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Regime-Dependent Effects of Uncertainty Shocks: A Structural Interpretation

Author

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  • Stéphane Lhuissier
  • Fabien Tripier

Abstract

Using a Markov-switching VAR, we show that the effects of uncertainty shocks on output are four times higher in a regime of economic distress than in a tranquil regime. We then provide a structural interpretation of these facts. To do so, we develop a business cycle model, in which agents are aware of the possibility of regime changes when forming expectations. The model is estimated using a Bayesian minimum distance estimator that minimizes, over the set of structural parameters, the distance between the regime-switching VAR-based impulse response functions and those implied by the model. Our results point to changes in the degree of financial frictions. We discuss the implications of this structural interpretation and show that the expectation effect of regime switching in financial conditions is an important component of the financial accelerator mechanism. If agents hold pessimistic expectations about future financial conditions, then shocks are amplified and transmitted more rapidly to the economy.

Suggested Citation

  • Stéphane Lhuissier & Fabien Tripier, 2019. "Regime-Dependent Effects of Uncertainty Shocks: A Structural Interpretation," Working papers 714, Banque de France.
  • Handle: RePEc:bfr:banfra:714
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    File URL: https://publications.banque-france.fr/sites/default/files/medias/documents/working-paper-2019-03-18.pdf
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    Cited by:

    1. Stéphane Lhuissier, 2019. "Bayesian Inference for Markov-switching Skewed Autoregressive Models," Working papers 726, Banque de France.
    2. Giovanni Pellegrino & Federico Ravenna & Gabriel Züllig, 2020. "The Impact of Pessimistic Expectations on the Effects of COVID-19-Induced Uncertainty in the Euro Area," Economics Working Papers 2020-12, Department of Economics and Business Economics, Aarhus University.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Uncertainty shocks; Regime switching; Financial frictions; Expectation effects.;

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy

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