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Interactions d'échelles en économie : Application à l'évaluation intégré des dommages du changement climatique et des événements extrêmes

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  • Stéphane Hallegatte

    (CIRED - centre international de recherche sur l'environnement et le développement - Cirad - Centre de Coopération Internationale en Recherche Agronomique pour le Développement - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - AgroParisTech - ENPC - École des Ponts ParisTech - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, CNRM - Centre national de recherches météorologiques - INSU - CNRS - Institut national des sciences de l'Univers - OMP - Observatoire Midi-Pyrénées - IRD - Institut de Recherche pour le Développement - UT3 - Université Toulouse III - Paul Sabatier - UT - Université de Toulouse - INSU - CNRS - Institut national des sciences de l'Univers - CNES - Centre National d'Études Spatiales [Toulouse] - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - Météo-France - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - UT - Université de Toulouse - Météo-France)

Abstract

Climate change damage assessments are commonly based on long term growth models that neglect disequilibrium processes, assumed to be transient over short periods. This thesis highlights, from a set of modelling exercises, how important the short-term transients and the endogenous economic variability are in the estimation of extreme events and climate change damages. It suggests the impossibility to evaluate the damages independently of a precise representation of economic growth and dynamics: damages are as sensitive to the nature and amount of impacts as to the dynamics of the economy they occur in. The uncertainty on economic damages from climate change stems thus both from an incomplete scientific knowledge of impacts and from the uncertainty on the future organisation of economies.

Suggested Citation

  • Stéphane Hallegatte, 2005. "Interactions d'échelles en économie : Application à l'évaluation intégré des dommages du changement climatique et des événements extrêmes," Working Papers halshs-00008712, HAL.
    • Handle: RePEc:hal:wpaper:halshs-00008712
    Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://shs.hal.science/halshs-00008712
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