IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/pra/mprapa/50903.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Monetary Policy Transmission in India: A Peep Inside the Black Box

Author

Listed:
  • Khundrakpam, Jeevan Kumar
  • Jain, Rajeev

Abstract

Using SVAR models on quarterly data for 1996-97:1 to 2011-12:1, the paper examines the relative importance of various transmission channels of monetary policy to GDP growth and inflation in India. It finds that external exogenous factors prolong the impact of monetary policy transmission on GDP growth and inflation in India, while removing the problem of ‘price puzzle’. Among the various channels of transmission, interest rate channel, credit channel and asset prices channel are found to be important, while exchange rate channel is weak. A positive shock to policy rate leads to slowdown in credit growth with a lag of two quarters and subsequently impacts GDP growth and inflation negatively. The same monetary policy shock has a negative impact on asset prices from the third quarter onwards and, in turn, has a pronounced negative impact on GDP growth and inflation. Exchange rate channel is found to have an insignificant impact on GDP growth, but has non-negligible impact on inflation. Interest rate channel is found to account for about half of the total impact of monetary shocks on GDP growth and about one-third of the total impact on inflation, indicating that interest rate channel is the most important channel for monetary policy transmission in India.

Suggested Citation

  • Khundrakpam, Jeevan Kumar & Jain, Rajeev, 2012. "Monetary Policy Transmission in India: A Peep Inside the Black Box," MPRA Paper 50903, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:50903
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/50903/1/MPRA_paper_50903.pdf
    File Function: original version
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/51136/1/MPRA_paper_50903.pdf
    File Function: revised version
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Fiorella De Fiore, 1998. "The Transmission of Monetary Policy in Israel," IMF Working Papers 1998/114, International Monetary Fund.
    2. Boivin, Jean & Kiley, Michael T. & Mishkin, Frederic S., 2010. "How Has the Monetary Transmission Mechanism Evolved Over Time?," Handbook of Monetary Economics, in: Benjamin M. Friedman & Michael Woodford (ed.), Handbook of Monetary Economics, edition 1, volume 3, chapter 8, pages 369-422, Elsevier.
    3. Norman Loayza & Klaus Schmidt-Hebbel, 2002. "Monetary Policy Functions and Transmission Mechanisms: An Overview," Central Banking, Analysis, and Economic Policies Book Series, in: Norman Loayza & Klaus Schmidt-Hebbel & Norman Loayza (Series Editor) & Klaus Schmidt-Hebbel (Series (ed.),Monetary Policy: Rules and Transmission Mechanisms, edition 1, volume 4, chapter 1, pages 001-020, Central Bank of Chile.
    4. Christiano, Lawrence J. & Eichenbaum, Martin & Evans, Charles L., 1999. "Monetary policy shocks: What have we learned and to what end?," Handbook of Macroeconomics, in: J. B. Taylor & M. Woodford (ed.), Handbook of Macroeconomics, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 2, pages 65-148, Elsevier.
    5. Khundrakpam, Jeevan Kumar, 2011. "Credit Channel of Monetary Transmission in India - How Effective and Long is the Lag?," MPRA Paper 50899, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    6. Ben S. Bernanke & Mark Gertler, 1995. "Inside the Black Box: The Credit Channel of Monetary Policy Transmission," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 9(4), pages 27-48, Fall.
    7. Bean, Charles & Larsen, Jens D. J. & Nikolov, Kalin, 2002. "Financial frictions and the monetary transmission mechanism: theory, evidence and policy implications," Working Paper Series 113, European Central Bank.
    8. Cúrdia, Vasco & Woodford, Michael, 2011. "The central-bank balance sheet as an instrument of monetarypolicy," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 58(1), pages 54-79, January.
    9. Bhattacharya, Rudrani & Patnaik, Ila & Shah, Ajay, 2011. "Monetary policy transmission in an emerging market setting," Working Papers 11/78, National Institute of Public Finance and Policy.
    10. Mr. Santiago Acosta Ormaechea & Mr. David O Coble Fernandez, 2011. "The Monetary Transmission in Dollarized and Non-Dollarized Economies: The Cases of Chile, New Zealand, Peru and Uruguay," IMF Working Papers 2011/087, International Monetary Fund.
