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Credit Risk in the Euro Area

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  • Simon Gilchrist
  • Benoit Mojon

Abstract

We construct credit risk indicators for euro area banks and non†financial corporations. These indicators reveal that the financial crisis of 2008 dramatically increased the cost of market funding for both banks and non†financial firms. In contrast, the prior recession following the 2000 US dot†com bust led to widening credit spreads of non†financial firms but had no effect on the credit spreads of financial firms. The 2008 financial crisis also led to a systematic divergence in credit spreads for financial firms across national boundaries. Credit spreads provide substantial predictive content for real activity and lending measures for the euro area as a whole and for individual countries.

Suggested Citation

  • Simon Gilchrist & Benoit Mojon, 2018. "Credit Risk in the Euro Area," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 128(608), pages 118-158, February.
  • Handle: RePEc:wly:econjl:v:128:y:2018:i:608:p:118-158
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    File URL: https://doi.org/10.1111/ecoj.12427
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    Cited by:

    1. Gaballo, Gaetano & Zetlin-Jones, Ariel, 2016. "Bailouts, moral hazard and banks׳ home bias for Sovereign debt," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 81(C), pages 70-85.
    2. Monica Billio & Roberto Casarin & Francesco Ravazzolo & Herman K. van Dijk, 2013. "Interactions between eurozone and US booms and busts: A Bayesian panel Markov-switching VAR model," Working Papers 2013:17, Department of Economics, University of Venice "Ca' Foscari", revised 2014.
    3. Arianna Miglietta & Cristina Picillo & Mario Pietrunti, 2015. "The impact of CCPs' margin policies on repo markets," BIS Working Papers 515, Bank for International Settlements.
    4. Sahuc, Jean-Guillaume, 2016. "The ECB’s asset purchase programme: A model-based evaluation," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 145(C), pages 136-140.
    5. repec:wly:japmet:v:31:y:2016:i:7:p:1352-1370 is not listed on IDEAS
    6. Altavilla, Carlo & Darracq Pariès, Matthieu & Nicoletti, Giulio, 2015. "Loan supply, credit markets and the euro area financial crisis," Working Paper Series 1861, European Central Bank.
    7. Avouyi-Dovi, S. & Horny, G. & Sevestre, P., 2017. "The stability of short-term interest rates pass-through in the euro area during the financial market and sovereign debt crises," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 79(C), pages 74-94.
    8. Cristina Arellano & Andrew Atkeson & Mark Wright, 2016. "External and Public Debt Crises," NBER Macroeconomics Annual, University of Chicago Press, vol. 30(1), pages 191-244.
    9. F. Koulischer, 2015. "Asymmetric shocks in a currency union: The role of central bank collateral policy," Working papers 554, Banque de France.
    10. Thomas Brand & Fabien Tripier, 2014. "Risk shocks and divergence between the Euro area and the US," Working Papers 2014-11, CEPII research center.
    11. Andrea Zaghini, 2017. "The CSPP at work: yield heterogeneity and the portfolio rebalancing channel," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 1157, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    12. Aykut Ekinci, 2016. "The Effect of Credit and Market Risk on Bank Performance: Evidence from Turkey," International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, Econjournals, vol. 6(2), pages 427-434.
    13. Anamaria Illes & Marco Lombardi & Paul Mizen, 2015. "Why Did Bank Lending Rates Diverge from Policy Rates After the Financial Crisis?," Discussion Papers 2015/05, University of Nottingham, Centre for Finance, Credit and Macroeconomics (CFCM).
    14. C. Cahn & J. Matheron & J-G. Sahuc, 2014. "Assessing the macroeconomic effects of LTROS," Working papers 528, Banque de France.
    15. Monica Billio & Roberto Casarin & Francesco Ravazzolo & Herman K. Van Dijk, 2016. "Interconnections Between Eurozone and us Booms and Busts Using a Bayesian Panel Markov‐Switching VAR Model," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 31(7), pages 1352-1370, November.
    16. Schock, Matthias, 2015. "Predicting Economic Activity via Eurozone Yield Spreads: Impact of Credit Risk," Hannover Economic Papers (HEP) dp-542, Leibniz Universität Hannover, Wirtschaftswissenschaftliche Fakultät.
    17. Pablo Cuba-Borda & Alexander Mechanick & Andrea Raffo, 2018. "Monitoring the World Economy : A Global Conditions Index," IFDP Notes 2018-06-15, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    18. Zaghini, Andrea, 2017. "A tale of fragmentation: Corporate funding in the euro-area bond market," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 59-68.
    19. repec:dau:papers:123456789/15030 is not listed on IDEAS
    20. Schock, Matthias, 2014. "Do Eurozone yield spreads predict recessions?," Hannover Economic Papers (HEP) dp-532, Leibniz Universität Hannover, Wirtschaftswissenschaftliche Fakultät.
    21. repec:ibn:ijefaa:v:9:y:2017:i:9:p:175-181 is not listed on IDEAS
    22. Guido Bulligan & Davide Delle Monache, 2018. "Financial markets effects of ECB unconventional monetary policy announcements," Questioni di Economia e Finanza (Occasional Papers) 424, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    23. Mazet-Sonilhac, C. & Mésonnier, J.-S., 2016. "Le coût des capitaux propres des grandes entreprises non financières en zone euro : une évaluation sur la dernière décennie," Bulletin de la Banque de France, Banque de France, issue 207, pages 33-45.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E43 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects
    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy

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