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Non-Linearity in the Canadian and US Labour Markets: Univariate and Multivariate Evidence from A Battery of Tests

Author

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  • T. Panagiotidis
  • G. Pelloni

Abstract

The assumption of linearity is tested using five statistical tests for the US and the Canadian unemployment rates and the employment sectoral shares growth rates; construction, finance, manufacturing and trade. An AR(p) model was used to remove any linear structure from the series. Evidence of non-linearity is found for the sectoral shares with all five statistical tests in the US case but not in the aggregate level. The results for Canada are not so clear-cut. Evidence of unspecified non-linearity is found in the unemployment rate and in the sectoral shares. Overall important asymmetries are found in disaggregated labour market variables in the univariate setting. The linearity hypothesis was also examined in a multivariate framework. Evidence is provided that important asymmetries exist and a linear VAR cannot capture the dynamics of employment reallocation.

Suggested Citation

  • T. Panagiotidis & G. Pelloni, 2004. "Non-Linearity in the Canadian and US Labour Markets: Univariate and Multivariate Evidence from A Battery of Tests," Working Papers 506, Dipartimento Scienze Economiche, Universita' di Bologna.
    • Handle: RePEc:bol:bodewp:506
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    Cited by:

    1. is not listed on IDEAS
    2. Carlo Pizzinelli & Konstantinos Theodoridis & Francesco Zanetti, 2020. "State Dependence In Labor Market Fluctuations," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 61(3), pages 1027-1072, August.
    3. repec:rim:rimwps:27-08 is not listed on IDEAS
    4. Petre CARAIANI, 2015. "Testing For Nonlinearity In Unemployment Rates Via Delay Vector Variance," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(1), pages 81-92, March.
    5. Theodore Panagiotidis & Gianluigi Pelloni, 2013. "Employment Reallocation and Unemployment Revisited: A Quantile Regression Approach," Working Paper series 01_13, Rimini Centre for Economic Analysis, revised Feb 2014.
    6. Francesco Zanetti & Konstantinos Theodoridis, 2018. "State Dependence in Labor Market Fluctuations: Evidence, Theory, and Policy Implications," Economics Series Working Papers 856, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
    7. Theodore Panagiotidis & Gianluigi Pelloni, 2014. "Asymmetry and Lilien’s Sectoral Shifts Hypothesis: A Quantile Regression Approach," Review of Economic Analysis, Digital Initiatives at the University of Waterloo Library, vol. 6(1), pages 68-86, June.
    8. Çatık, A. Nazif & Martin, Christopher, 2012. "Macroeconomic transitions and the transmission mechanism: Evidence from Turkey," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 29(4), pages 1440-1449.
    9. Giovanni Gallipoli & Gianluigi Pelloni, 2008. "Aggregate Shocks vs Reallocation Shocks: an Appraisal of the Applied Literature," Working Paper series 27_08, Rimini Centre for Economic Analysis.
    10. Elena Olmedo, 2014. "Forecasting Spanish Unemployment Using Near Neighbour and Neural Net Techniques," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 43(2), pages 183-197, February.
    11. Dimitrios Bakas & Theodore Panagiotidis & Gianluigi Pelloni, 2017. "Regional And Sectoral Evidence Of The Macroeconomic Effects Of Labor Reallocation: A Panel Data Analysis," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 55(1), pages 501-526, January.
    12. Semei Coronado-Ram'irez & Pedro Celso-Arellano & Omar Rojas, 2014. "Adaptive Market Efficiency of Agricultural Commodity Futures Contracts," Papers 1412.8017, arXiv.org, revised Mar 2015.
    13. Abdurrahman Nazif ÇATIK, 2020. "A Time-varying VAR Investigation of the Relationship among Electricity, Fossil Fuel Prices and Exchange Rate in Turkey," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(3), pages 60-77, September.
    14. Olmedo, Elena, 2011. "Is there chaos in the Spanish labour market?," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 44(12), pages 1045-1053.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • C50 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - General
    • E24 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Employment; Unemployment; Wages; Intergenerational Income Distribution; Aggregate Human Capital; Aggregate Labor Productivity

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