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Financial intermediaries’ instability and euro area macroeconomic dynamics

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  • Lhuissier, Stéphane

Abstract

Fitting a Markov-switching structural vector autoregression to euro area data, we show that, after taking into account heteroskedasticity, the differences in the behavior of the economy between tranquil and financial distress periods (e.g., Great Recession and sovereign debt crisis) reflect variations in the transmission mechanism. When and only when a period of financial distress occurs, disruptions in financial intermediation trigger adverse effects for the real economy and turn out to be the primary source of business cycle fluctuations. Finally, we provide strong evidence that ECB interventions in the financial sector had beneficial effects on the real economy during the sovereign debt crisis.

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  • Lhuissier, Stéphane, 2017. "Financial intermediaries’ instability and euro area macroeconomic dynamics," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 98(C), pages 49-72.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:eecrev:v:98:y:2017:i:c:p:49-72
    DOI: 10.1016/j.euroecorev.2017.06.004
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    Cited by:

    1. Lhuissier, Stéphane, 2022. "Financial conditions and macroeconomic downside risks in the euro area," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 143(C).
    2. Christian Pfister & Jean-Guillaume Sahuc, 2020. "Unconventional monetary policies: A stock-taking exercise," Revue d'économie politique, Dalloz, vol. 130(2), pages 137-169.
    3. Stéphane Lhuissier, 2019. "Bayesian Inference for Markov-switching Skewed Autoregressive Models," Working papers 726, Banque de France.
    4. Stéphane Lhuissier & Fabien Tripier, 2021. "Regime‐dependent effects of uncertainty shocks: A structural interpretation," Quantitative Economics, Econometric Society, vol. 12(4), pages 1139-1170, November.
    5. Panagiota Makrychoriti & Fotios Pasiouras & Menelaos Tasiou, 2022. "Financial stress and economic growth: The moderating role of trust," Kyklos, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 75(1), pages 48-74, February.
    6. Edgar Löw & Marc Erkelenz, 2022. "Long and Short‐term Investments by European Banks – Trends Since the IASB Published IFRS 9," Australian Accounting Review, CPA Australia, vol. 32(4), pages 440-459, December.
    7. Apostolakis, Georgios N. & Giannellis, Nikolaos & Papadopoulos, Athanasios P., 2019. "Financial stress and asymmetric shocks transmission within the Eurozone. How fragile is the common monetary policy?," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 50(C).
    8. Stéphane Lhuissier & Benoit Nguyen, 2021. "The Dynamic Effects of the ECB s Asset Purchases: a Survey-Based Identification," Working papers 806, Banque de France.

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    JEL classification:

    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • C11 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Bayesian Analysis: General
    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models

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