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Bubbles and Capital Flows

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  • Jaume Ventura

Abstract

This paper presents a stylized model of international trade and asset price bubbles. Its central insight is that bubbles tend to appear and expand in countries where productivity is low relative to the rest of the world. These bubbles absorb local savings, eliminating inefficient investments and liberating resources that are in part used to invest in high productivity countries. Through this channel, bubbles act as substitute for international capital flows, improving the international allocation of investment and reducing rate-of-return differentials across countries. This view of asset price bubbles has important implications for the way we think about economic growth and fluctuations. It also provides a simple account of some real world phenomenae that have been difficult to model before, such as the recurrence and depth of financial crises or their puzzling tendency to propagate across countries.

Suggested Citation

  • Jaume Ventura, 2002. "Bubbles and Capital Flows," NBER Working Papers 9304, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:9304
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    1. Aart Kraay & Norman Loayza & Luis Servén & Jaume Ventura, 2005. "Country Portfolios," Journal of the European Economic Association, MIT Press, vol. 3(4), pages 914-945, June.
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    Cited by:

    1. Robert Dobre & Daniel Bulin & Maria-Cristina Iorgulescu & Iulia Monica Oehler-Sincai & Olimpia State, 2020. "Artificial Intelligence Sector: The Next Technology Bubble? A Comparative Analysis with Dotcom Based on Stock Market Data," Romanian Economic Journal, Department of International Business and Economics from the Academy of Economic Studies Bucharest, vol. 22(76), pages 24-37, June.
    2. Aoki, Kosuke & Nikolov, Kalin, 2015. "Bubbles, banks and financial stability," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 74(C), pages 33-51.
    3. Aart Kraay & Jaume Ventura, 2007. "The Dot-Com Bubble, the Bush Deficits, and the US Current Account," NBER Chapters, in: G7 Current Account Imbalances: Sustainability and Adjustment, pages 457-496, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    4. Alberto Martin & Jaume Ventura, 2011. "Theoretical Notes on Bubbles and the Current Crisis," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 59(1), pages 6-40, April.
    5. Caballero, Ricardo J. & Krishnamurthy, Arvind, 2006. "Bubbles and capital flow volatility: Causes and risk management," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 53(1), pages 35-53, January.
    6. Óscar Arce & David López-Salido, 2011. "Housing Bubbles," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 3(1), pages 212-241, January.
    7. Maurico Obstfeld, 2004. "External adjustment," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 140(4), pages 541-568, December.
    8. Farhi, Emmanuel & Tirole, Jean, 2008. "Competing Liquidities: Corporate Securities Real Bonds and Bubbles," IDEI Working Papers 506, Institut d'Économie Industrielle (IDEI), Toulouse.
    9. Ippei Fujiwara & Koji Takahashi, 2012. "Asian Financial Linkage: Macro‐Finance Dissonance," Pacific Economic Review, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 17(1), pages 136-159, February.
    10. Romain Rancière & Aaron Tornell & Frank Westermann, 2002. "Crises and growth: A re-evaluation," Economics Working Papers 852, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra, revised Sep 2003.
    11. Jaume Ventura, 2005. "A Global View of Economic Growth," Working Papers 203, Barcelona School of Economics.
    12. Alberto Martin & Jaume Ventura, 2012. "Economic Growth with Bubbles," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 102(6), pages 3033-3058, October.
    13. Stefano Bosi & Cuong Le Van & Ngoc-Sang Pham, 2014. "Intertemporal equilibrium with production: bubbles and efficiency," Documents de travail du Centre d'Economie de la Sorbonne 14043, Université Panthéon-Sorbonne (Paris 1), Centre d'Economie de la Sorbonne.
    14. Soyoung Kim & Doo Yong Yang, 2014. "Do Capital Inflows Matter to Asset Prices? The Case of Korea," Palgrave Macmillan Books, in: Kyuil Chung & Soyoung Kim & Hail Park & Changho Choi & Hyun Song Shin (ed.), Volatile Capital Flows in Korea, chapter 3, pages 51-82, Palgrave Macmillan.
    15. Pablo Agnese & Jana Hromcová, 2018. "Bubble economics and structural change: the cases of Spain and France compared," Journal of Economic Policy Reform, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 21(1), pages 59-79, January.
    16. Christian Hellwig & Guido Lorenzoni, 2009. "Bubbles and Self-Enforcing Debt," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 77(4), pages 1137-1164, July.
    17. Asli Demirgüç-Kunt & Luis Servén, 2010. "Are All the Sacred Cows Dead? Implications of the Financial Crisis for Macro- and Financial Policies," The World Bank Research Observer, World Bank, vol. 25(1), pages 91-124, February.
    18. Christian Hellwig, 2003. "Bubbles and Self-enforcing Debt (October 2006, with Guido Lorenzoni)," UCLA Economics Online Papers 229, UCLA Department of Economics.
    19. Philip Lane, 2003. "The Macroeconomics of International Financial Trade," The Institute for International Integration Studies Discussion Paper Series iiisdp013, IIIS.
    20. Sean Joss Gossel & Nicholas Biekpe, 2012. "The effects of capital inflows on South Africa's economy," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 22(11), pages 923-938, June.
    21. Lijian Sun & Shengxing Zhang, 2008. "External Dependent Economy and Structural Real Estate Bubbles in China," China & World Economy, Institute of World Economics and Politics, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, vol. 16(1), pages 34-50, January.
    22. Bo Zhao, 2015. "Rational housing bubble," Economic Theory, Springer;Society for the Advancement of Economic Theory (SAET), vol. 60(1), pages 141-201, September.
    23. Abdul Rashid & Fazal Husain, 2013. "Capital Inflows, Inflation, and the Exchange Rate Volatility- An Investigation for Linear and Nonlinear Causal Linkages," The Pakistan Development Review, Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, vol. 52(3), pages 183-206.
    24. Soyoung Kim & Doo Yang, 2011. "The Impact of Capital Inflows on Asset Prices in Emerging Asian Economies: Is Too Much Money Chasing Too Little Good?," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 22(2), pages 293-315, April.
    25. Ricardo J. Caballero, 2006. "On the Macroeconomics of Asset Shortages," NBER Working Papers 12753, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • F15 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Economic Integration
    • F36 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Financial Aspects of Economic Integration

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