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Market timing, investment, and risk management

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  • Bolton, Patrick
  • Chen, Hui
  • Wang, Neng

Abstract

The 2008 financial crisis exemplifies significant uncertainties in corporate financing conditions. We develop a unified dynamic q-theoretic framework where firms have both a precautionary-savings motive and a market-timing motive for external financing and payout decisions, induced by stochastic financing conditions. The model predicts (1) cuts in investment and payouts in bad times and equity issues in good times even without immediate financing needs; (2) a positive correlation between equity issuance and stock repurchase waves. We show quantitatively that real effects of financing shocks may be substantially smoothed out as a result of firms' adjustments in anticipation of future financial crises.

Suggested Citation

  • Bolton, Patrick & Chen, Hui & Wang, Neng, 2013. "Market timing, investment, and risk management," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 109(1), pages 40-62.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:jfinec:v:109:y:2013:i:1:p:40-62
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jfineco.2013.02.006
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Risk management; Liquidity; Financial crisis; Market timing; Investment; q theory;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E22 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Investment; Capital; Intangible Capital; Capacity
    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • G30 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - General

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