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The financial market effects of the ECB's asset purchase programs

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  • Lewis, Vivien
  • Roth, Markus

Abstract

The European Central Bank's asset purchase programs, while intended to stabilize the economy, may have unintended side effects on financial stability. This paper aims at gauging the effects on financial markets, the banking sector, and lending to non-financial firms. Using a structural vector autoregression analysis, we find a positive effect on output and, after some delay, also on prices in Germany. At the same time, financial stress increases significantly, driven by stock market volatility, higher liquidity premiums and contagion risks. Bank lending in Germany and in the euro area periphery expands, even though borrowing does not become cheaper. This might indicate that more credit is extended to riskier borrowers.

Suggested Citation

  • Lewis, Vivien & Roth, Markus, 2019. "The financial market effects of the ECB's asset purchase programs," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 43(C), pages 40-52.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:finsta:v:43:y:2019:i:c:p:40-52
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jfs.2019.05.001
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    Cited by:

    1. Jef Boeckx & Maarten Dossche & Alessandro Galesi & Boris Hofmann & Gert Peersman, 2019. "Do SVARs with sign restrictions not identify unconventional monetary policy shocks?," Working Papers 1926, Banco de España;Working Papers Homepage.
    2. Adam Elbourne, 2019. "SVARs, the central bank balance sheet and the effects of unconventional monetary policy in the euro area," CPB Discussion Paper 407.rdf, CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis.
    3. Hristov, Nikolay & Hülsewig, Oliver & Scharler, Johann, 2020. "Unconventional monetary policy shocks in the euro area and the sovereign-bank nexus," Discussion Papers 19/2020, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    4. Alessio Anzuini, 2020. "The non-linear effects of the Fed's asset purchases," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 1280, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    5. Paludkiewicz, Karol, 2018. "Unconventional monetary policy, bank lending, and security holdings: The yield-induced portfolio rebalancing channel," Discussion Papers 22/2018, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    6. Urbschat, Florian & Watzka, Sebastian, 2020. "Quantitative easing in the Euro Area – An event study approach," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 77(C), pages 14-36.
    7. Jin, Xisong & Nadal De Simone, Francisco, 2020. "Monetary policy and systemic risk-taking in the Euro area investment fund industry: A structural factor-augmented vector autoregression analysis," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 49(C).
    8. Mandler, Martin & Scharnagl, Michael, 2020. "Estimating the effects of the Eurosystem's asset purchase programme at the country level," Discussion Papers 29/2020, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    9. Bofinger, Peter & Schnabel, Isabel & Feld, Lars P. & Schmidt, Christoph M. & Wieland, Volker, 2017. "Für eine zukunftsorientierte Wirtschaftspolitik. Jahresgutachten 2017/18," Annual Economic Reports / Jahresgutachten, German Council of Economic Experts / Sachverständigenrat zur Begutachtung der gesamtwirtschaftlichen Entwicklung, volume 127, number 201718.
    10. Adam Elbourne, 2019. "SVARs, the central bank balance sheet and the effects of unconventional monetary policy in the euro area," CPB Discussion Paper 407, CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis.
    11. Jakub Jakl, 2019. "The SER Spread Under the ECB Quantitative Easing," European Financial and Accounting Journal, Prague University of Economics and Business, vol. 2019(2), pages 43-70.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Asset purchase programs; Balance sheet; Monetary policy; Central bank; Shock identification; VAR;

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies

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