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Is There Chaos in the World Economy? A Nonparametric Test Using Consistent Standard Errors

Author

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  • Mototsugu Shintani

    () (Department of Economics, Vanderbilt Unversity)

  • Oliver Linton

    () (London School of Economics)

Abstract

A positive Lyapunov exponent is one practical definition of chaos. We develop a formal test for chaos in a noisy system based on the consistent standard errors of the nonparametric Lyapunov exponent estimators. When our procedures are applied to international real output series, the hypothesis of the positive Lyapunov exponent is significantly rejected in many cases. One possible interpretation of this result is that the traditional exogenous models are better able to explain business cycle fluctuations than is the chaotic endogenous approach. However, our results are subject to a number of caveats, in particular our results could have been influenced by small sample bias, high noise level, incorrect filtering, and long memory of the data.

Suggested Citation

  • Mototsugu Shintani & Oliver Linton, 2001. "Is There Chaos in the World Economy? A Nonparametric Test Using Consistent Standard Errors," Vanderbilt University Department of Economics Working Papers 0111, Vanderbilt University Department of Economics.
  • Handle: RePEc:van:wpaper:0111
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Shintani, Mototsugu & Linton, Oliver, 2004. "Nonparametric neural network estimation of Lyapunov exponents and a direct test for chaos," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 120(1), pages 1-33, May.
    2. Musselwhite, Gary & Herath, Gamini, 2007. "Chaos theory and assessment of forest stakeholder attitudes towards Australian forest policy," Forest Policy and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 9(8), pages 947-964, May.
    3. Mototsugu Shintani, 2006. "A nonparametric measure of convergence towards purchasing power parity," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 21(5), pages 589-604.
    4. Tapas MISHRA & Mamata PARHI & Claude DIEBOLT, 2014. "Evolutionary efficiency and distributive effects of inertia in cross-country life-satisfaction," Economies et Sociétés (Serie 'Histoire Economique Quantitative'), Association Française de Cliométrie (AFC), issue 49, pages 1335-1356, Août.
    5. Hommes, C.H. & Manzan, S., 2005. "Testing for Nonlinear Structure and Chaos in Economic Time Series: A Comment," CeNDEF Working Papers 05-14, Universiteit van Amsterdam, Center for Nonlinear Dynamics in Economics and Finance.
    6. Park, Joon Y. & Whang, Yoon-Jae, 2012. "Random walk or chaos: A formal test on the Lyapunov exponent," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 169(1), pages 61-74.
    7. Gomes, Orlando, 2006. "Heterogeneous Researchers in a Two-Sector Representative Consumer Economy," Revista Brasileira de Economia - RBE, FGV/EPGE - Escola Brasileira de Economia e Finanças, Getulio Vargas Foundation (Brazil), vol. 60(2), November.
    8. Kyrtsou, Catherine & Malliaris, Anastasios G. & Serletis, Apostolos, 2009. "Energy sector pricing: On the role of neglected nonlinearity," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 492-502, May.
    9. Cars Hommes & Sebastiano Manzan, 2006. "Testing for Nonlinear Structure and Chaos in Economic Time. A Comment," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 06-030/1, Tinbergen Institute.
    10. Kyrtsou, Catherine & Serletis, Apostolos, 2006. "Univariate tests for nonlinear structure," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 28(1), pages 154-168, March.
    11. Shintani, Mototsugu, 2008. "A dynamic factor approach to nonlinear stability analysis," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 32(9), pages 2788-2808, September.
    12. Serletis, Apostolos & Uritskaya, Olga Y., 2007. "Detecting signatures of stochastic self-organization in US money and velocity measures," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 385(1), pages 281-291.
    13. Simón Sosvilla-Rivero & Fernando Fernández-Rodriguez & Julián Andrada-Félix, 2005. "Testing chaotic dynamics via Lyapunov exponents," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 20(7), pages 911-930.
    14. Elena Olmedo & Ricardo Gimeno & Lorenzo Escot & Ruth Mateos, 2007. "Convergencia y Estabilidad de los Tipos de Cambio Europeos: Una Aplicación de Exponentes de Lyapunov," Latin American Journal of Economics-formerly Cuadernos de Economía, Instituto de Economía. Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile., vol. 44(129), pages 91-108.
    15. Serletis, Apostolos & Shintani, Mototsugu, 2006. "Chaotic monetary dynamics with confidence," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 28(1), pages 228-252, March.
    16. Pogany, Peter, 2010. "What’s wrong with the world? Rationality! A critique of economic anthropology in the spirit of Jean Gebser," MPRA Paper 26458, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    17. Tapas Mishra & Mamata Parhi & Raúl Fuentes, 2015. "How Interdependent are Cross-Country Happiness Dynamics?," Social Indicators Research: An International and Interdisciplinary Journal for Quality-of-Life Measurement, Springer, vol. 122(2), pages 491-518, June.
    18. Vitaliy Vandrovych, 2005. "Study of Nonlinearities in the Dynamics of Exchange Rates: Is There Any Evidence of Chaos?," Computing in Economics and Finance 2005 234, Society for Computational Economics.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Artificial neural networks; business cycles; local polynomial regression; nonlinear dynamics; nonlinear time series;

    JEL classification:

    • C14 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Semiparametric and Nonparametric Methods: General
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles

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