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Business cycles, bifurcations and chaos in a neo-classical model with investment dynamics

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  • Hallegatte, Stéphane
  • Ghil, Michael
  • Dumas, Patrice
  • Hourcade, Jean-Charles

Abstract

This paper presents a non-equilibrium dynamic model (NEDyM) that introduces investment dynamics and non-equilibrium effects into a Solow growth model. NEDyM can reproduce several typical economic regimes and, for certain ranges of parameter values, exhibits endogenous business cycles with realistic characteristics. The cycles arise from the investment-profit instability and are constrained by the increase in labor costs and the inertia of production capacity. For other parameter ranges, the model exhibits chaotic behavior. These results show that complex variability in the economic system may be due to deterministic, intrinsic factors, even if the long-term equilibrium is neo-classical in nature.

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  • Hallegatte, Stéphane & Ghil, Michael & Dumas, Patrice & Hourcade, Jean-Charles, 2008. "Business cycles, bifurcations and chaos in a neo-classical model with investment dynamics," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 67(1), pages 57-77, July.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:jeborg:v:67:y:2008:i:1:p:57-77
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    Cited by:

    1. repec:eee:touman:v:41:y:2014:i:c:p:107-118 is not listed on IDEAS
    2. Stéphane Hallegatte & Michael Ghil, 2007. "Endogenous Business Cycles and the Economic Response to Exogenous Shocks," Working Papers 2007.20, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei.
    3. Gomes, Orlando, 2013. "Information stickiness on general equilibrium and endogenous cycles," Economics - The Open-Access, Open-Assessment E-Journal, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW), vol. 7, pages 1-43.
    4. Hallegatte, Stéphane & Dumas, Patrice, 2009. "Can natural disasters have positive consequences? Investigating the role of embodied technical change," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 68(3), pages 777-786, January.
    5. Lisa Sella & Gianna Vivaldo & Andreas Groth & Michael Ghil, 2016. "Economic Cycles and Their Synchronization: A Comparison of Cyclic Modes in Three European Countries," Post-Print hal-01701122, HAL.
    6. Andreas Groth & Michael Ghil & Stéphane Hallegatte & Patrice Dumas, 2015. "The role of oscillatory modes in US business cycles," OECD Journal: Journal of Business Cycle Measurement and Analysis, OECD Publishing, Centre for International Research on Economic Tendency Surveys, vol. 2015(1), pages 63-81.
    7. Guivarch, Céline & Hallegatte, Stéphane & Crassous, Renaud, 2009. "The resilience of the Indian economy to rising oil prices as a validation test for a global energy-environment-economy CGE model," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 37(11), pages 4259-4266, November.
    8. Hallegatte, Stéphane & Ghil, Michael, 2008. "Natural disasters impacting a macroeconomic model with endogenous dynamics," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 68(1-2), pages 582-592, December.
    9. Kemp-Benedict, Eric, 2012. "The national bioenergy investment model: Technical documentation," MPRA Paper 37835, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    10. Elena Olmedo, 2014. "Forecasting Spanish Unemployment Using Near Neighbour and Neural Net Techniques," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 43(2), pages 183-197, February.
    11. Jean-Charles Hourcade & Michael Grubb & Aurélie Méjean, 2015. "The 'Dark Matter' in the Search for Sustainable Growth: Energy, Innovation and the Financially Paradoxical Role of Climate Confidence," Post-Print hal-01646242, HAL.
    12. Gomes, Orlando, 2009. "A two-dimensional non-equilibrium dynamic model," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 20(3), pages 221-238, September.
    13. Orlando Gomes, 2010. "Endogenous Growth, Price Stability And Market Disequilibria," Metroeconomica, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 61(1), pages 3-34, February.
    14. Céline Guivarch & Stéphane Hallegatte & Renaud Crassous, 2008. "The Resilience of the Indian Economy to Rising Oil Prices as a Validation Test for a Global Energy-Environment-Economy CGE Model," Working Papers hal-00866431, HAL.
    15. Andreas Groth & Patrice Dumas & Michael Ghil & Stéphane Hallegatte, 2015. "Impacts of Natural Disasters on a Dynamic Economy," Post-Print hal-01678074, HAL.
    16. repec:spr:jbuscr:v:12:y:2016:i:1:d:10.1007_s41549-016-0003-4 is not listed on IDEAS

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