IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/
MyIDEAS: Login to save this paper or follow this series

The Equity Share in New Issues and Aggregate Stock Returns

  • Malcolm Baker
  • Jeffrey Wurgler

The share of equity issues in total new equity and debt issues is a strong predictor of U.S. stock market returns between 1928 and 1997. In particular, firms issue relatively more equity than debt just before periods of low market returns. The equity share in new issues has stable predictive power in both halves of the sample period, and after controlling for other known predictors. We do not find support for efficient market ex

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.

File URL: http://icfpub.som.yale.edu/publications/2589
Download Restriction: no

Paper provided by Yale School of Management in its series Yale School of Management Working Papers with number ysm124.

as
in new window

Length:
Date of creation: 01 Aug 1999
Date of revision: 01 Jan 2009
Handle: RePEc:ysm:somwrk:ysm124
Contact details of provider: Web page: http://icf.som.yale.edu/

More information through EDIRC

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

as in new window
  1. Owen Lamont, 1998. "Earnings and Expected Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 53(5), pages 1563-1587, October.
  2. Stein, Jeremy C., 1996. "Rational Capital Budgeting in an Irrational World," Scholarly Articles 3708373, Harvard University Department of Economics.
  3. Geoffrey H. Moore, 1983. "Security Markets and Business Cycles," NBER Chapters, in: Business Cycles, Inflation, and Forecasting, 2nd edition, pages 139-160 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  4. Pagano, Marco & Panetta, Fabio & Zingales, Luigi, 1996. "Why Do Companies Go Public? An Empirical Analysis," CEPR Discussion Papers 1332, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  5. Seyhun, H Nejat, 1992. "Why Does Aggregate Insider Trading Predict Future Stock Returns?," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 107(4), pages 1303-31, November.
  6. Boudoukh, Jacob & Richardson, Matthew & Smith, Tom, 1993. "Is the ex ante risk premium always positive? *1: A new approach to testing conditional asset pricing models," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(3), pages 387-408, December.
  7. Ibbotson, Roger G & Jaffe, Jeffrey F, 1975. ""Hot Issue" Markets," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 30(4), pages 1027-42, September.
  8. Leslie A. Jeng & Andrew Metrick & Richard Zeckhauser, 1999. "The Profits to Insider Trading: A Performance-Evaluation Perspective," NBER Working Papers 6913, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  9. Lerner, Joshua, 1994. "Venture capitalists and the decision to go public," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 35(3), pages 293-316, June.
  10. Loughran, Tim & Ritter, Jay R, 1997. " The Operating Performance of Firms Conducting Seasoned Equity Offerings," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 52(5), pages 1823-50, December.
  11. Bagwell, Laurie Simon & Shoven, John B, 1989. "Cash Distributions to Shareholders," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 3(3), pages 129-40, Summer.
  12. Stambaugh, Robert F., 1999. "Predictive regressions," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(3), pages 375-421, December.
  13. John Y. Campbell & Robert J. Shiller, 1986. "The Dividend-Price Ratio and Expectations of Future Dividends and Discount Factors," NBER Working Papers 2100, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  14. Lee, Inmoo, 1997. " Do Firms Knowingly Sell Overvalued Equity?," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 52(4), pages 1439-66, September.
  15. Marsh, Paul, 1982. " The Choice between Equity and Debt: An Empirical Study," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 37(1), pages 121-44, March.
  16. Loughran, Tim & Ritter, Jay R. & Rydqvist, Kristian, 1995. "Initial public offerings: International insights," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 3(1), pages 139-140, May.
  17. Charles Lee & Andrei Shleifer & Richard Thaler, 1990. "Investor Sentiment and the Closed-End Fund Puzzle," NBER Working Papers 3465, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  18. Choe, Hyuk & Masulis, Ronald W. & Nanda, Vikram, 1993. "Common stock offerings across the business cycle : Theory and evidence," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 1(1), pages 3-31, June.
  19. W. Braddock Hickman, 1953. "The Volume of Corporate Bond Financing Since 1900," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number hick53-1.
  20. Fama, Eugene F. & French, Kenneth R., 1988. "Dividend yields and expected stock returns," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 22(1), pages 3-25, October.
  21. Merton, Robert C., 1986. "Capital market theory and the pricing of financial securities," Working papers 1818-86., Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Sloan School of Management.
  22. Eugene F. Fama & Kenneth R. French, . "The Corporate Cost of Capital and the Return on Corporate Investment," CRSP working papers 469, Center for Research in Security Prices, Graduate School of Business, University of Chicago.
  23. Fama, Eugene F. & Schwert, G. William, 1977. "Asset returns and inflation," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 5(2), pages 115-146, November.
  24. Geoffrey H. Moore, 1983. "Some Secular Changes in Business Cycles," NBER Chapters, in: Business Cycles, Inflation, and Forecasting, 2nd edition, pages 161-168 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  25. William R. Nelson, 1999. "The aggregate change in shares and the level of stock prices," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 1999-08, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  26. Peavy, John W, III, 1990. "Returns on Initial Public Offerings of Closed-End Funds," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 3(4), pages 695-708.
  27. Pontiff, Jeffrey & Schall, Lawrence D., 1998. "Book-to-market ratios as predictors of market returns," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(2), pages 141-160, August.
  28. David Ikenberry & Josef Lakonishok & Theo Vermaelen, 1994. "Market Underreaction to Open Market Share Repurchases," NBER Working Papers 4965, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  29. Loughran, Tim & Ritter, Jay R, 1995. " The New Issues Puzzle," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 50(1), pages 23-51, March.
  30. Teoh, Siew Hong & Welch, Ivo & Wong, T. J., 1998. "Earnings management and the underperformance of seasoned equity offerings," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(1), pages 63-99, October.
  31. Eckbo, B. Espen & Masulis, Ronald W. & Norli, Oyvind, 2000. "Seasoned public offerings: resolution of the 'new issues puzzle'," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 56(2), pages 251-291, May.
  32. Ritter, Jay R, 1991. " The Long-run Performance of Initial Public Offerings," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 46(1), pages 3-27, March.
  33. Mikkelson, Wayne H. & Partch, M. Megan & Shah, Kshitij, 1997. "Ownership and operating performance of companies that go public," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 44(3), pages 281-307, June.
  34. Rajan, Raghuram & Servaes, Henri, 1997. " Analyst Following of Initial Public Offerings," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 52(2), pages 507-29, June.
  35. Jain, Bharat A & Kini, Omesh, 1994. " The Post-Issue Operating Performance of IPO Firms," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 49(5), pages 1699-1726, December.
  36. Fama, Eugene F, 1970. "Efficient Capital Markets: A Review of Theory and Empirical Work," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 25(2), pages 383-417, May.
  37. Fama, Eugene F & French, Kenneth R, 1988. "Permanent and Temporary Components of Stock Prices," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 96(2), pages 246-73, April.
  38. Spiess, D. Katherine & Affleck-Graves, John, 1995. "Underperformance in long-run stock returns following seasoned equity offerings," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 38(3), pages 243-267, July.
  39. Loughran, Tim & Vijh, Anand M, 1997. " Do Long-Term Shareholders Benefit from Corporate Acquisitions?," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 52(5), pages 1765-90, December.
Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ysm:somwrk:ysm124. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: ()

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

This information is provided to you by IDEAS at the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis using RePEc data.