    11. Vasco Curdia & Michael Woodford, 2010. "Conventional and unconventional monetary policy," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, vol. 92(May), pages 229-264.
    12. Frederic S. Mishkin, 1996. "The Channels of Monetary Transmission: Lessons for Monetary Policy," NBER Working Papers 5464, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    13. Milton Friedman & Anna J. Schwartz, 1963. "A Monetary History of the United States, 1867–1960," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number frie63-1.
    14. Bernanke, Ben S & Blinder, Alan S, 1992. "The Federal Funds Rate and the Channels of Monetary Transmission," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 82(4), pages 901-921, September.
    15. Charles R. Bean & Matthias Paustian & Adrian Penalver & Tim Taylor, 2010. "Monetary policy after the fall," Proceedings - Economic Policy Symposium - Jackson Hole, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, pages 267-328.
    16. Bernanke, Ben S., 1986. "Alternative explanations of the money-income correlation," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 25(1), pages 49-99, January.
    17. Christiano, Lawrence & Motto, Roberto & Rostagno, Massimo, 2008. "Shocks, structures or monetary policies? The Euro Area and US after 2001," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 32(8), pages 2476-2506, August.
    18. Le Viet, H. & Pfau, W.D., 2009. "VAR Analysis of the Monetary Transmission Mechanism in Vietnam," Applied Econometrics and International Development, Euro-American Association of Economic Development, vol. 9(1).
    19. Frederic S. Mishkin, 1995. "Symposium on the Monetary Transmission Mechanism," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 9(4), pages 3-10, Fall.
    20. Allan H. Meltzer, 1995. "Monetary, Credit and (Other) Transmission Processes: A Monetarist Perspective," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 9(4), pages 49-72, Fall.
    21. Stephen G. Cecchetti & Marion Kohler & Christian Upper, 2009. "Financial crises and economic activity," Proceedings - Economic Policy Symposium - Jackson Hole, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, pages 89-135.
    22. Bhaumik, Sumon Kumar & Dang, Vinh & Kutan, Ali M., 2011. "Implications of bank ownership for the credit channel of monetary policy transmission: Evidence from India," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 35(9), pages 2418-2428, September.
    23. Aleem, Abdul, 2010. "Transmission mechanism of monetary policy in India," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 21(2), pages 186-197, April.
    24. Alain Kabundi & Nonhlanhla Ngwenya, 2011. "Assessing Monetary Policy In South Africa In A Data‐Rich Environment," South African Journal of Economics, Economic Society of South Africa, vol. 79(1), pages 91-107, March.
    25. Michael Joyce & Matthew Tong & Robert Woods, 2011. "The United Kingdom’s quantitative easing policy: design, operation and impact," Bank of England Quarterly Bulletin, Bank of England, vol. 51(3), pages 200-212.
    26. International Monetary Fund, 2003. "India: Selected Issues and Statistical Appendix," IMF Staff Country Reports 2003/261, International Monetary Fund.
    27. Franklin R. Edwards & Frederic S. Mishkin, 1995. "The decline of traditional banking: implications for financial stability and regulatory policy," Economic Policy Review, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, vol. 1(Jul), pages 27-45.
    28. M S Mohanty & Philip Turner, 2008. "Monetary policy transmission in emerging market economies: what is new?," BIS Papers chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Transmission mechanisms for monetary policy in emerging market economies, volume 35, pages 1-59, Bank for International Settlements.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Jamilov, Rustam, 2012. "Channels of Monetary Transmission in the CIS," MPRA Paper 39568, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. Rajendra Narayan Paramanik & Bandi Kamaiah, 2014. "A Structural Vector Autoregression Model for Monetary Policy Analysis in India," Margin: The Journal of Applied Economic Research, National Council of Applied Economic Research, vol. 8(4), pages 401-429, November.
