IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/chsofr/v44y2011i12p1045-1053.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Is there chaos in the Spanish labour market?

Author

Listed:
  • Olmedo, Elena

Abstract

One could argue that there is a resurgence of the non-linear modelling in economics. Some instruments have been developed to measure the complexity or instability of the analysed systems. At the present work some of these developed techniques are applied to verify the non-linearity present in the time series of Spanish unemployment, as well as to quantify the degree of complexity of the system that has generated the series. Using these techniques we find evidence of chaos in Spanish unemployment time series.

Suggested Citation

  • Olmedo, Elena, 2011. "Is there chaos in the Spanish labour market?," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 44(12), pages 1045-1053.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:chsofr:v:44:y:2011:i:12:p:1045-1053
    DOI: 10.1016/j.chaos.2011.08.001
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0960077911001548
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only

    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.chaos.2011.08.001?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. William A. Barnett & A. Ronald Gallant & Melvin J. Hinich & Jochen A. Jungeilges & Daniel T. Kaplan, 2004. "Robustness of Nonlinearity and Chaos Tests to Measurement Error, Inference Method, and Sample Size," Contributions to Economic Analysis, in: Functional Structure and Approximation in Econometrics, pages 529-548, Emerald Group Publishing Limited.
    2. William A. Barnett & A. Ronald Gallant & Melvin J. Hinich & Jochen A. Jungeilges & Daniel T. Kaplan, 2004. "A Single-Blind Controlled Competition Among Tests for Nonlinearity and Chaos," Contributions to Economic Analysis, in: Functional Structure and Approximation in Econometrics, pages 581-615, Emerald Group Publishing Limited.
    3. Amos Golan & Jeffrey M. Perloff, 2004. "Superior Forecasts of the U.S. Unemployment Rate Using a Nonparametric Method," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 86(1), pages 433-438, February.
    4. Abhyankar, A & Copeland, L S & Wong, W, 1997. "Uncovering Nonlinear Structure in Real-Time Stock-Market Indexes: The S&P 500, the DAX, the Nikkei 225, and the FTSE-100," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 15(1), pages 1-14, January.
    5. Brock, W. A., 1986. "Distinguishing random and deterministic systems: Abridged version," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 40(1), pages 168-195, October.
    6. Neugart, Michael, 2004. "Complicated dynamics in a flow model of the labor market," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 53(2), pages 193-213, February.
    7. Hallegatte, Stéphane & Ghil, Michael & Dumas, Patrice & Hourcade, Jean-Charles, 2008. "Business cycles, bifurcations and chaos in a neo-classical model with investment dynamics," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 67(1), pages 57-77, July.
    8. Ossama Mikhail & Curtis Eberwein & Jagdish Handa, 2005. "On the evidence of non-linear structure in Canadian unemployment," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 12(2), pages 101-104.
    9. repec:gue:guelph:1991-4 is not listed on IDEAS
    10. Fanti, Luciano & Manfredi, Piero, 2007. "Neoclassical labour market dynamics, chaos and the real wage Phillips curve," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 62(3), pages 470-483, March.
    11. Tramontana, F. & Gardini, L. & Ferri, P., 2010. "The dynamics of the NAIRU model with two switching regimes," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 34(4), pages 681-695, April.
    12. Dufourt, Frédéric & Lloyd-Braga, Teresa & Modesto, Leonor, 2008. "Indeterminacy, Bifurcations, And Unemployment Fluctuations," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 12(S1), pages 75-89, April.
    13. Panagiotidis, Theodore & Pelloni, Gianluigi, 2007. "Nonlinearity In The Canadian And U.S. Labor Markets: Univariate And Multivariate Evidence From A Battery Of Tests," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 11(5), pages 613-637, November.
    14. Brock, W.A. & Dechert, W.D., 1988. "Theorems On Distinguishing Deterministic Form Random Systems," Working papers 366, Wisconsin Madison - Social Systems.
    15. Koop, Gary & Potter, Simon M, 1999. "Dynamic Asymmetries in U.S. Unemployment," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 17(3), pages 298-312, July.
    16. Franses, Philip Hans & Paap, Richard & Vroomen, Bjorn, 2004. "Forecasting unemployment using an autoregression with censored latent effects parameters," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 20(2), pages 255-271.
    17. D. A. Peel & A. E. H. Speight, 2000. "Threshold nonlinearities in unemployment rates: further evidence for the UK and G3 economies," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 32(6), pages 705-715.
    18. Engle, Robert F, 1982. "Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity with Estimates of the Variance of United Kingdom Inflation," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(4), pages 987-1007, July.
