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International spillovers from Euro area and US credit and demand shocks: A focus on emerging Europe

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  • Fadejeva, Ludmila
  • Feldkircher, Martin
  • Reininger, Thomas

Abstract

In this paper, we examine the international effects of contractions in loan supply, loan demand and aggregate demand in the euro area and the USA. All three shocks have been at the forefront in spreading stress during the period of the global financial crisis and in particular so to countries that are strongly integrated with the euro area. We find that these shocks decrease international output and total credit to a varying degree. Loan demand and aggregate demand shocks in the euro area trigger significant negative spillovers on output in most other regions. Evidence for global negative output effects of euro area loan supply shocks is fraught with considerable estimation uncertainty. When these three types of shocks emanate from the USA, we find significant negative spillovers on output also for loan supply shocks. In general, international effects on total credit are an order of magnitude larger than those on output, with again more evidence that is significant for US than euro area shocks. Last, and taking a regional stance, our results indicate that economies from emerging Europe are most vulnerable to all shocks considered. Through their strong economic integration with the euro area, these economies are likewise exposed to euro area and US shocks, and spillover effects are often larger than the domestic response in the country of shock-origin.

Suggested Citation

  • Fadejeva, Ludmila & Feldkircher, Martin & Reininger, Thomas, 2017. "International spillovers from Euro area and US credit and demand shocks: A focus on emerging Europe," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 70(C), pages 1-25.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:jimfin:v:70:y:2017:i:c:p:1-25
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jimonfin.2016.08.001
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    Cited by:

    1. Martin Feldkircher & Thomas Gruber & Florian Huber, 2017. "Spreading the word or reducing the term spread? Assessing spillovers from euro area monetary policy," Department of Economics Working Papers wuwp248, Vienna University of Economics and Business, Department of Economics.
    2. repec:eee:ecosys:v:42:y:2018:i:1:p:91-105 is not listed on IDEAS
    3. Michael Stemmer, 2017. "Revisiting Finance and Growth in Transition Economies - A Panel Causality Approach," Université Paris1 Panthéon-Sorbonne (Post-Print and Working Papers) halshs-01524462, HAL.
    4. Sona Benecka & Ludmila Fadejeva & Martin Feldkircher, 2018. "Spillovers from Euro Area Monetary Policy: A Focus on Emerging Europe," Working Papers 2018/04, Latvijas Banka.
    5. Jan Hajek & Roman Horvath, 2017. "International Spillovers of (Un)Conventional Monetary Policy: The Effect of the ECB and US Fed on Non-Euro EU Countries," Working Papers IES 2017/22, Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, Institute of Economic Studies, revised Sep 2017.
    6. repec:onb:oenbfi:y:2018:i:q3-18:b:13 is not listed on IDEAS
    7. Oleksandr Faryna & Heli Simola, 2018. "The Transmission of International Shocks to CIS Economies: A Global VAR Approach," Working Papers 04/2018, National Bank of Ukraine, Monetary Policy and Economic Analysis Department.
    8. Svatopluk Kapounek, 2017. "The Impact of Institutional Quality on Bank Lending Activity: Evidence from Bayesian Model Averaging," Czech Journal of Economics and Finance (Finance a uver), Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, vol. 67(5), pages 372-395, October.
    9. repec:eee:jrpoli:v:52:y:2017:i:c:p:308-319 is not listed on IDEAS
    10. Markus Eller & Martin Feldkircher & Florian Huber, 2017. "How would a fiscal shock in Germany affect other European countries? Evidence from a Bayesian GVAR model with sign restrictions," Focus on European Economic Integration, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank), issue 1, pages 54-77.
    11. repec:ers:ijebaa:v:iv:y:2016:i:2:p:70-96 is not listed on IDEAS
    12. Hussain Shahzad, Syed Jawad & Raza, Naveed & Shahbaz, Muhammad & Ali, Azwadi, 2017. "Dependence of stock markets with gold and bonds under bullish and bearish market states," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 52(C), pages 308-319.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Credit shock; Global vector autoregressions; Emerging Europe; Sign restrictions;

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • F44 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - International Business Cycles
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • O54 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economywide Country Studies - - - Latin America; Caribbean

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