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Random Walks, Breaking Trend Functions, and the Chaotic Structure of the Velocity of Money

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  • Serletis, Apostolos

Abstract

This paper examines the times-series properties of U.S. velocity series, using E. Zivot and D. W. K. Andrews's (1992) variation of P. Perron's (1989) test. It also tests for deterministic noisy chaos using the Nychka, Ellner, Gallant, and McCaffrey (1992) nonparametric test for positivity of the maximum Lyapunov exponent. Comparisons are made among simple sum and Divisia aggregates using the Thornton and Yue (1992) series of Divisia monetary aggregates for an extended sample period (1960:1 to 1992:12). The conclusion is that the unit root model cannot be rejected. There is tentative evidence, however, that the Divisia L velocity series is chaotic.

Suggested Citation

  • Serletis, Apostolos, 1995. "Random Walks, Breaking Trend Functions, and the Chaotic Structure of the Velocity of Money," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 13(4), pages 453-458, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:bes:jnlbes:v:13:y:1995:i:4:p:453-58
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    Cited by:

    1. Shintani, Mototsugu & Linton, Oliver, 2004. "Nonparametric neural network estimation of Lyapunov exponents and a direct test for chaos," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 120(1), pages 1-33, May.
    2. Hartwell, Christopher A., 2019. "Short waves in Hungary, 1923 and 1946: Persistence, chaos, and (lack of) control," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 163(C), pages 532-550.
    3. John Barkoulas & Christopher Baum & Mustafa Caglayan, 1999. "Fractional monetary dynamics," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 31(11), pages 1393-1400.
    4. Barnett, William A. & Serletis, Apostolos & Serletis, Demitre, 2015. "Nonlinear And Complex Dynamics In Economics," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 19(8), pages 1749-1779, December.
    5. William A. Barnett & A. Ronald Gallant & Melvin J. Hinich & Jochen A. Jungeilges & Daniel T. Kaplan, 2004. "A Single-Blind Controlled Competition Among Tests for Nonlinearity and Chaos," Contributions to Economic Analysis, in: Functional Structure and Approximation in Econometrics, pages 581-615, Emerald Group Publishing Limited.
    6. Bunyamin Demir & Nesrin Alptekin & Yilmaz Kilicaslan & Mehmet Ergen & Nilgun Caglairmak Uslu, 2015. "Forecasting Agricultural Production: A Chaotic Dynamic Approach," World Journal of Applied Economics, WERI-World Economic Research Institute, vol. 1(1), pages 65-80, June.
    7. Barnett, William A. & Serletis, Apostolos, 2000. "Martingales, nonlinearity, and chaos," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 24(5-7), pages 703-724, June.
    8. Ioannis Andreadis & Athanasios D. Fragkou & Theodoros E. Karakasidis & Apostolos Serletis, 2023. "Nonlinear dynamics in Divisia monetary aggregates: an application of recurrence quantification analysis," Financial Innovation, Springer;Southwestern University of Finance and Economics, vol. 9(1), pages 1-17, December.
    9. Shintani, Mototsugu, 2008. "A dynamic factor approach to nonlinear stability analysis," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 32(9), pages 2788-2808, September.
    10. Gordon, David B. & Leeper, Eric M. & Zha, Tao, 1998. "Trends in velocity and policy expectations," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 49(1), pages 265-304, December.
    11. Serletis, Apostolos & He, Mingyu & Chowdhury, M.M. Islam, 2023. "Chaos in long-maturity real rates," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 225(C).
    12. E Andreou & A Pelloni & M Sensier, 2003. "The effect of nominal shock uncertainty on output growth," Centre for Growth and Business Cycle Research Discussion Paper Series 40, Economics, The University of Manchester.
    13. Serletis, Apostolos & Uritskaya, Olga Y., 2007. "Detecting signatures of stochastic self-organization in US money and velocity measures," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 385(1), pages 281-291.
    14. Mototsugu Shintani & Oliver Linton, 2003. "Is There Chaos in the World Economy? A Nonparametric Test Using Consistent Standard Errors," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 44(1), pages 331-357, February.
    15. Serletis, Apostolos & Shintani, Mototsugu, 2006. "Chaotic monetary dynamics with confidence," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 28(1), pages 228-252, March.
    16. Hartwell Christopher A., 2019. "Complexity, Uncertainty, and Monetary Policy: Can the ECB Avoid the Unconventional Becoming the ‘New Normal’?," The Economists' Voice, De Gruyter, vol. 16(1), pages 1-13, December.
    17. Dibeh, Ghassan, 2006. "Target zone dynamics where the fundamental follows a SDE with periodic forcing," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 363(2), pages 437-445.

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