    19. Robert J. Gordon, 1986. "The American Business Cycle: Continuity and Change," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number gord86-1, March.
    20. Scheinkman, Jose A & LeBaron, Blake, 1989. "Nonlinear Dynamics and Stock Returns," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 62(3), pages 311-337, July.
    21. A. I. McLeod & W. K. Li, 1983. "Diagnostic Checking Arma Time Series Models Using Squared‐Residual Autocorrelations," Journal of Time Series Analysis, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 4(4), pages 269-273, July.
    22. Melvin J. Hinich, 1982. "Testing For Gaussianity And Linearity Of A Stationary Time Series," Journal of Time Series Analysis, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 3(3), pages 169-176, May.
    23. Mortensen, Dale T, 1999. "Equilibrium Unemployment Dynamics," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 40(4), pages 889-914, November.
    24. Richard A. Ashley & Douglas M. Patterson & Melvin J. Hinich, 1986. "A Diagnostic Test For Nonlinear Serial Dependence In Time Series Fitting Errors," Journal of Time Series Analysis, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 7(3), pages 165-178, May.
    25. Theodore Panagiotidis, 2002. "Testing the assumption of Linearity," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 3(29), pages 1-9.
    26. Neugart, Michael, 1999. "Is there chaos on the German labor market?," Publications of Darmstadt Technical University, Institute for Business Studies (BWL) 57333, Darmstadt Technical University, Department of Business Administration, Economics and Law, Institute for Business Studies (BWL).
    27. van Dijk, Dick & Franses, Philip Hans & Paap, Richard, 2002. "A nonlinear long memory model, with an application to US unemployment," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 110(2), pages 135-165, October.
    28. Frank, Murray Z. & Stengos, Thanasis, 1988. "Some evidence concerning macroeconomic chaos," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 22(3), pages 423-438.
    29. Soliman, A. S., 1996. "Transitions from stable equilibrium points to periodic cycles to chaos in a phillips curve system," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 18(1), pages 139-153.
    30. Guhathakurta, Kousik & Bhattacharya, Basabi & Chowdhury, A. Roy, 2010. "Using recurrence plot analysis to distinguish between endogenous and exogenous stock market crashes," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 389(9), pages 1874-1882.
    31. Brock, William A. & Sayers, Chera L., 1988. "Is the business cycle characterized by deterministic chaos?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 22(1), pages 71-90, July.
    32. Hansen Bruce E., 1997. "Inference in TAR Models," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 2(1), pages 1-16, April.
    33. David Chappell & Theodore Panagiotidis, 2005. "Using the correlation dimension to detect non-linear dynamics: Evidence from the Athens Stock Exchange," Econometrics 0504005, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    34. Barkoulas, John T., 2008. "Testing for deterministic monetary chaos: Metric and topological diagnostics," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 38(4), pages 1013-1024.
    35. Panagiotidis, Theodore & Pelloni, Gianluigi, 2003. "Testing for non-linearity in labour markets: the case of Germany and the UK," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 25(3), pages 275-286, April.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Abounoori, Abbas Ali & Mohammadali, Hanieh & Gandali Alikhani, Nadiya & Naderi, Esmaeil, 2012. "Comparative study of static and dynamic neural network models for nonlinear time series forecasting," MPRA Paper 46466, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. Abounoori, Abbas Ali & Naderi, Esmaeil & Gandali Alikhani, Nadiya & Amiri, Ashkan, 2013. "Financial Time Series Forecasting by Developing a Hybrid Intelligent System," MPRA Paper 45860, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    3. Miquel Clar-Lopez & Jordi López-Tamayo & Raúl Ramos, 2014. "Unemployment forecasts, time varying coefficient models and the Okun’s law in Spanish regions," Economics and Business Letters, Oviedo University Press, vol. 3(4), pages 247-262.
    4. Majid Delavari & Nadiya Gandali Alikhani & Esmaeil Naderi, 2013. "Do Dynamic Neural Networks Stand a Better Chance in Fractionally Integrated Process Forecasting?," International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, Econjournals, vol. 3(2), pages 466-475.
    5. Pappas, Nikolaos & Caputo, Andrea & Pellegrini, Massimiliano Matteo & Marzi, Giacomo & Michopoulou, Eleni, 2021. "The complexity of decision-making processes and IoT adoption in accommodation SMEs," Journal of Business Research, Elsevier, vol. 131(C), pages 573-583.
    6. Elena Olmedo, 2014. "Forecasting Spanish Unemployment Using Near Neighbour and Neural Net Techniques," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 43(2), pages 183-197, February.
