Shaken, not stirred: the impact of disasters on international trade
This paper examines the impact of major disasters on trade flows using a gravity model(170 countries, 1962-2004). As a conservative estimate, an additional disaster reduces imports on average by 0,2% and exports by 0.1%. Despite the apparent persistence of bilateral trade volumes, the impact of catastrophes depends on the democracy level and size of the affected country. In autocracies, exports and imports are significantly reduced: had Togo been struck by a major disaster in 2000, it would have lost 6.8% of its imports and 8.2% of its exports. Democratic countries' exports suffer modest decreases, while imports are hardly affected
|Date of creation:||Jun 2006|
|Date of revision:|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: |
Phone: +41 44 632 42 39
Fax: +41 44 632 12 18
Web page: http://www.kof.ethz.ch
More information through EDIRC
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Fink, Carsten & Mattoo, Aaditya & Neagu, Ileana Cristina, 2005.
"Assessing the impact of communication costs on international trade,"
Journal of International Economics,
Elsevier, vol. 67(2), pages 428-445, December.
- Fink, Carsten & Mattoo, Aaditya & Neagu, Ileana Cristina, 2002. "Assessing the impact of communication costs on international trade," Policy Research Working Paper Series 2929, The World Bank.
- Andrew K. Rose, 2002.
"Do We Really KNow that the WTO Increases Trade?,"
182002, Hong Kong Institute for Monetary Research.
- Simon J. Evenett & Wolfgang Keller, 1998.
"On Theories Explaining the Success of the Gravity Equation,"
NBER Working Papers
6529, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Simon J. Evenett & Wolfgang Keller, 2002. "On Theories Explaining the Success of the Gravity Equation," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 110(2), pages 281-316, April.
- Simon J. Evenett & Wolfgang Keller, 1996. "On Theories Explaining the Success of the Gravity Equation," International Trade 9608001, EconWPA, revised 13 Jun 1997.
- Danila Serra, 2005.
"Empirical determinants of corruption: A sensitivity analysis,"
Economics Series Working Papers
GPRG-WPS-012, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
- Danila Serra, 2006. "Empirical determinants of corruption: A sensitivity analysis," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 126(1), pages 225-256, January.
- Rodrik, Dani, 1998.
"Where Did all the Growth Go? External Shocks, Social Conflict and Growth Collapses,"
CEPR Discussion Papers
1789, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Rodrik, Dani, 1999. " Where Did All the Growth Go? External Shocks, Social Conflict, and Growth Collapses," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, vol. 4(4), pages 385-412, December.
- Dani Rodrik, 1998. "Where Did All The Growth Go? External Shocks, Social Conflict, and Growth Collapses," NBER Working Papers 6350, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- repec:imf:imfwpa:04/224 is not listed on IDEAS
- Anderson, James E, 1979. "A Theoretical Foundation for the Gravity Equation," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 69(1), pages 106-16, March.
- Treisman, Daniel, 2000. "The causes of corruption: a cross-national study," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 76(3), pages 399-457, June.
- Axel Dreher & Lars-H.R. Siemers, 2003.
"The Intriguing Nexus Between Corruption and Capital Account Restrictions,"
Development and Comp Systems
0306004, EconWPA, revised 07 Apr 2004.
- Lars Siemers & Axel Dreher, 2005. "The Intriguing Nexus between Corruption and Capital Account Restrictions," RWI Discussion Papers 0035, Rheinisch-Westfälisches Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung.
- Axel Dreher & Lars Siemers, 2005. "The Intriguing Nexus between Corruption and Capital Account Restrictions," KOF Working papers 05-113, KOF Swiss Economic Institute, ETH Zurich.
- Auffret, Philippe, 2003. "High consumption volatility : the impact of natural disasters?," Policy Research Working Paper Series 2962, The World Bank.
- Jon Haveman & David Hummels, 2004. "Alternative hypotheses and the volume of trade: the gravity equation and the extent of specialization," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 37(1), pages 199-218, February.
- Mark Skidmore & Hideki Toya, 2002. "Do Natural Disasters Promote Long-Run Growth?," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 40(4), pages 664-687, October.
- Albala-Bertrand, J. M., 1993. "Natural disaster situations and growth: A macroeconomic model for sudden disaster impacts," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 21(9), pages 1417-1434, September.
- Michael Keen & Paul K. Freeman & Muthukumara Mani, 2003. "Dealing with Increased Risk of Natural Disasters: Challenges and Options," IMF Working Papers 03/197, International Monetary Fund.
- Baltagi, Badi H. & Egger, Peter & Pfaffermayr, Michael, 2003. "A generalized design for bilateral trade flow models," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 80(3), pages 391-397, September.
- Freund, Caroline L. & Weinhold, Diana, 2004. "The effect of the Internet on international trade," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 62(1), pages 171-189, January.
- Krugman, Paul, 1980. "Scale Economies, Product Differentiation, and the Pattern of Trade," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 70(5), pages 950-59, December.
- Matthew E. Kahn, 2005. "The Death Toll from Natural Disasters: The Role of Income, Geography, and Institutions," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 87(2), pages 271-284, May.
- Tavares, Jose, 2004. "The open society assesses its enemies: shocks, disasters and terrorist attacks," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(5), pages 1039-1070, July.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:kof:wpskof:06-139. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: ()
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.