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Business cycles, bifurcations and chaos in a neo-classical model with investment dynamics

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  • Hallegatte, Stéphane
  • Ghil, Michael
  • Dumas, Patrice
  • Hourcade, Jean-Charles

Abstract

This paper presents a non-equilibrium dynamic model (NEDyM) that introduces investment dynamics and non-equilibrium effects into a Solow growth model. NEDyM can reproduce several typical economic regimes and, for certain ranges of parameter values, exhibits endogenous business cycles with realistic characteristics. The cycles arise from the investment-profit instability and are constrained by the increase in labor costs and the inertia of production capacity. For other parameter ranges, the model exhibits chaotic behavior. These results show that complex variability in the economic system may be due to deterministic, intrinsic factors, even if the long-term equilibrium is neo-classical in nature.

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  • Hallegatte, Stéphane & Ghil, Michael & Dumas, Patrice & Hourcade, Jean-Charles, 2008. "Business cycles, bifurcations and chaos in a neo-classical model with investment dynamics," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 67(1), pages 57-77, July.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:jeborg:v:67:y:2008:i:1:p:57-77
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    3. Stéphane Hallegatte & Michael Ghil, 2007. "Endogenous Business Cycles and the Economic Response to Exogenous Shocks," Working Papers 2007.20, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei.
    4. Xinghua Fan & Ying Zhang & Jiuli Yin, 2018. "Evolutionary Analysis of a Three-Dimensional Carbon Price Dynamic System," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(1), pages 1-15, December.
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    8. Gomes, Orlando, 2013. "Information stickiness on general equilibrium and endogenous cycles," Economics - The Open-Access, Open-Assessment E-Journal (2007-2020), Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel), vol. 7, pages 1-43.
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    11. Orlando Gomes, 2010. "Endogenous Growth, Price Stability And Market Disequilibria," Metroeconomica, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 61(1), pages 3-34, February.
    12. Culda, Loredana Camelia & Kaslik, Eva & Neamţu, Mihaela, 2022. "Stability and bifurcations in a general Cournot duopoly model with distributed time delays," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 162(C).
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    16. Gomes, Orlando, 2009. "A two-dimensional non-equilibrium dynamic model," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 20(3), pages 221-238, September.
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    24. Hallegatte,Stephane & Jooste,Charl & Mcisaac,Florent John, 2022. "Macroeconomic Consequences of Natural Disasters : A Modeling Proposal and Application to Floodsand Earthquakes in Turkey," Policy Research Working Paper Series 9943, The World Bank.
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