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Optimal control models and elicitation of attitudes towards climate damages

  • Jean Charles Hourcade

    ()

    (CIRED - Centre International de Recherche sur l'Environnement et le Développement - CNRS - CIRAD - Centre de coopération internationale en recherche agronomique pour le développement - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - Ecole Nationale du Génie Rural des Eaux et Forêts - École des Ponts ParisTech (ENPC))

  • Philippe Ambrosi

    ()

    (CIRED - Centre International de Recherche sur l'Environnement et le Développement - CNRS - CIRAD - Centre de coopération internationale en recherche agronomique pour le développement - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - Ecole Nationale du Génie Rural des Eaux et Forêts - École des Ponts ParisTech (ENPC))

  • Stéphane Hallegatte

    ()

    (CIRED - Centre International de Recherche sur l'Environnement et le Développement - CNRS - CIRAD - Centre de coopération internationale en recherche agronomique pour le développement - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - Ecole Nationale du Génie Rural des Eaux et Forêts - École des Ponts ParisTech (ENPC))

  • Franck Lecocq

    (World Bank - Development Economics Research Group - World Bank)

  • Patrice Dumas

    ()

    (CIRED - Centre International de Recherche sur l'Environnement et le Développement - CNRS - CIRAD - Centre de coopération internationale en recherche agronomique pour le développement - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - Ecole Nationale du Génie Rural des Eaux et Forêts - École des Ponts ParisTech (ENPC))

  • Minh Ha-Duong

    (CIRED - Centre International de Recherche sur l'Environnement et le Développement - CNRS - CIRAD - Centre de coopération internationale en recherche agronomique pour le développement - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - Ecole Nationale du Génie Rural des Eaux et Forêts - École des Ponts ParisTech (ENPC))

This paper examines the consequences of various attitudes towards climate damages through a family of stochastic optimal control models (RESPONSE): cost-efficiency for a given temperature ceiling; cost-benefit analysis with a "pure preference for current climate regime" and full cost-benefit analysis. The choice of a given proxy of climate change risks is actually more than a technical option. It is essentially motivated by the degree of distrust regarding the legitimacy of an assessment of climate damages and the possibility of providing in due time reliable and non controversial estimates. Our results demonstrate that a) for early decades abatement, the difference between various decision-making frameworks appears to matter less than the difference between stochastic and non stochastic approach given the cascade of uncertainty from emissions to damages; b) in a stochastic approach, the possibility of non-catastrophic singularities in the damage function is sufficient to significantly increase earlier optimal abatements; c) a window of opportunity for action exists up to 2040: abatements further delayed may induce significant regret in case of bad news about climate response or singularities in damages.

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File URL: https://halshs.archives-ouvertes.fr/halshs-00000966/document
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Paper provided by HAL in its series Post-Print with number halshs-00000966.

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Date of creation: 2003
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Publication status: Published in Environmental Modeling and Assessment, Kluwer, 2003, 8 (3), pp.133-147. <10.1023/A:1025586922143>
Handle: RePEc:hal:journl:halshs-00000966
DOI: 10.1023/A:1025586922143
Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://halshs.archives-ouvertes.fr/halshs-00000966
Contact details of provider: Web page: https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/

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