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Measuring exchange rate risks during periods of uncertainty

Author

Listed:
  • Laurent Ferrara
  • Joseph Yapi

Abstract

In this paper, we empirically look at the effects of uncertainty on risk measures for exchange rates, by focusing on two recent specific periods: the Brexit and the outbreak of the Covid-19. Based on a Fama regression extended with uncertainty measures, we forecast exchange rates in the short run through a quantile regression approach. By fitting a Skewed-Student distribution to the quantile forecasts, we put forward measures of risks for appreciation and depreciation of the expected exchange rates. We point out two interesting results. First, we show that the increase in Brexit-related uncertainty is strongly associated with higher future depreciation risks of the British Pound vs. the Euro, as a mistrust towards the British economy. Second, we find that the Covid-related uncertainty is perceived as a global risk, leading to a flight-to-safety move toward the US Dollar and associated high depreciation risks for emerging currencies.

Suggested Citation

  • Laurent Ferrara & Joseph Yapi, 2022. "Measuring exchange rate risks during periods of uncertainty," International Economics, CEPII research center, issue 170, pages 202-212.
    • Handle: RePEc:cii:cepiie:2022-q2-170-13
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    Cited by:

    1. Gole, Purva & Perego, Erica & Turcu, Camelia, 2024. "UIP deviations in times of uncertainty: Not all countries behave alike," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 242(C).
    2. Cristiano Salvagnin & Aldo Glielmo & Maria Elena De Giuli & Antonietta Mira, 2024. "Investigating the price determinants of the European Emission Trading System: a non-parametric approach," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 24(10), pages 1529-1544, October.
    3. Janus, Jakub, 2025. "Global financial risk and uncovered interest parity premia in Central and Eastern Europe," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 148(C).
    4. Huang, Xiaowei & He, Chenyu & Zhang, Man, 2024. "Economic policy uncertainty and capital flows' tail risk in China," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 85(C).

    More about this item

    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods
    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange

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