    3. Mai, Nhat Chi, 2016. "Monetary policies and the macroeconomic performance of Vietnam," OSF Preprints akzy4, Center for Open Science.
    4. Shelja Bhatia, 2023. "Bank capital channel of monetary policy: panel data evidence for India," Indian Economic Review, Springer, vol. 58(2), pages 423-443, September.
    5. Sadhan Kumar Chattopadhyay & Arghya Kusum Mitra, 2023. "Monetary policy transmission in India under the base rate and MCLR regimes: a comparative study," Humanities and Social Sciences Communications, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 10(1), pages 1-14, December.
    6. Chundakkadan, Radeef & Sasidharan, Subash, 2020. "Central bank's liquidity provision and firms' financial constraints," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 89(C), pages 245-255.
    7. Li, Huan & Ni, Jinlan & Xu, Yueli & Zhan, Minghua, 2021. "Monetary policy and its transmission channels: Evidence from China," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 68(C).
    8. Fatih OKUR & Ömer AKKUŞ & Atakan DURMAZ, 2019. "The effectiveness of the monetary transmission mechanism channel in Turkey," Eastern Journal of European Studies, Centre for European Studies, Alexandru Ioan Cuza University, vol. 10, pages 161-180, June.
    9. Famoroti Jonathan Olusegun & Adeleke Omolade, 2022. "Impact of monetary policy transmission mechanism in West African countries," Studia Universitatis „Vasile Goldis” Arad – Economics Series, Sciendo, vol. 32(1), pages 20-42, March.
    10. Perera, Anil & Ralston, Deborah & Wickramanayake, J., 2014. "Impact of off-balance sheet banking on the bank lending channel of monetary transmission: Evidence from South Asia," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 29(C), pages 195-216.
    11. Lan Nguyen, Thi Mai & Papyrakis, Elissaios & van Bergeijk, Peter A.G., 2021. "Publication bias in the price effects of monetary policy: A meta-regression analysis for emerging and developing economies," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 71(C), pages 567-583.
    12. Khundrakpam, Jeevan Kumar, 2012. "Estimating Impacts of Monetary Policy on Aggregate Demand in India," MPRA Paper 50902, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    13. Adebayo Augustine Kutu & Harold Ngalawa, 2016. "Monetary Policy Shocks And Industrial Output In Brics Countries," SPOUDAI Journal of Economics and Business, SPOUDAI Journal of Economics and Business, University of Piraeus, vol. 66(3), pages 3-24, July-Sept.
    14. Irfan Ahmad Shah & Srikanta Kundu, 2024. "Asymmetric effects of monetary policy: evidence from India," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 66(1), pages 243-277, January.
    15. van Holle, Frederiek, 2017. "Essays in empirical finance and monetary policy," Other publications TiSEM 30d11a4b-7bc9-4c81-ad24-5, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
    16. Roy, Ripon & Bashar, Omar H.N.M. & Bhattacharya, Prasad Sankar, 2023. "The cross-industry effects of monetary policy: New evidence from Bangladesh," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 127(C).
    17. Catherine Bruno, 1997. "Transmission de la politique monétaire et régime de changes : une comparaison France - Allemagne - Etats-Unis," Revue de l'OFCE, Programme National Persée, vol. 61(1), pages 139-164.
    18. Marek Rusnak & Tomas Havranek & Roman Horvath, 2013. "How to Solve the Price Puzzle? A Meta‐Analysis," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 45(1), pages 37-70, February.
    19. Ranjan Kumar Mohanty & N R Bhanumurthy, 2020. "Asymmetric Monetary Policy Transmission in India:Does Financial Friction Matter?," BASE University Working Papers 03/2020, BASE University, Bengaluru, India.
    20. Ramey, V.A., 2016. "Macroeconomic Shocks and Their Propagation," Handbook of Macroeconomics, in: J. B. Taylor & Harald Uhlig (ed.), Handbook of Macroeconomics, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 0, pages 71-162, Elsevier.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;

    JEL classification:

    • E42 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Monetary Sytsems; Standards; Regimes; Government and the Monetary System
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:50903. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Joachim Winter (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/vfmunde.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.