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A search for long-range dependence and chaotic structure in Indian stock market

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  • Mishra, Ritesh Kumar
  • Sehgal, Sanjay
  • Bhanumurthy, N.R.

Abstract

This study tests for the presence of nonlinear dependence and deterministic chaos in the rate of returns series for six Indian stock market indices. The overall result of our analysis suggests that the returns series do not follow a random walk process. Rather it appears that the daily increments in stock returns are serially correlated and the estimated Hurst exponents are indicative of marginal persistence in equity returns. Result from the test of independence on filtered residuals suggests that the existence of nonlinear dependence, at least to some extent, can be attributed to the presence of conditional heteroskedasticity. It appears, therefore, that low order GARCH-type models can adequately explain some, but not all, of the observed nonlinear dependence in the data. Further, we find very little evidence to support the proposition that returns are generated by a chaotic system. Only in two out of six cases the results are supportive of sensitive dependence on initial condition, which indicates chaos. Presence of chaos in market indices implies that profitable nonlinearity based trading rules may exist at least in the short-run. Finally, fairly contrary to the findings of previous studies, rejection of random walk hypothesis offers some possibility of returns predictability.

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  • Mishra, Ritesh Kumar & Sehgal, Sanjay & Bhanumurthy, N.R., 2011. "A search for long-range dependence and chaotic structure in Indian stock market," Review of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 20(2), pages 96-104, May.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:revfin:v:20:y:2011:i:2:p:96-104
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    Cited by:

    1. Narayan, Paresh Kumar & Ali Ahmed, Huson & Sharma, Susan Sunila & Prabheesh, K. P., 2014. "How profitable is the Indian stock market?," Financial Econometics Series fe_2014_14, Deakin University, Faculty of Business and Law, School of Accounting, Economics and Finance.
    2. Juan Benjamín Duarte Duarte & Juan Manuel Mascare?nas Pérez-Iñigo, 2014. "Comprobación de la eficiencia débil en los principales mercados financieros latinoamericanos," ESTUDIOS GERENCIALES, UNIVERSIDAD ICESI, November.
    3. Aviral Kumar Tiwari & Rangan Gupta & Stelios Bekiros, 2016. "Chaos in G7 Stock Markets using Over One Century of Data: A Note," Working Papers 201678, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
    4. Tsionas, Mike G. & Michaelides, Panayotis G., 2017. "Bayesian analysis of chaos: The joint return-volatility dynamical system," MPRA Paper 80632, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    5. Shalini, Velappan & Prasanna, Krishna, 2016. "Impact of the financial crisis on Indian commodity markets: Structural breaks and volatility dynamics," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 53(C), pages 40-57.
    6. Gu, Rongbao & Xiong, Wei & Li, Xinjie, 2015. "Does the singular value decomposition entropy have predictive power for stock market? — Evidence from the Shenzhen stock market," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 439(C), pages 103-113.
    7. Narayan, Paresh Kumar & Ahmed, Huson Ali & Sharma, Susan Sunila & K.P., Prabheesh, 2014. "How profitable is the Indian stock market?," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 30(C), pages 44-61.
    8. Krishnankutty, Raveesh & Tiwari, Aviral Kumar, 2011. "Are the Bombay stock Exchange Sectoral indices of Indian stock market cointegrated? Evidence using fractional cointegration test," MPRA Paper 48590, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 20 Dec 2011.
    9. Jian Zhou & Gao-Feng Gu & Zhi-Qiang Jiang & Xiong Xiong & Wei Chen & Wei Zhang & Wei-Xing Zhou, 2014. "Computational experiments successfully predict the emergence of autocorrelations in ultra-high-frequency stock returns," Papers 1404.1051, arXiv.org, revised Feb 2018.
    10. Xiao, Weilin & Zhang, Weiguo & Zhang, Xili & Chen, Xiaoyan, 2014. "The valuation of equity warrants under the fractional Vasicek process of the short-term interest rate," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 394(C), pages 320-337.
    11. Ayan Bhattacharya & Rudra Sensarma, 2013. "Non-Linearites In Emerging Financial Markets: Evidence From India," Working papers 140, Indian Institute of Management Kozhikode.
    12. Juan Benjamín Duarte Duarte & Juan Manuel Mascareñas Pérez-Iñigo, 2014. "¿Han sido los mercados bursátiles eficientes informacionalmente?," REVISTA APUNTES DEL CENES, UNIVERSIDAD PEDAGOGICA Y TECNOLOGICA DE COLOMBIA, June.
    13. repec:eee:phsmap:v:482:y:2017:i:c:p:95-107 is not listed on IDEAS
    14. repec:pal:assmgt:v:17:y:2016:i:5:d:10.1057_jam.2016.7 is not listed on IDEAS
    15. repec:kap:compec:v:50:y:2017:i:4:d:10.1007_s10614-016-9612-1 is not listed on IDEAS
    16. Anagnostidis, Panagiotis & Emmanouilides, Christos J., 2015. "Nonlinearity in high-frequency stock returns: Evidence from the Athens Stock Exchange," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 421(C), pages 473-487.
    17. Vinodh Madhavan, 2014. "Investigating the nature of nonlinearity in Indian Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs)," Managerial Finance, Emerald Group Publishing, vol. 40(4), pages 395-415, March.

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