Natural disasters impacting a macroeconomic model with endogenous dynamics
We investigate the macroeconomic response to natural disasters by using an endogenous business cycle (EnBC) model in which cyclical behavior arises from the investment-profit instability. Our model exhibits a larger response to natural disasters during expansions than during recessions. This apparently paradoxical result can be traced to the disasters amplifying pre-existing disequilibria during expansions, while the existence of unused resources during recessions damps the exogenous shocks. It thus appears that high-growth periods are also highly vulnerable to supply-side shocks. In our EnBC model, the average production loss due to a set of disasters distributed at random in time is highly sensitive to the dynamical characteristics of the impacted economy. Larger economic flexibility allows for a more efficient and rapid response to supply-side shocks and reduces production losses. On the other hand, too high a flexibility can lead to vulnerability phases that cause average production losses to soar. These results raise questions about the assessment of climate change damages or natural disaster losses that are based purely on long-term growth models.
If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Hallegatte, Stéphane & Ghil, Michael & Dumas, Patrice & Hourcade, Jean-Charles, 2008.
"Business cycles, bifurcations and chaos in a neo-classical model with investment dynamics,"
Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization,
Elsevier, vol. 67(1), pages 57-77, July.
- Stéphane Hallegatte & Michael Ghil & Patrice Dumas & Jean-Charles Hourcade, 2008. "Business Cycles, Bifurcations and Chaos in a Neo-Classical Model with Investment Dynamics," Post-Print halshs-00007196, HAL.
- Hukukane Nikaido, 1996. "Prices, Cycles, and Growth," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262140594, June.
- Gale, David, 1973. "Pure exchange equilibrium of dynamic economic models," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 6(1), pages 12-36, February.
- Mark L. Gertler & R. Glenn Hubbard, 1988.
"Financial Factors in Business Fluctuations,"
NBER Working Papers
2758, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Mark Gertler & R. Glenn Hubbard, 1988. "Financial factors in business fluctuations," Proceedings - Economic Policy Symposium - Jackson Hole, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, pages 33-78.
- Robert G. King & Sergio T. Rebelo, 2000.
"Resuscitating Real Business Cycles,"
RCER Working Papers
467, University of Rochester - Center for Economic Research (RCER).
- Gali, J., 1996.
"Technology, Employment, and the Business Cycle: Do Technology Shocks Explain Aggregate Fluctuations?,"
96-28, C.V. Starr Center for Applied Economics, New York University.
- Jordi Gali, 1999. "Technology, Employment, and the Business Cycle: Do Technology Shocks Explain Aggregate Fluctuations?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 89(1), pages 249-271, March.
- Galí, Jordi, 1996. "Technology, Employment, and the Business Cycle: Do Technology Shocks Explain Aggregate Fluctuations?," CEPR Discussion Papers 1499, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Jordi Gali, 1996. "Technology, Employment, and the Business Cycle: Do Technology Shocks Explain Aggregate Fluctuations," NBER Working Papers 5721, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Ricardo, David, 1810. "The High Price of Bullion, a Proof of the Depreciation of Bank Notes," History of Economic Thought Books, McMaster University Archive for the History of Economic Thought, number ricardo1810.
- Charlotte Benson & Edward J. Clay, 2004. "Understanding the Economic and Financial Impacts of Natural Disasters," World Bank Publications, The World Bank, number 15025, May.
- repec:cup:cbooks:9780521643511 is not listed on IDEAS
- Gassebner, Martin & Keck, Alexander & Teh, Robert, 2006. "The impact of disasters on international trade," WTO Staff Working Papers ERSD-2006-04, World Trade Organization (WTO), Economic Research and Statistics Division.
- Jarsulic, Marc, 1993. "A nonlinear model of the pure growth cycle," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 22(2), pages 133-151, October.
- Hallegatte, Stephane & Hourcade, Jean-Charles & Dumas, Patrice, 2007. "Why economic dynamics matter in assessing climate change damages: Illustration on extreme events," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 62(2), pages 330-340, April.
- repec:cup:cbooks:9780521850254 is not listed on IDEAS
- Peter N. Ireland, 2001.
"Endogenous Money or Sticky Prices?,"
Boston College Working Papers in Economics
499, Boston College Department of Economics.
- Peter N. Ireland, 2002. "Endogenous Money or Sticky Prices?," NBER Working Papers 9390, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Peter Ireland, 2001. "Matlab code for "Endogenous Money or Sticky Prices?"," QM&RBC Codes 45, Quantitative Macroeconomics & Real Business Cycles.
- Richard Tol, 2002. "Estimates of the Damage Costs of Climate Change. Part 1: Benchmark Estimates," Environmental & Resource Economics, European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 21(1), pages 47-73, January.
- Xiaoqiang Hu & Fabio Schiantarelli, 1998. "Investment And Capital Market Imperfections: A Switching Regression Approach Using U.S. Firm Panel Data," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 80(3), pages 466-479, August.
- Martin Gassebner & Alexander Keck & Robert Teh, 2010.
"Shaken, Not Stirred: The Impact of Disasters on International Trade,"
Review of International Economics,
Wiley Blackwell, vol. 18(2), pages 351-368, 05.
- Martin Gassebner & Alexander Keck & Robert Teh, 2006. "Shaken, not stirred: the impact of disasters on international trade," KOF Working papers 06-139, KOF Swiss Economic Institute, ETH Zurich.
- Albala-Bertrand, J. M., 1993. "Political Economy of Large Natural Disasters: With Special Reference to Developing Countries," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780198287650, March.
- Tavares, Jose, 2004. "The open society assesses its enemies: shocks, disasters and terrorist attacks," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(5), pages 1039-1070, July.
- Kydland, Finn E & Prescott, Edward C, 1982.
"Time to Build and Aggregate Fluctuations,"
Econometric Society, vol. 50(6), pages 1345-70, November.
- Finn E. Kydland & Edward C. Prescott, 1982. "Web interface for "Time to Build and Aggregate Fluctuations"," QM&RBC Codes 4a, Quantitative Macroeconomics & Real Business Cycles.
- Finn E. Kydland & Edward C. Prescott, 1982. "Executable program for "Time to Build and Aggregate Fluctuations"," QM&RBC Codes 4, Quantitative Macroeconomics & Real Business Cycles.
- Miles S. Kimball, 1995.
"The Quantitative Analytics of the Basic Neomonetarist Model,"
NBER Working Papers
5046, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Miles S. Kimball & Michael Woodford, 1994. "The quantitative analysis of the basic neomonetarist model," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, pages 1241-1289.
- Kimball, Miles S, 1995. "The Quantitative Analytics of the Basic Neomonetarist Model," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 27(4), pages 1241-77, November.
- Day, Richard H, 1982. "Irregular Growth Cycles," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 72(3), pages 406-14, June.
- Grandmont Jean-michel, 1983.
"On endogenous competitive business cycles,"
CEPREMAP Working Papers (Couverture Orange)
- Lanzi, Diego, 2007. "Capabilities, human capital and education," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Economics (formerly The Journal of Socio-Economics), Elsevier, vol. 36(3), pages 424-435, June.
- Richard Tol, 2002. "Estimates of the Damage Costs of Climate Change, Part II. Dynamic Estimates," Environmental & Resource Economics, European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 21(2), pages 135-160, February.
- Jensen, Michael C, 1986. "Agency Costs of Free Cash Flow, Corporate Finance, and Takeovers," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 76(2), pages 323-29, May.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:ecolec:v:68:y:2008:i:1-2:p:582-592. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Zhang, Lei)
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.