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Business Cycles, Bifurcations and Chaos in a Neo-Classical Model with Investment Dynamics

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  • Stéphane Hallegatte

    (CIRED - Centre International de Recherche sur l'Environnement et le Développement - CIRAD - Centre de Coopération Internationale en Recherche Agronomique pour le Développement - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - AgroParisTech - ENPC - École des Ponts ParisTech - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, CNRM - Centre national de recherches météorologiques - Météo France - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)

  • Michael Ghil

    (ENS Paris - École normale supérieure - Paris, AOS - Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences [Los Angeles] - UCLA - University of California at Los Angeles [Los Angeles], IGPP - Institute of Geophysics and Planetary Physics [Los Angeles] - UCLA - University of California at Los Angeles [Los Angeles])

  • Patrice Dumas

    () (CIRED - Centre International de Recherche sur l'Environnement et le Développement - CIRAD - Centre de Coopération Internationale en Recherche Agronomique pour le Développement - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - AgroParisTech - ENPC - École des Ponts ParisTech - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)

  • Jean Charles Hourcade

    () (CIRED - Centre International de Recherche sur l'Environnement et le Développement - CIRAD - Centre de Coopération Internationale en Recherche Agronomique pour le Développement - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - AgroParisTech - ENPC - École des Ponts ParisTech - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)

Abstract

This paper is motivated by the rising interest in assessing the effect of disruptions in resources and environmental conditions on economic growth. Such an assessment requires, ultimately, the use of truly integrated models of the climate and economic systems. For these purposes, we have developed a Non-Equilibrium Dynamic Model (NEDyM) by introducing investment dynamics and nonequilibrium effects into a Solow growth model. NEDyM can reproduce various economic regimes, such as manager- or shareholder-driven economies, and permits one to examine the effects of disruptions on the economy, given either an assumption of steady-state growth or an assumption of business cycles with transient disequilibrium. We have applied NEDyM to an idealized economy that resembles in certain respects the 15-state European Union in 2001. The key parameter in NEDyM is investment flexibility. For certain values of this parameter, the model reproduces classical business cycles with realistic characteristics; in particular, NEDyM captures the cycles' asymmetry, with a longer growth phase and more rapid contraction. The cyclical behavior is due to the investment­ profit instability and is constrained by the increase in labor costs and the inertia of production capacity. For somewhat greater investment flexibility, the model exhibits chaotic behavior, because a new constraint intervenes, namely limited investment capacity. The preliminary results presented here show that complex behavior in the economic system may be due entirely, or at least largely, to deterministic, intrinsic factors, even if the economic long-term equilibrium is neo-classical in nature. In the chaotic regime, moreover, slight shocks ­ such as those due to natural or man-made catastrophes ­ may lead to significant changes in the economic system.

Suggested Citation

  • Stéphane Hallegatte & Michael Ghil & Patrice Dumas & Jean Charles Hourcade, 2008. "Business Cycles, Bifurcations and Chaos in a Neo-Classical Model with Investment Dynamics," Post-Print halshs-00007196, HAL.
  • Handle: RePEc:hal:journl:halshs-00007196
    DOI: 10.1209/0295-5075/81/60001
    Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://halshs.archives-ouvertes.fr/halshs-00007196
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Lisa Sella & Gianna Vivaldo & Andreas Groth & Michael Ghil, 2016. "Economic Cycles and Their Synchronization: A Comparison of Cyclic Modes in Three European Countries," Post-Print hal-01701122, HAL.
    2. Kemp-Benedict, Eric, 2012. "The national bioenergy investment model: Technical documentation," MPRA Paper 37835, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    3. Guivarch, Céline & Hallegatte, Stéphane & Crassous, Renaud, 2009. "The resilience of the Indian economy to rising oil prices as a validation test for a global energy-environment-economy CGE model," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 37(11), pages 4259-4266, November.
    4. Andreas Groth & Patrice Dumas & Michael Ghil & Stéphane Hallegatte, 2015. "Impacts of Natural Disasters on a Dynamic Economy," Post-Print hal-01678074, HAL.
    5. Gomes, Orlando, 2013. "Information stickiness on general equilibrium and endogenous cycles," Economics - The Open-Access, Open-Assessment E-Journal, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW), vol. 7, pages 1-43.
    6. Andreas Groth & Michael Ghil & Stéphane Hallegatte & Patrice Dumas, 2015. "The role of oscillatory modes in US business cycles," OECD Journal: Journal of Business Cycle Measurement and Analysis, OECD Publishing, Centre for International Research on Economic Tendency Surveys, vol. 2015(1), pages 63-81.
    7. Elena Olmedo, 2014. "Forecasting Spanish Unemployment Using Near Neighbour and Neural Net Techniques," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 43(2), pages 183-197, February.
    8. Hallegatte, Stéphane & Dumas, Patrice, 2009. "Can natural disasters have positive consequences? Investigating the role of embodied technical change," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 68(3), pages 777-786, January.
    9. Gomes, Orlando, 2009. "A two-dimensional non-equilibrium dynamic model," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 20(3), pages 221-238, September.
    10. Céline Guivarch & Stéphane Hallegatte & Renaud Crassous, 2008. "The Resilience of the Indian Economy to Rising Oil Prices as a Validation Test for a Global Energy-Environment-Economy CGE Model," Working Papers hal-00866431, HAL.
    11. repec:spr:jbuscr:v:12:y:2016:i:1:d:10.1007_s41549-016-0003-4 is not listed on IDEAS
    12. Orlando Gomes, 2010. "Endogenous Growth, Price Stability And Market Disequilibria," Metroeconomica, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 61(1), pages 3-34, February.
    13. Hallegatte, Stéphane & Ghil, Michael, 2008. "Natural disasters impacting a macroeconomic model with endogenous dynamics," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 68(1-2), pages 582-592, December.
    14. repec:eee:touman:v:41:y:2014:i:c:p:107-118 is not listed on IDEAS
    15. Stéphane Hallegatte & Michael Ghil, 2007. "Endogenous Business Cycles and the Economic Response to Exogenous Shocks," Working Papers 2007.20, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei.
    16. Jean-Charles Hourcade & Michael Grubb & Aurélie Méjean, 2015. "The 'Dark Matter' in the Search for Sustainable Growth: Energy, Innovation and the Financially Paradoxical Role of Climate Confidence," Post-Print hal-01646242, HAL.

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    Keywords

    Investment flexibility; Business cycles; Macroeconomic dynamics; Nonequilibrium modeling;

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