IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/jae/japmet/v16y2001i3p341-358.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

European integration and monetary transmission mechanisms: the case of Italy

Author

Listed:
  • Katarina Juselius

    (Institute of Economics, University of Copenhagen, Studiestraede 6, DK-1455, Copenhagen K, Denmark)

Abstract

The focus in this paper is on the monetary transmission mechanism in Italy and how it has changed with the increased independence of the Italian Central Bank and the increasingly fixed exchange rates of the ERM. The sample period 1974-1994 is divided into two parts approximately corresponding to the different systems. Based on a VAR model for money, income, prices, and interest rates the cointegration properties of the data in nominal and real terms are analysed. Long-run price homogeneity is empirically rejected and the economic and econometric consequences for a real money analysis are described. Altogether we find little evidence that the use of M2 and the short interest rate as intermediate targets has effectively controlled price inflation in this period. Copyright © 2001 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Suggested Citation

  • Katarina Juselius, 2001. "European integration and monetary transmission mechanisms: the case of Italy," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 16(3), pages 341-358.
    • Handle: RePEc:jae:japmet:v:16:y:2001:i:3:p:341-358
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://qed.econ.queensu.ca:80/jae/2001-v16.3/
    File Function: Supporting data files and programs
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Soren Johansen & Katarina Juselius, 2001. "Controlling Inflation in a Cointegrated Vector Autoregressive Model with an Application to US Data," Discussion Papers 01-03, University of Copenhagen. Department of Economics.
    2. Katarina Juselius, 1999. "Models and relations in economics and econometrics," Journal of Economic Methodology, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 6(2), pages 259-290.
    3. Johansen, Søren, 1995. "A Stastistical Analysis of Cointegration for I(2) Variables," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 11(1), pages 25-59, February.
    4. Paruolo, Paolo, 1996. "On the determination of integration indices in I(2) systems," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 72(1-2), pages 313-356.
    5. Katarina Juselius, 1998. "Changing monetary transmission mechanisms within the EU," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 23(3), pages 455-481.
    6. Angelini, P. & Hendry, D.F. & Rinaldi, R., 1993. "An Econometric Analysis of Money Demand in Italy," Papers 219, Banca Italia - Servizio di Studi.
    7. Rahbek, Anders & Christian Kongsted, Hans & Jorgensen, Clara, 1999. "Trend stationarity in the I(2) cointegration model," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 90(2), pages 265-289, June.
    8. repec:cup:etheor:v:8:y:1992:i:2:p:188-202 is not listed on IDEAS
    9. Katarina Juselius & Juan Toro, 1999. "The Effect of Joining the EMS: Monetary Transmission Mechanisms in Spain," Discussion Papers 99-22, University of Copenhagen. Department of Economics.
    10. Johansen, Søren & Juselius, Katarina, 1992. "Testing structural hypotheses in a multivariate cointegration analysis of the PPP and the UIP for UK," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 53(1-3), pages 211-244.
    11. Johansen, Soren & Juselius, Katarina, 1994. "Identification of the long-run and the short-run structure an application to the ISLM model," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 63(1), pages 7-36, July.
    12. M. Sarcinelli, 1995. "Italian monetary policy in the '80s and '90s: the revision of the modus operandi," Banca Nazionale del Lavoro Quarterly Review, Banca Nazionale del Lavoro, vol. 48(195), pages 397-422.
    13. Johansen, Søren, 1992. "A Representation of Vector Autoregressive Processes Integrated of Order 2," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 8(2), pages 188-202, June.
    14. M. Sarcinelli, 1995. "Italian monetary policy in the '80s and '90s: the revision of the modus operandi," BNL Quarterly Review, Banca Nazionale del Lavoro, vol. 48(195), pages 397-422.
    15. Juselius, Katarina, 1992. "Domestic and foreign effects on prices in an open economy: The case of Denmark," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 14(4), pages 401-428, August.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Katarina Juselius, 2011. "On the Role of Theory and Evidence in Macroeconomics," Chapters, in: John B. Davis & D. Wade Hands (ed.), The Elgar Companion to Recent Economic Methodology, chapter 17, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    2. Katarina Juselius, 2021. "Searching for a Theory That Fits the Data: A Personal Research Odyssey," Econometrics, MDPI, vol. 9(1), pages 1-27, February.
