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Unsolved Econometric Problems In Nonlinearity, Chaos, And Bifurcation


  • William Barnett

    (Department of Economics, The University of Kansas)

  • Yijun He

    (Department of Economics, Washington State University)


In an attempt to resolve the controversies that exist within the field of economics regarding nonlinearity, chaos, and bifurcation, we investigate the relevancy to these controversies of a controlled competition among nonparametric econometric tests for nonlinearity and chaos, and we also report on our results with experiments using parametric macroeconomic models to investigate the implications of bifurcation for macroeconomic policy. These experiments are part of an ongoing research project. What we find so far is that existing views on nonlinearity, chaos, and bifurcation in economics are based upon oversimplified views that currently neither can be confirmed nor contradicted with empirical results that are now available. Since these issues are deep and difficult, considerably more research is needed before any serious conclusions on the subject can be stated with confidence. This fact is particularly true regarding the relevancy of nonlinearity, chaos, and bifurcation for macroeconomic stabilization policy.

Suggested Citation

  • William Barnett & Yijun He, 2012. "Unsolved Econometric Problems In Nonlinearity, Chaos, And Bifurcation," WORKING PAPERS SERIES IN THEORETICAL AND APPLIED ECONOMICS 201231, University of Kansas, Department of Economics, revised Sep 2012.
  • Handle: RePEc:kan:wpaper:201231

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    References listed on IDEAS

    1. Serletis, Apostolos & Gogas, Periklis, 1997. "Chaos in East European black market exchange rates," Research in Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(4), pages 359-385, December.
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    JEL classification:

    • C14 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Semiparametric and Nonparametric Methods: General
    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • E37 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles

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