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Chaos in East European black market exchange rates

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  • SERLETIS, APOSTOLOS
  • GOGAS, PERIKLIS

Abstract

In this paper we test for deterministic chaos in seven East European black market exchange rates, using Koedjik and Kool's (1992) monthly data from January 1955 through May 1990.
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Suggested Citation

  • Serletis, Apostolos & Gogas, Periklis, 1997. "Chaos in East European black market exchange rates," Research in Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(4), pages 359-385, December.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:reecon:v:51:y:1997:i:4:p:359-385
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Day, Richard H. & Huang, Weihong, 1990. "Bulls, bears and market sheep," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 14(3), pages 299-329, December.
    2. De Long, J Bradford, et al, 1990. " Positive Feedback Investment Strategies and Destabilizing Rational Speculation," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 45(2), pages 379-395, June.
    3. David M. Cutler & James M. Poterba & Lawrence H. Summers, 1991. "Speculative Dynamics," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, pages 529-546.
    4. Cutler, David M & Poterba, James M & Summers, Lawrence H, 1990. "Speculative Dynamics and the Role of Feedback Traders," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 80(2), pages 63-68, May.
    5. Shiller, Robert J, 1981. "Do Stock Prices Move Too Much to be Justified by Subsequent Changes in Dividends?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 71(3), pages 421-436, June.
    6. Carl Chiarella, 1992. "The Dynamics of Speculative Behaviour," Working Paper Series 13, Finance Discipline Group, UTS Business School, University of Technology, Sydney.
    7. Poterba, James M. & Summers, Lawrence H., 1988. "Mean reversion in stock prices : Evidence and Implications," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 22(1), pages 27-59, October.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. William A. Barnett & Yijun He, 2000. "Unsolved Econometric Problems in Nonlinearity, Chaos, and Bifurcation," Macroeconomics 0004021, EconWPA.
    2. Musselwhite, Gary & Herath, Gamini, 2007. "Chaos theory and assessment of forest stakeholder attitudes towards Australian forest policy," Forest Policy and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 9(8), pages 947-964, May.
    3. Mishra, Ritesh Kumar & Sehgal, Sanjay & Bhanumurthy, N.R., 2011. "A search for long-range dependence and chaotic structure in Indian stock market," Review of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 20(2), pages 96-104, May.
    4. Barnett, William A. & Serletis, Apostolos & Serletis, Demitre, 2015. "Nonlinear And Complex Dynamics In Economics," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, pages 1749-1779.
    5. Marisa Faggini & Anna Parziale, 2016. "More than 20 years of chaos in economics," Mind & Society: Cognitive Studies in Economics and Social Sciences, Springer;Fondazione Rosselli, vol. 15(1), pages 53-69, June.
    6. William Barnett & Apostolos Serletis & Demitre Serletis, 2005. "Nonlinear and Complex Dynamics in Real Systems," GE, Growth, Math methods 0509002, EconWPA.
    7. Evzen Kocenda, 2001. "An Alternative To The Bds Test: Integration Across The Correlation Integral," Econometric Reviews, Taylor & Francis Journals, pages 337-351.
    8. McKenzie, Michael D., 2001. "Chaotic behavior in national stock market indices: New evidence from the close returns test," Global Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 12(1), pages 35-53.
    9. Barnett, William A. & Serletis, Apostolos, 2000. "Martingales, nonlinearity, and chaos," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, pages 703-724.
    10. Evzen Kocenda & Lubos Briatka, 2004. "Advancing the iid Test Based on Integration across the Correlation Integral: Ranges, Competition, and Power," CERGE-EI Working Papers wp235, The Center for Economic Research and Graduate Education - Economics Institute, Prague.
    11. Borusyak, K., 2011. "Nonlinear Dynamics of the Russian Stock Market in Problems of Risk Management," Journal of the New Economic Association, New Economic Association, issue 11, pages 85-105.
    12. Vasilios Plakandaras & Periklis Gogas & Rangan Gupta & Theophilos Papadimitriou, 2015. "US inflation dynamics on long-range data," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 47(36), pages 3874-3890, August.
    13. Marisa Faggini, 2011. "Chaotic Time Series Analysis in Economics: Balance and Perspectives," Working papers 25, Former Department of Economics and Public Finance "G. Prato", University of Torino.
    14. Evzen Kocenda & Lubos Briatka, 2005. "Optimal Range for the iid Test Based on Integration Across the Correlation Integral," Econometric Reviews, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 24(3), pages 265-296.
    15. Anagnostidis, Panagiotis & Emmanouilides, Christos J., 2015. "Nonlinearity in high-frequency stock returns: Evidence from the Athens Stock Exchange," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 421(C), pages 473-487.
    16. Vinodh Madhavan, 2014. "Investigating the nature of nonlinearity in Indian Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs)," Managerial Finance, Emerald Group Publishing, vol. 40(4), pages 395-415, March.
    17. Musselwhite, Gary & Herath, Gamini, 2004. "A chaos theory interpretation of community perceptions of Australian forest policy," Forest Policy and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 6(6), pages 595-604, October.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading

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    1. Теорија хаоса in Wikipedia Serbian ne '')
    2. Teori kekacauan in Wikipedia Malay ne '')
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