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Global impacts of US monetary policy uncertainty shocks

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  • Lastauskas, Povilas
  • Nguyen, Anh Dinh Minh

Abstract

We build a new empirical model to estimate the global impact of an increase in the volatility of US monetary policy shocks. Specifically, we admit time-varying variances of local structural shocks from a stochastic volatility specification. By allowing for rich dynamic interaction between the endogenous variables and time-varying volatility in the global setting, we find that US interest rate uncertainty not only drives local output and inflation volatility, but also causes declines in output, inflation, and the interest rate. Moreover, we document strong global impacts, making the world move in a very synchronous way. Crucially, spillback effects are found to be significant even for the US economy. JEL Classification: C32, C54, E52, E58, F44

Suggested Citation

  • Lastauskas, Povilas & Nguyen, Anh Dinh Minh, 2021. "Global impacts of US monetary policy uncertainty shocks," Working Paper Series 2513, European Central Bank.
    • Handle: RePEc:ecb:ecbwps:20212513
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    5. Kayani, Umar & Hassan, M. Kabir & Dejan, Austin & Khan, Maaz & Nawaz, Farrukh, 2024. "Assessment of Economic Policy Uncertainty spillovers: A cross-border analysis of global and BRIC economies," International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 179(C).
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    7. Gao, Jieying & Qin, Qi & Zhou, Shengjie, 2025. "Spillover effects of US economic policy uncertainty on emerging markets: Evidence from transnational supply chains," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 100(C).
    8. Povilas Lastauskas & Julius Stakėnas, 2022. "Dancing Alone or Together: The Dynamic Effects of Independent and Common Monetary Policies," Advances in Econometrics, in: Essays in Honor of M. Hashem Pesaran: Prediction and Macro Modeling, volume 43, pages 217-241, Emerald Group Publishing Limited.
    9. Narayan, Seema & Cirikisuva, Salote & Naivutu, Revoni, 2023. "A hybrid NKPC inflation model for the small Island state of Fiji," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 78(C), pages 873-886.
    10. Arata ITO & Masahiro SATO & Rui OTA, 2024. "Content-based Metric on Monetary Policy Uncertainty by Using Large Language Models," Discussion papers 24080, Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry (RIETI).
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    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • C54 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Quantitative Policy Modeling
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies
    • F44 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - International Business Cycles

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