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Uncertainty Fluctuations: Measures, Effects and Macroeconomic Policy Challenges

In: International Macroeconomics in the Wake of the Global Financial Crisis

Author

Listed:
  • Laurent Ferrara

    (Banque de France)

  • Stéphane Lhuissier

    (Banque de France)

  • Fabien Tripier

    (Université Paris-Saclay (EPEE, Univ Evry) & CEPII)

Abstract

The world economy is plagued by uncertainties of various kinds from economic policy uncertainty to financial volatility. This chapter presents the main measures for uncertainty referred to in policy debates, explains how uncertainty affects the macro-economy and draws three lessons for policy-makers facing increasing uncertainties. First, macroeconomic policies have a direct role to play in stabilizing policy-related uncertainty. Second, financial uncertainty should be constrained through financial regulation. Third, the effectiveness of economic stabilization policies depends on the state of uncertainty and should be adapted accordingly.

Suggested Citation

  • Laurent Ferrara & Stéphane Lhuissier & Fabien Tripier, 2018. "Uncertainty Fluctuations: Measures, Effects and Macroeconomic Policy Challenges," Financial and Monetary Policy Studies, in: Laurent Ferrara & Ignacio Hernando & Daniela Marconi (ed.), International Macroeconomics in the Wake of the Global Financial Crisis, pages 159-181, Springer.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:fimchp:978-3-319-79075-6_9
    DOI: 10.1007/978-3-319-79075-6_9
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    Cited by:

    1. Comunale, Mariarosaria & Nguyen, Anh Dinh Minh, 2025. "A comprehensive MacroEconomic uncertainty measure for the euro area and its implications to COVID-19," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 157(C).
    2. Bertrand Candelon & Laurent Ferrara & Marc Joëts, 2021. "Global financial interconnectedness: a non-linear assessment of the uncertainty channel," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 53(25), pages 2865-2887, May.
    3. Costantini, Mauro & Sousa, Ricardo M., 2022. "What uncertainty does to euro area sovereign bond markets: Flight to safety and flight to quality," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 122(C).
    4. Michael Ryan, 2020. "An Anchor in Stormy Seas: Does Reforming Economic Institutions Reduce Uncertainty? Evidence from New Zealand," Working Papers in Economics 20/11, University of Waikato.
    5. Himounet, Nicolas, 2022. "Searching the nature of uncertainty: Macroeconomic and financial risks VS geopolitical and pandemic risks," International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 170(C), pages 1-31.
    6. Nicolas Himounet & Francisco Serranito & Julien Vauday, 2021. "Uncertainty is bad for Business. Really?," Working Papers 2021.03, International Network for Economic Research - INFER.
    7. Wenbo Jia & Hao Jiang & Yiqing Lyv & Stavros Sindakis, 2025. "Uncertainty’s Effect on China’s Knowledge-Based Economy: Transformation Beyond Trade," Journal of the Knowledge Economy, Springer;Portland International Center for Management of Engineering and Technology (PICMET), vol. 16(1), pages 4684-4725, March.
    8. Laurent FERRARA & Stéphane LHUISSIER & Fabien TRIPIER, 2018. "Uncertainty and macroeconomics: transmission channels and policy implications," Rue de la Banque, Banque de France, issue 61, April.
    9. Fatemeh Salimi Namin, 2020. "Exchange Rates, Stock Prices, and Stock Market Uncertainty," AMSE Working Papers 2037, Aix-Marseille School of Economics, France.
    10. Nino Buliskeria & Jaromir Baxa & Tomas Sestorad, 2023. "Uncertain Trends in Economic Policy Uncertainty," Working Papers 2023/16, Czech National Bank, Research and Statistics Department.
    11. Canh Phuc Nguyen & Thanh Dinh Su, 2022. "When ‘uncertainty’ becomes ‘unknown’: Influences of economic uncertainty on the shadow economy," Annals of Public and Cooperative Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 93(3), pages 677-716, September.
    12. Shinohara, Takeshi & Okuda, Tatsushi & Nakajima, Jouchi, 2021. "Characteristics of Uncertainty Indices in the Macroeconomy," Economic Review, Hitotsubashi University, vol. 72(3), pages 246-267, July.
    13. Muhammet Daştan & Kerem Karabulut & Ömer Yalçınkaya, 2024. "The time-varying impacts of global economic policy uncertainty on macroeconomic activity in a small open economy: the case of Turkey," Portuguese Economic Journal, Springer;Instituto Superior de Economia e Gestao, vol. 23(2), pages 275-311, May.
    14. Fatemeh Salimi, 2020. "Exchange Rates, Stock Prices, and Stock Market Uncertainty," Working Papers halshs-03007904, HAL.
    15. Kwamivi Mawuli Gomado, 2024. "Impact of uncertainty on economic growth: The role of pro‐market institutions in developing countries," Post-Print hal-04725308, HAL.
    16. Laurent Ferrara & Joseph Yapi, 2022. "Measuring exchange rate risks during periods of uncertainty," International Economics, CEPII research center, issue 170, pages 202-212.
    17. Ömer YALÇINKAYA & Muhammet DAŞTAN, 2020. "Effects of Global Economic, Political and Geopolitical Uncertainties on the Turkish Economy: A SVAR Analysis," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(1), pages 97-116, March.
    18. Nicolas Himounet, 2022. "Searching the nature of uncertainty: Macroeconomic and financial risks VS geopolitical and pandemic risks," Post-Print hal-05113023, HAL.
    19. Ugwu Ephraim & Ehinomen Christopher, 2024. "Macroeconomic Policy Coordination and Economic Growth Uncertainty in West Africa," Folia Oeconomica Stetinensia, Sciendo, vol. 24(1), pages 203-226.

    More about this item

    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • D80 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - General
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy

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