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Monetary Policy for a Bubbly World

Author

Listed:
  • Vladimir Asriyan
  • Luca Fornaro
  • Alberto Martín
  • Jaume Ventura

Abstract

We propose a model of money, credit and bubbles, and use it to study the role of monetary policy in managing asset bubbles. In this model, bubbles pop up and burst, generating fluctuations in credit, investment and output. Two key insights emerge from the analysis. First, the growth rate of bubbles, which is driven by agents’ expectations, can be set in real or in nominal terms. This gives rise to a novel channel of monetary policy, as changes in the inflation rate affect the real growth rate of bubbles and their effect on economic activity. Crucially, this channel does not rely on contract incompleteness or price rigidities. Second, there is a natural limit on monetary policy’s ability to control bubbles: the zero-lower bound. When a bubble crashes, the economy may enter into a liquidity trap, a regime in which agents shift their portfolios away from bubbles - and the credit that they sustain - to money, reducing intermediation, investment and growth. We explore the implications of the model for the conduct of “conventional” and “unconventional” monetary policy, and we use the model to provide a broad interpretation of salient macroeconomic facts of the last two decades.

Suggested Citation

  • Vladimir Asriyan & Luca Fornaro & Alberto Martín & Jaume Ventura, 2016. "Monetary Policy for a Bubbly World," Working Papers 921, Barcelona Graduate School of Economics.
  • Handle: RePEc:bge:wpaper:921
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Gianluca Benigno & Luca Fornaro, 2018. "Stagnation Traps," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 85(3), pages 1425-1470.
    2. Bacchetta, Philippe & Benhima, Kenza & Kalantzis, Yannick, 2016. "Money and Capital in a Persistent Liquidity Trap," CEPR Discussion Papers 11369, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    3. Gourinchas, Pierre-Olivier & Rey, Hélène, 2016. "Real Interest Rates, Imbalances and the Curse of Regional Safe Asset Providers at the Zero Lower Bound," CEPR Discussion Papers 11503, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    4. Gauti B. Eggertsson & Neil R. Mehrotra, 2014. "A Model of Secular Stagnation," NBER Working Papers 20574, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    5. Lukasz Rachel & Thomas Smith, 2015. "Secular Drivers of the Global Real Interest Rate," Discussion Papers 1605, Centre for Macroeconomics (CFM).
    6. Jordi Galí & Luca Gambetti, 2015. "The Effects of Monetary Policy on Stock Market Bubbles: Some Evidence," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 7(1), pages 233-257, January.
    7. Claudio Borio & Craig Furfine & Philip Lowe, 2001. "Procyclicality of the financial system and financial stability: issues and policy options," BIS Papers chapters,in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Marrying the macro- and micro-prudential dimensions of financial stability, volume 1, pages 1-57 Bank for International Settlements.
    8. Felipe S. Iachan & Plamen T. Nenov & Alp Simsek, 2015. "The Choice Channel of Financial Innovation," NBER Working Papers 21686, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    9. Michael D. Bordo & Michael J. Dueker & David C. Wheelock, 2008. "Inflation, Monetary Policy and Stock Market Conditions," NBER Working Papers 14019, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Gianluca Benigno & Luca Fornaro, 2018. "Stagnation Traps," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 85(3), pages 1425-1470.
    2. Toan Phan & Andrew Hanson & Siddhartha Biswas, 2018. "Bubbly Recessions," 2018 Meeting Papers 440, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    3. Hanson, Andrew & Phan, Toan, 2017. "Bubbles, wage rigidity, and persistent slumps," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 151(C), pages 66-70.
    4. Alberto Martín & Jaume Ventura, 2017. "The Macroeconomics of Rational Bubbles: A User's Guide," Working Papers 989, Barcelona Graduate School of Economics.
    5. Pengfei Wang & Jianjun Miao & Feng Dong, 2017. "Asset Bubbles and Monetary Policy," 2017 Meeting Papers 205, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    6. Jordi Galí, 2016. "Monetary policy and bubbles in a new Keynesian model with overlapping generations," Economics Working Papers 1561, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra, revised Dec 2017.
    7. Biswas, Siddhartha & Hanson, Andrew & Phan, Toan, 2018. "Bubbly Recessions," Working Paper 18-5, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond.
    8. Eggertsson, Gauti B. & Mehrotra, Neil & Robbins, Jacob A., 2017. "A Model of Secular Stagnation: Theory and Quantitative Evaluation," Working Papers 742, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
    9. Keshav Dogra & Sushant Acharya, 2017. "The Side Effects of Safe Asset Creation," 2017 Meeting Papers 1453, Society for Economic Dynamics.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Bubbles; monetary policy; liquidity; traps; financial frictions;

    JEL classification:

    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy

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