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On the Complexities of Complex Economic Dynamics

  • J. Barkley Rosser

Complex economic nonlinear dynamics endogenously do not converge to a point, a limit cycle, or an explosion. Their study developed out of earlier studies of cybernetic, catastrophic, and chaotic systems. Complexity analysis stresses interactions among dispersed agents without a global controller, tangled hierarchies, adaptive learning, evolution, and novelty, and out-of-equilibrium dynamics. Complexity methods include interacting particle systems, self-organized criticality, and evolutionary game theory, to simulate artificial stock markets and other phenomena. Theoretically, bounded rationality replaces rational expectations. Complexity theory influences empirical methods and restructures policy debates.

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File URL: http://www.aeaweb.org/articles.php?doi=10.1257/jep.13.4.169
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Article provided by American Economic Association in its journal Journal of Economic Perspectives.

Volume (Year): 13 (1999)
Issue (Month): 4 (Fall)
Pages: 169-192

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Handle: RePEc:aea:jecper:v:13:y:1999:i:4:p:169-192
Note: DOI: 10.1257/jep.13.4.169
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  1. Yoon-Jae Whang & Oliver Linton, 1997. "The Asymptotic Distribution of Nonparametric Estimates of the Lyapunov Exponent for Stochastic Time Series," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1130R, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
  2. William A. Brock & Steven N. Durlauf, 1995. "Discrete Choice with Social Interactions I: Theory," Working Papers 95-10-084, Santa Fe Institute.
  3. Rosser, J Barkley, Jr, 1990. "Chaos Theory and the New Keynesian Economics," The Manchester School of Economic & Social Studies, University of Manchester, vol. 58(3), pages 265-91, September.
  4. Richard H. Day, 1994. "Complex Economic Dynamics - Vol. 1: An Introduction to Dynamical Systems and Market Mechanisms," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262041413, June.
  5. J. Barkley Rosser Jr., 1998. "original: Coordination and bifurcation in growing spatial economies," The Annals of Regional Science, Springer, vol. 32(1), pages 133-143.
  6. Heiner, Ronald A., 1989. "The origin of predictable dynamic behavior," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 12(2), pages 233-257, October.
  7. Grandmont, Jean-Michel, 1994. "Expectations formation and stability of large socioeconomic systems," CEPREMAP Working Papers (Couverture Orange) 9424, CEPREMAP.
  8. George J. Mailath, . ""Do People Play Nash Equilibrium? Lessons From Evolutionary Game Theory''," CARESS Working Papres 98-01, University of Pennsylvania Center for Analytic Research and Economics in the Social Sciences.
  9. Baak, Saang Joon, 1999. "Tests for bounded rationality with a linear dynamic model distorted by heterogeneous expectations," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 23(9-10), pages 1517-1543, September.
  10. Kaas, Leo, 1998. "Stabilizing chaos in a dynamic macroeconomic model," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 33(3-4), pages 313-332, January.
  11. Kollman, Ken & Miller, John H & Page, Scott E, 1997. "Political Institutions and Sorting in a Tiebout Model," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 87(5), pages 977-92, December.
  12. Sorger, Gerhard, 1998. "Imperfect foresight and chaos: an example of a self-fulfilling mistake," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 33(3-4), pages 363-383, January.
  13. Joshua M. Epstein & Robert L. Axtell, 1996. "Growing Artificial Societies: Social Science from the Bottom Up," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262550253, June.
  14. Stodder James, 1995. "The Evolution of Complexity in Primitive Exchange: Theory," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 20(1), pages 1-31, February.
  15. George J. Mailath, 1998. "Corrigenda [Do People Play Nash Equilibrium? Lessons from Evolutionary Game Theory]," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 36(4), pages 1941-1941, December.
  16. John Conlisk, 1996. "Why Bounded Rationality?," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 34(2), pages 669-700, June.
  17. Michael Kopel, 1997. "Improving the performance of an economic system: Controlling chaos," Journal of Evolutionary Economics, Springer, vol. 7(3), pages 269-289.
  18. Benhabib, Jess & Day, Richard H., 1982. "A characterization of erratic dynamics in, the overlapping generations model," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 4(1), pages 37-55, November.
  19. Guesnerie, Roger, 1993. "Successes and failures in coordinating expectations," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 37(2-3), pages 243-268, April.
  20. Weidlich, Wolfgang & Braun, Martin, 1992. "The Master Equation Approach to Nonlinear Economics," Journal of Evolutionary Economics, Springer, vol. 2(3), pages 233-65, October.
  21. J. Barkley Rosser, Jr. & Marina Vcherashnaya Rosser, 1997. "Complex Dynamics and Systemic Change: How Things Can Go Very Wrong," Journal of Post Keynesian Economics, M.E. Sharpe, Inc., vol. 20(1), pages 103-122, October.
  22. Paul Davidson, 1996. "Reality and Economic Theory," Journal of Post Keynesian Economics, M.E. Sharpe, Inc., vol. 18(4), pages 479-508, July.
  23. Bask, Mikael, 1998. "Essays on Exchange Rates: Deterministic Chaos and Technical Analysis," Umeå Economic Studies 465, Umeå University, Department of Economics.
  24. James Stodder, 1997. "Complexity Aversion: Simplification in the Herrnstein and Allais Behaviors," Eastern Economic Journal, Eastern Economic Association, vol. 23(1), pages 1-15, Winter.
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