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The Impact of Pessimistic Expectations on the Effects of COVID-19-Induced Uncertainty in the Euro Area

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  • Giovanni Pellegrino

    (Department of Economics and Business Economics, Aarhus University)

  • Federico Ravenna

    (Danmarks Nationalbank, University of Copenhagen, HEC Montreal, CEPR)

  • Gabriel Züllig

    (Danmarks Nationalbank, University of Copenhagen)

Abstract

We estimate an Interacted-VAR model allowing for the impact of uncertainty shocks to depend on the average outlook of the economy measured by survey data. We find that, in response to the same uncertainty shock, industrial production and inflation’s peak decrease is around three and a half times larger during pessimistic times. We build scenarios for a path of innovations in uncertainty consistent with the COVID-19-induced shock. Industrial production is predicted to experience a year-over-year peak loss of between 15:1% and 19% peaking between September and December 2020, and subsequently to recover with a rebound to pre-crisis levels between May and August 2021. The large impact is the result of an extreme shock to uncertainty occurring at a time of very negative expectations on the economic outlook.

Suggested Citation

  • Giovanni Pellegrino & Federico Ravenna & Gabriel Züllig, 2020. "The Impact of Pessimistic Expectations on the Effects of COVID-19-Induced Uncertainty in the Euro Area," Economics Working Papers 2020-12, Department of Economics and Business Economics, Aarhus University.
    • Handle: RePEc:aah:aarhec:2020-12
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    3. Karaki, Mohamad B. & Rangaraju, Sandeep Kumar, 2023. "The confidence channel of U.S. financial uncertainty: Evidence from industry-level data," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 129(C).
    4. Miescu, Mirela & Rossi, Raffaele, 2021. "COVID-19-induced shocks and uncertainty," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 139(C).
    5. Montserrat Guillen & Miguel Santolino & Xenxo Vidal-Llana, 2022. ""Inequality of subjective economic uncertainty and individual economic prospects in the pandemic period"," IREA Working Papers 202202, University of Barcelona, Research Institute of Applied Economics, revised Feb 2022.
    6. Cerqueti, Roy & Tramontana, Fabio & Ventura, Marco, 2022. "The complex interplay between COVID-19 and economic activity," Mathematical Social Sciences, Elsevier, vol. 119(C), pages 97-107.
    7. Giovanni Pellegrino & Efrem Castelnuovo & Giovanni Caggiano, 2020. "Uncertainty and Monetary Policy during Extreme Events," CESifo Working Paper Series 8561, CESifo.
    8. Lorena Skufi & Adam Geršl, 2023. "Using Macrofinancial Models to Simulate Macroeconomic Developments During the COVID-19 Pandemic: The Case of Albania," Eastern European Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 61(5), pages 517-553, September.
    9. Mirko Licchetta & Giovanni Mattozzi & Rafal Raciborski & Rupert Willis, 2022. "Economic Adjustment in the Euro Area and the United States during the COVID-19 Crisis," European Economy - Discussion Papers 160, Directorate General Economic and Financial Affairs (DG ECFIN), European Commission.
    10. Ambrocio, Gene & Hasan, Iftekhar, 2022. "Belief polarization and Covid-19," Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 10/2022, Bank of Finland.
    11. Andrea Carriero & Todd E. Clark & Massimiliano Marcellino & Elmar Mertens, 2020. "Measuring Uncertainty and Its Effects in the COVID-19 Era," Working Papers 20-32R, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, revised 05 Jan 2022.
    12. Kizys, Renatas & Tzouvanas, Panagiotis & Donadelli, Michael, 2021. "From COVID-19 herd immunity to investor herding in international stock markets: The role of government and regulatory restrictions," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 74(C).
    13. Steven Buigut and Burcu Kapar, 2022. "Do COVID-19 Incidence and Government Intervention Influence Media Indices?," Bulletin of Applied Economics, Risk Market Journals, vol. 9(2), pages 79-100.
    14. repec:zbw:bofrdp:2020_011 is not listed on IDEAS
    15. Sadiq, Mohd & Bharti, Kumkum & Adil, Mohd & Singh, Ramendra, 2021. "Why do consumers buy green apparel? The role of dispositional traits, environmental orientation, environmental knowledge, and monetary incentive," Journal of Retailing and Consumer Services, Elsevier, vol. 62(C).
    16. Caggiano, Giovanni & Castelnuovo, Efrem & Kima, Richard, 2020. "The global effects of Covid-19-induced uncertainty," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 194(C).

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    COVID-19; Uncertainty shocks; Non-Linear Structural Vector AutoRegressions; Consumer Confidence;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles

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