, 2015. "Asset bubbles, collateral, and policy analysis," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 76(S), pages 57-70.
    20. Mathieu Boullot, 2017. "Secular Stagnation, Liquidity Trap and Rational Asset Price Bubbles," Working Papers halshs-01295012, HAL.
    21. Michal Rubaszek, 2017. "Reforming housing rental market in a life-cycle model," Working Papers 2017-028, Warsaw School of Economics, Collegium of Economic Analysis.

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages
    • R21 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Household Analysis - - - Housing Demand

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