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Short and Long Run Uncertainty

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  • Jose Maria Barrero
  • Nicholas Bloom
  • Ian Wright

Abstract

Uncertainty appears to have both a short-run and a long-run component, which we measure using firm and macro implied volatility data from options of 30 days to 10 years duration. We ask what may be driving uncertainty over these different time horizons, finding that oil price volatility is particularly important for short-run uncertainty, policy uncertainty is particularly important for long-run uncertainty, while currency volatility and CEO turnover appear to equally impact short- and long-run uncertainty. Examining a panel of over 4,000 firms from 1996 to 2013 we find that R&D is relatively more sensitive to long-run uncertainty than investment, and in turn investment is relatively more sensitive to long-run uncertainty than hiring. In a simulation model we investigate the channels underlying this pecking-order response to long-run uncertainty, and show that lower depreciation rates and higher adjustment costs lead R&D and investment to be more sensitive to longer-run uncertainty than hiring. Collectively, these results suggest that recent events that have raised long-run policy uncertainty may be particularly damaging to growth by reducing R&D and investment.

Suggested Citation

  • Jose Maria Barrero & Nicholas Bloom & Ian Wright, 2017. "Short and Long Run Uncertainty," NBER Working Papers 23676, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:23676
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Jerome Adda & Russell W. Cooper, 2003. "Dynamic Economics: Quantitative Methods and Applications," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262012014, March.
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    6. Egloff, Daniel & Leippold, Markus & Wu, Liuren, 2010. "The Term Structure of Variance Swap Rates and Optimal Variance Swap Investments," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 45(05), pages 1279-1310, October.
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    Cited by:

    1. Matteo Barigozzi & Marc Hallin & Stefano Soccorsi, 2019. "Time-Varying General Dynamic Factor Models and the Measurement of Financial Connectedness," Working Papers ECARES 2019-09, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
    2. repec:kap:iecepo:v:15:y:2018:i:3:d:10.1007_s10368-017-0380-8 is not listed on IDEAS
    3. Hossein Asgharian & Charlotte Christiansen & Ai Jun Hou, 2017. "Economic Policy Uncertainty and Long-Run Stock Market Volatility and Correlation," CREATES Research Papers 2018-12, Department of Economics and Business Economics, Aarhus University.
    4. Gigout, Timothee & Bricongne, Jean-Charles, 2019. "Explaining the Persistent Effect of Demand Uncertainty on Firm Growth," MPRA Paper 94228, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    5. Yanele Nyamela & Vasilios Plakandaras & Rangan Gupta, 2018. "Frequency-Dependent Real-Time Effects of Uncertainty in the United States: Evidence from Daily Data," Working Papers 201833, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
    6. repec:sls:ipmsls:v:35:y:2018:2 is not listed on IDEAS
    7. Antonakakis, Nikolaos & Gabauer, David & Gupta, Rangan & Plakandaras, Vasilios, 2018. "Dynamic connectedness of uncertainty across developed economies: A time-varying approach," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 166(C), pages 63-75.
    8. repec:eee:finana:v:63:y:2019:i:c:p:105-118 is not listed on IDEAS
    9. Rangan Gupta & Charl Jooste, 2018. "Unconventional monetary policy shocks in OECD countries: how important is the extent of policy uncertainty?," International Economics and Economic Policy, Springer, vol. 15(3), pages 683-703, July.
    10. repec:eee:jmacro:v:60:y:2019:i:c:p:163-179 is not listed on IDEAS
    11. repec:eee:eneeco:v:76:y:2018:i:c:p:115-126 is not listed on IDEAS
    12. De Simone, Lisa & Piotroski, Joseph D. & Tomy, Rimmy E., 2017. "Repatriation Taxes and Foreign Cash Holdings: The Impact of Anticipated Tax Policy," Research Papers 3507, Stanford University, Graduate School of Business.
    13. Bańbura, Marta & Albani, Maria & Ambrocio, Gene & Bursian, Dirk & Buss, Ginters & de Winter, Jasper & Gavura, Miroslav & Giordano, Claire & Júlio, Paulo & Le Roux, Julien & Lozej, Matija & Malthe-Thag, 2018. "Business investment in EU countries," Occasional Paper Series 215, European Central Bank.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E22 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Investment; Capital; Intangible Capital; Capacity

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