    3. Fabrizio Coricelli & Bostjan Jazbec & Igor Masten, 2004. "Linfluence du régime de change sur linflation dans les pays adhérents," Économie et Prévision, Programme National Persée, vol. 163(2), pages 51-61.
    4. Kurita, Takamitsu, 2020. "Likelihood-based tests for parameter constancy in I(2) CVAR models with an application to fixed-term deposit data," Journal of Multivariate Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 178(C).
    5. Ansgar Belke & Marcel Wiedmann, 2018. "Dissecting long-run and short-run causalities between monetary policy and stock prices," International Economics and Economic Policy, Springer, vol. 15(4), pages 761-786, October.
    6. Dierk HERZER & Felicitas NOWAK‐LEHMANN D. & Boriss SILIVERSTOVS, 2006. "Export‐Led Growth In Chile: Assessing The Role Of Export Composition In Productivity Growth," The Developing Economies, Institute of Developing Economies, vol. 44(3), pages 306-328, September.
    7. Kongsted, Hans Christian, 2005. "Testing the nominal-to-real transformation," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 124(2), pages 205-225, February.
    8. Dierk Herzer & Holger Strulik & Sebastian Vollmer, 2012. "The long-run determinants of fertility: one century of demographic change 1900–1999," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, vol. 17(4), pages 357-385, December.
    9. Fabrizio Coricelli & Bo??tjan Jazbec & Igor Masten, 2004. "Exchange Rate Policy and Inflation in Acceding Countries: The Role of Pass-through," William Davidson Institute Working Papers Series 2004-674, William Davidson Institute at the University of Michigan.
    10. Giuliano Queiroz Ferreira & Leonardo Bornacki Mattos, 2022. "Regime-dependent price puzzle in the Brazilian economy: evidence from VAR and FAVAR approaches," SN Business & Economics, Springer, vol. 2(9), pages 1-28, September.
    11. Noriega, Antonio E., 2004. "Long-run monetary neutrality and the unit-root hypothesis: further international evidence," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 15(2), pages 179-197, August.
    12. Beyer, Andreas & Farmer, Roger E.A., 2007. "Natural rate doubts," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 797-825, March.
    13. repec:zbw:rwirep:0435 is not listed on IDEAS
    14. Ansgar Belke & Marcel Wiedmann, 2013. "Monetary Policy, Stock Prices and Central Banks - Cross-Country Comparisons of Cointegrated VAR Models," Ruhr Economic Papers 0435, Rheinisch-Westfälisches Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, Ruhr-Universität Bochum, Universität Dortmund, Universität Duisburg-Essen.
    15. Brüggemann, Ralf, 2002. "On the small sample properties of weak exogeneity tests in cointegrated VAR models," SFB 373 Discussion Papers 2002,2, Humboldt University of Berlin, Interdisciplinary Research Project 373: Quantification and Simulation of Economic Processes.
    16. J. Barkley Rosser Jr & Richard P.F. Holt & David Colander, 2010. "European Economics at a Crossroads," Books, Edward Elgar Publishing, number 13585.
    17. Barbara Dluhosch, 2011. "European Economics at a Crossroads, by J. Barkley Rosser, Jr., Richard P. F. Holt, and David Colander," Journal of Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 51(3), pages 629-631, August.
    18. Belke, Ansgar & Wiedmann, Marcel, 2013. "Monetary Policy, Stock Prices and Central Banks - Cross-Country Comparisons of Cointegrated VAR Models," Ruhr Economic Papers 435, RWI - Leibniz-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, Ruhr-University Bochum, TU Dortmund University, University of Duisburg-Essen.
    19. Fabrizio CORICELLI & Bostjan JAZBEC & Igor MASTEN, 2004. "Exchange Rate Pass-Through in Acceding Countries: The Role of Exchange Rate Regimes," Economics Working Papers ECO2004/16, European University Institute.
    20. Ansgar Belke & Marcel Wiedmann, 2013. "Money, Stock Prices and Central Banks – Cross-Country Comparisons of Cointegrated VAR Models," ROME Working Papers 201308, ROME Network.
    21. Hans Christian Kongsted, 2002. "Testing the Nominal-to-Real Transformation," Discussion Papers 02-06, University of Copenhagen. Department of Economics.
    22. Juselius, Katarina & Toro, Juan, 2005. "Monetary transmission mechanisms in Spain: The effect of monetization, financial deregulation, and the EMS," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 24(3), pages 509-531, April.
    23. Civcir, İrfan & Ertac Varoglu, Dizem, 2019. "International transmission of monetary and global commodity price shocks to Turkey," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 41(4), pages 647-665.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Juselius, Katarina & Toro, Juan, 2005. "Monetary transmission mechanisms in Spain: The effect of monetization, financial deregulation, and the EMS," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 24(3), pages 509-531, April.
