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Forecasting Agricultural Production: A Chaotic Dynamic Approach

Author

Listed:
  • Bunyamin Demir

    (Anadolu University, Department of Mathematics)

  • Nesrin Alptekin

    (Anadolu University, Department of Management)

  • Yilmaz Kilicaslan

    (Anadolu University, Department of Economics)

  • Mehmet Ergen

    (Anadolu University, Department of Mathematics)

  • Nilgun Caglairmak Uslu

    (Anadolu University, Department of Economics)

Abstract

The aim of this study is to examine the existence of chaotic structure in agricultural production in Turkey by using Chaotic Dynamic Analysis (CDA) and to provide accurate forecasts of agricultural production. The data of wheat, barley and rice production in Turkey obtained from Turkish Statistical Institute (TURKSTAT) covers the period of 1991 to 2009. Our analysis shows that the supply of the selected agricultural products has a chaotic structure. Our dynamic system constructed predicted the supply of year 2010 with % 0.5 error for wheat, %5 error for barley, and %2.5 error ratio for rice. This study is the first attempt using CDA to forecast future agricultural product supply in Turkey. The findings of this study will help to produce effective policies to prevent supply disequilibrium, and excess price fluctuations.

Suggested Citation

  • Bunyamin Demir & Nesrin Alptekin & Yilmaz Kilicaslan & Mehmet Ergen & Nilgun Caglairmak Uslu, 2015. "Forecasting Agricultural Production: A Chaotic Dynamic Approach," World Journal of Applied Economics, WERI-World Economic Research Institute, vol. 1(1), pages 65-80, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:ana:journl:v:1:y:2015:i:1:p:65-80
    DOI: 10.22440/EconWorld.J.2015.1.1.BD.0007
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Kosar, Nataliia & Kuzo, Nataliia & Binda, Jacek & Hayvanovych, Nataliya & Pytulyak, Nataliya, 2022. "Modeling of the factors influencing the dairy market in Ukraine," Agricultural and Resource Economics: International Scientific E-Journal, Agricultural and Resource Economics: International Scientific E-Journal, vol. 8(3), September.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Chaotic dynamic analysis; lyapunov exponent; deterministic nonlinear prediction; agriculture; Turkey;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C60 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - General
    • C61 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Optimization Techniques; Programming Models; Dynamic Analysis
    • Q11 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Agriculture - - - Aggregate Supply and Demand Analysis; Prices

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