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Why does risk matter more in recessions than in expansions?

Author

Listed:
  • Martin M. Andreasen
  • Giovanni Caggiano
  • Efrem Castelnuovo
  • Giovanni Pellegrino

Abstract

This paper uses a nonlinear vector autoregression and a non-recursive identification strategy to show that an equal-sized uncertainty shock generates a larger contraction in real activity when growth is low (as in recessions) than when growth is high (as in expansions). An estimated New Keynesian model with recursive preferences and approximated to third order around its risky steady state replicates these state-dependent responses. The key mechanism behind this result is that firms display a stronger upward nominal pricing bias in recessions than in expansions, because recessions imply higher inflation volatility and higher marginal utility of consumption than expansions.

Suggested Citation

  • Martin M. Andreasen & Giovanni Caggiano & Efrem Castelnuovo & Giovanni Pellegrino, 2021. "Why does risk matter more in recessions than in expansions?," CAMA Working Papers 2021-83, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
    • Handle: RePEc:een:camaaa:2021-83
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    File URL: https://crawford.anu.edu.au/sites/default/files/2025-08/83_2021_Andreasen_Caggiano_Castelnuovo_Pellegrino.pdf
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    Cited by:

    1. Efrem Castelnuovo, 2023. "Uncertainty before and during COVID‐19: A survey," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 37(3), pages 821-864, July.
    2. Lastauskas, Povilas & Nguyen, Anh Dinh Minh, 2023. "Global impacts of US monetary policy uncertainty shocks," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 145(C).
    3. Giovanni Pellegrino & Federico Ravenna & Gabriel Züllig, 2021. "The Impact of Pessimistic Expectations on the Effects of COVID‐19‐Induced Uncertainty in the Euro Area," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 83(4), pages 841-869, August.
    4. Ambrocio, Gene, 2020. "Inflationary household uncertainty shocks," Research Discussion Papers 5/2020, Bank of Finland.
    5. Ivan Jaccard, 2024. "Monetary Asymmetries Without (And With) Price Stickiness," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 65(2), pages 1003-1047, May.
    6. Efrem Castelnuovo & Lorenzo Mori, 2025. "Uncertainty, Skewness, and the Business Cycle Through the MIDAS Lens," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 40(1), pages 89-107, January.
    7. Ambrocio, Gene, 2020. "Inflationary household uncertainty shocks," Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 5/2020, Bank of Finland.

    More about this item

    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles

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