    7. Lahmiri, Salim & Bekiros, Stelios, 2018. "Chaos, randomness and multi-fractality in Bitcoin market," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 106(C), pages 28-34.
    8. Olmedo, Elena & Mateos, Ruth, 2015. "Quantitative characterization of chaordic tourist destination," Tourism Management, Elsevier, vol. 47(C), pages 115-126.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Elena Olmedo, 2014. "Forecasting Spanish Unemployment Using Near Neighbour and Neural Net Techniques," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 43(2), pages 183-197, February.
    2. Marisa Faggini, 2011. "Chaotic Time Series Analysis in Economics: Balance and Perspectives," Working papers 25, Former Department of Economics and Public Finance "G. Prato", University of Torino.
    3. Barnett, William A. & Serletis, Apostolos & Serletis, Demitre, 2015. "Nonlinear And Complex Dynamics In Economics," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 19(8), pages 1749-1779, December.
    4. Panagiotidis, Theodore & Pelloni, Gianluigi, 2007. "Nonlinearity In The Canadian And U.S. Labor Markets: Univariate And Multivariate Evidence From A Battery Of Tests," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 11(5), pages 613-637, November.
    5. Barnett, William A. & Serletis, Apostolos, 2000. "Martingales, nonlinearity, and chaos," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 24(5-7), pages 703-724, June.
    6. repec:rim:rimwps:06-07 is not listed on IDEAS
    7. Kyrtsou, Catherine & Serletis, Apostolos, 2006. "Univariate tests for nonlinear structure," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 28(1), pages 154-168, March.
    8. LeBaron, Blake, 2003. "Non-Linear Time Series Models in Empirical Finance,: Philip Hans Franses and Dick van Dijk, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, 2000, 296 pp., Paperback, ISBN 0-521-77965-0, $33, [UK pound]22.95, [," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 19(4), pages 751-752.
    9. Franses,Philip Hans & Dijk,Dick van, 2000. "Non-Linear Time Series Models in Empirical Finance," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521779654, January.
    10. T Tang, 2009. "Testing for Non-linearity in the Balancing Item of Balance of Payments Accounts: The Case of 20 Industrial Countries," Economic Issues Journal Articles, Economic Issues, vol. 14(2), pages 107-124, September.
    11. Mototsugu Shintani & Oliver Linton, 2003. "Is There Chaos in the World Economy? A Nonparametric Test Using Consistent Standard Errors," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 44(1), pages 331-357, February.
    12. Theodore Panagiotidis, 2002. "Testing the assumption of Linearity," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 3(29), pages 1-9.
    13. Takala, Kari & Virén, Matti, 1995. "Testing nonlinear dynamics, long memory and chaotic behaviour with macroeconomic data," Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 9/1995, Bank of Finland.
    14. Adrangi, Bahram & Chatrath, Arjun & Dhanda, Kanwalroop Kathy & Raffiee, Kambiz, 2001. "Chaos in oil prices? Evidence from futures markets," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 23(4), pages 405-425, July.
    15. Ahn, Eun S. & Lee, Jin Man, 2012. "The Performance Of Nonlinearity Tests On Asymmetric Nonlinear Time Series," The Journal of Economic Asymmetries, Elsevier, vol. 9(2), pages 11-44.
    16. William Barnett & Barry E. Jones & Milka Kirova & Travis D. Nesmith & Meenakshi Pasupathy1, 2004. "The Nonlinear Skeletons in the Closet," WORKING PAPERS SERIES IN THEORETICAL AND APPLIED ECONOMICS 200403, University of Kansas, Department of Economics, revised May 2004.
    17. Kian-Ping Lim & M. Azali & M.S. Habibullah & Venus Khim-Sen Liew, 2003. "Are Non-Linear Dynamics a Universal Occurrence? Further Evidence From Asian Stock Markets," Finance 0308001, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    18. Ammermann, Peter A. & Patterson, Douglas M., 2003. "The cross-sectional and cross-temporal universality of nonlinear serial dependencies: Evidence from world stock indices and the Taiwan Stock Exchange," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 11(2), pages 175-195, April.
    19. Kian-Ping Lim & Venus Khim-Sen Liew, 2003. "Testing for Non-Linearity in ASEAN Financial Markets," Finance 0308002, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    20. Ignacio Olmeda & Joaquin Pérez, 1995. "Non-linear dynamics and chaos in the Spanish stock market," Investigaciones Economicas, Fundación SEPI, vol. 19(2), pages 217-248, May.
    21. Theodore Panagiotidis, 2010. "Market efficiency and the Euro: the case of the Athens stock exchange," Empirica, Springer;Austrian Institute for Economic Research;Austrian Economic Association, vol. 37(3), pages 237-251, July.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:chsofr:v:44:y:2011:i:12:p:1045-1053. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Thayer, Thomas R. (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.journals.elsevier.com/chaos-solitons-and-fractals .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.