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Monetary Policy for a Bubbly World

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  • Vladimir Asriyan
  • Luca Fornaro
  • Alberto Martin
  • Jaume Ventura

Abstract

We propose a model of money, credit and bubbles, and use it to study the role of monetary policy in managing asset bubbles. In this model, bubbles pop up and burst, generating fluctuations in credit, investment and output. Two key insights emerge from the analysis. First, the growth rate of bubbles, which is driven by agents’ expectations, can be set in real or in nominal terms. This gives rise to a novel channel of monetary policy, as changes in the inflation rate affect the real growth rate of bubbles and their effect on economic activity. Crucially, this channel does not rely on contract incompleteness or price rigidities. Second, there is a natural limit on monetary policy’s ability to control bubbles: the zero-lower bound. When a bubble crashes, the economy may enter into a liquidity trap, a regime in which agents shift their portfolios away from bubbles - and the credit that they sustain - to money, reducing intermediation, investment and growth. We explore the implications of the model for the conduct of “conventional” and “unconventional” monetary policy, and we use the model to provide a broad interpretation of salient macroeconomic facts of the last two decades.

Suggested Citation

  • Vladimir Asriyan & Luca Fornaro & Alberto Martin & Jaume Ventura, 2016. "Monetary Policy for a Bubbly World," NBER Working Papers 22639, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:22639
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    1. Monetary policy for a bubbly world
      by Christian Zimmermann in NEP-DGE blog on 2016-10-21 18:53:58

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    Cited by:

    1. Alberto Martin & Jaume Ventura, 2018. "The Macroeconomics of Rational Bubbles: A User's Guide," Annual Review of Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 10(1), pages 505-539, August.
    2. Jordi Galí, 2016. "Monetary policy and bubbles in a new Keynesian model with overlapping generations," Economics Working Papers 1561, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra, revised Jan 2020.
    3. Saki Bigio & Eduardo Zilberman, 2020. "Speculation-Driven Business Cycles," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 865, Central Bank of Chile.
    4. Sebastian Di Tella, 2018. "A Neoclassical Theory of Liquidity Traps," 2018 Meeting Papers 96, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    5. Gauti B. Eggertsson & Neil R. Mehrotra & Jacob A. Robbins, 2019. "A Model of Secular Stagnation: Theory and Quantitative Evaluation," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 11(1), pages 1-48, January.
    6. Keshav Dogra & Sushant Acharya, 2017. "The Side Effects of Safe Asset Creation," 2017 Meeting Papers 1453, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    7. Gianluca Benigno & Luca Fornaro, 2018. "Stagnation Traps," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 85(3), pages 1425-1470.
    8. Edouard Schaal & Mathieu Taschereau-Dumouchel, 2020. "Herding Cycles," Working Papers 1166, Barcelona Graduate School of Economics.
    9. Jacopo Bonchi, 2020. "Natural Interest Rate and Asset Price Bubbles: How Bubbles Counteract Low Interest Rates," Working Papers 3/20, Sapienza University of Rome, DISS.
    10. Laura Nowzohour & Livio Stracca, 2020. "More Than A Feeling: Confidence, Uncertainty, And Macroeconomic Fluctuations," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 34(4), pages 691-726, September.
    11. Toan Phan & Andrew Hanson & Siddhartha Biswas, 2018. "Bubbly Recessions," 2018 Meeting Papers 440, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    12. Hanson, Andrew & Phan, Toan, 2017. "Bubbles, wage rigidity, and persistent slumps," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 151(C), pages 66-70.
    13. Barthelemy, Jean & Mengus, Eric & Plantin, Guillaume, 2019. "Public Liquidity Demand and Central Bank Independence," CEPR Discussion Papers 14160, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    14. Jacopo Bonchi, 2020. "Asset Price Bubbles and Monetary Policy: Revisiting the Nexus at the Zero Lower Bound," Working Papers 9/20, Sapienza University of Rome, DISS.
    15. Jean-Baptiste Michau & Yoshiyasu Ono & Matthias Schlegl, 2018. "Wealth Preference and Rational Bubbles," ISER Discussion Paper 1035, Institute of Social and Economic Research, Osaka University.
    16. Feng Dong & Jianjun Miao & Pengfei Wang, 2020. "Asset Bubbles and Monetary Policy," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 37, pages 68-98, August.
    17. Haozhou Tang, 2018. "Asset Price Bubbles and the Distribution of Firms," 2018 Meeting Papers 362, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    18. Zoë Venter, 2020. "The Interaction Between Conventional Monetary Policy and Financial Stability: Chile, Colombia, Japan, Portugal and the UK," Comparative Economic Studies, Palgrave Macmillan;Association for Comparative Economic Studies, vol. 62(3), pages 521-554, September.
    19. Donato Masciandaro, 2018. "Central Banking and Macroeconomic Ideas: Economics, Politics and History," BAFFI CAREFIN Working Papers 1858, BAFFI CAREFIN, Centre for Applied Research on International Markets Banking Finance and Regulation, Universita' Bocconi, Milano, Italy.
    20. Gadi Barlevy, 2018. "Bridging Between Policymakers’ and Economists’ Views on Bubbles," Economic Perspectives, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, issue 4, pages 1-21.

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • O40 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - General

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