    2. Panayiotis Diamantis & Dimitris Georgoutsos & George Kouretas, 2001. "The Monetary Approach in the Presence of I(2) Components: A Cointegration Analysis of the Official and Black Market for Foreign Currency in Latin America," Working Papers 0108, University of Crete, Department of Economics.
    3. Hui Liu & Gabriel Rodriguez, 2003. "Human Activities and Global Warming: A Cointegration Analysis," Working Papers 0307E, University of Ottawa, Department of Economics.
    4. Dimitris Georgoutsos & George Kouretas, 2001. "Common Stochastic Trends In International Stock Markets: Testing In An Integrated Framework," Working Papers 0104, University of Crete, Department of Economics.
    5. Katarina Juselius, 2021. "Searching for a Theory That Fits the Data: A Personal Research Odyssey," Econometrics, MDPI, vol. 9(1), pages 1-27, February.
    6. Diamandis, Panayiotis F. & Georgoutsos, Dimitris A. & Kouretas, Georgios P., 2000. "The monetary model in the presence of I(2) components: long-run relationships, short-run dynamics and forecasting of the Greek drachma," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 19(6), pages 917-941, December.
    7. Dimitris Georgoutsos & George Kouretas, 2000. "A Multivariate I(2) Cointegration Analysis Of German Hyperinflation," Working Papers 0001, University of Crete, Department of Economics, revised 00 Jul 2001.
    8. Diamandis, Panayiotis F., 2003. "Market efficiency, purchasing power parity, and the official and parallel markets for foreign currency in Latin America," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 12(1), pages 89-110.
    9. Kouretas, Georgios P. & Yannopoulos, Andreas, 2006. "Dynamic modelling of trade union behaviour: Evidence from the Greek manufacturing sector," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 23(2), pages 316-338, March.
    10. Kongsted, Hans Christian, 2005. "Testing the nominal-to-real transformation," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 124(2), pages 205-225, February.
    11. Lisbeth Funding la Cour, 1995. "A Component® based Analysis of the danish Long-run Money Demand Relation," Discussion Papers 95-18, University of Copenhagen. Department of Economics.
    12. Hans Christian Kongsted, 2002. "Testing the Nominal-to-Real Transformation," Discussion Papers 02-06, University of Copenhagen. Department of Economics.
    13. Fabrizio Coricelli & Bo??tjan Jazbec & Igor Masten, 2004. "Exchange Rate Policy and Inflation in Acceding Countries: The Role of Pass-through," William Davidson Institute Working Papers Series 2004-674, William Davidson Institute at the University of Michigan.
    14. repec:bla:germec:v:4:y:2003:i::p:307-339 is not listed on IDEAS
    15. Panayiotis Diamandis & Georgios Kouretas & Leonidas Zarangas, 2005. "Expectations and the black market premium for foreign currency in Greece," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 15(10), pages 667-677.
    16. Everaert, Gerdie, 2003. "Balanced growth and public capital: an empirical analysis with I(2) trends in capital stock data," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 20(4), pages 741-763, July.
    17. Eric Heyer & Hervé Le Bihan & Frédéric Lerais, 2000. "Relation de Phillips, boucle prix-salaire : une estimation par la méthode de Johansen," Économie et Prévision, Programme National Persée, vol. 146(5), pages 43-60.
    18. Omtzigt, Pieter & Paruolo, Paolo, 2005. "Impact factors," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 128(1), pages 31-68, September.
    19. William Barnett & Barry E. Jones & Milka Kirova & Travis D. Nesmith & Meenakshi Pasupathy1, 2004. "The Nonlinear Skeletons in the Closet," WORKING PAPERS SERIES IN THEORETICAL AND APPLIED ECONOMICS 200403, University of Kansas, Department of Economics, revised May 2004.
    20. Paruolo, Paolo & Rahbek, Anders, 1999. "Weak exogeneity in I(2) VAR systems," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 93(2), pages 281-308, December.
    21. Diamandis, Panayiotis F. & Drakos, Anastassios A., 2005. "Long-run dynamics of official and black-market exchange rates in Latin America," Global Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 15(3), pages 219-237, February.

    More about this item

    Lists

    This item is featured on the following reading lists, Wikipedia, or ReplicationWiki pages:
    1. European integration and monetary transmission mechanisms: the case of Italy (Journal of Applied Econometrics 2001) in ReplicationWiki

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:jae:japmet:v:16:y:2001:i:3:p:341-358. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Wiley-Blackwell Digital Licensing or Christopher F. Baum (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.interscience.wiley.com/jpages/0883-7252/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.