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UIP deviations in times of uncertainty: Not all countries behave alike

Author

Listed:
  • Purva Gole

    (EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales)

  • Erica Perego

    (CEPII - Centre d'Etudes Prospectives et d'Informations Internationales - Centre d'analyse stratégique)

  • Camelia Turcu

    (LEO - Laboratoire d'Économie d'Orleans [2022-...] - UO - Université d'Orléans - UT - Université de Tours - UCA - Université Clermont Auvergne)

Abstract

In this paper, we reconsider the role of uncertainty in explaining uncovered interest rate parity (UIP) deviations by focusing on 60 emerging and developing (EMDE) and advanced (AE) economies, over the period 1995M1–2023M3. We show that differentiating between EMDE currencies and AE currencies is crucial for understanding UIP deviations as the behaviour of excess returns differs in the two groups in periods of uncertainty: deviations become wider for EMDEs and narrow for AEs. These new results are consistent with the idea that in periods of uncertainty, global investors might change their risk preferences and move from high currency-risk investments in EMDEs towards less risky ones in AEs. This evidence holds for both the short-run and long-run UIP, and becomes stronger since the Global Financial Crisis (GFC).

Suggested Citation

  • Purva Gole & Erica Perego & Camelia Turcu, 2024. "UIP deviations in times of uncertainty: Not all countries behave alike," Post-Print hal-04711887, HAL.
    • Handle: RePEc:hal:journl:hal-04711887
    DOI: 10.1016/j.econlet.2024.111848
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    Cited by:

    1. Oriola, Hugo & Saadaoui, Jamel, 2025. "Exchange rate reaction to international organization loans and geopolitical preferences," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 248(C).
    2. Park, Cyn-Young & Shin, Kwanho, 2025. "The development of local currency bond markets and uncovered interest rate parity," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 154(C).
    3. Janus, Jakub, 2025. "Global financial risk and uncovered interest parity premia in Central and Eastern Europe," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 148(C).

    More about this item

    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • F21 - International Economics - - International Factor Movements and International Business - - - International Investment; Long-Term Capital Movements
    • F30 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - General
    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics

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