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Capital flows and current account dynamics in Turkey: A nonlinear time series analysis

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  • Cecen, Aydin
  • Xiao, Linlan

Abstract

The paper offers an analysis of current account dynamics and its sustainability in Turkey using quarterly data. The focus is on the nonlinear characterization of the long run intertemporal budget constraint and the stationarity tests. Several well-known tests are applied to identify nonlinearity in the current account time series. The analysis reveals that while the classical unit root tests based on linear specification give rise to conflicting results as to the nonstationarity of the current account deficit series, a threshold unit root test due to Caner and Hansen (2001) fails to reject the null of nonstationarity, implying that the intertemporal budget constraint would not be satisfied in the long run.

Suggested Citation

  • Cecen, Aydin & Xiao, Linlan, 2014. "Capital flows and current account dynamics in Turkey: A nonlinear time series analysis," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 39(C), pages 240-246.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecmode:v:39:y:2014:i:c:p:240-246
    DOI: 10.1016/j.econmod.2014.03.010
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Aşıcı, Ahmet Atıl, 2015. "On the sustainability of the economic growth path of Turkey: 1995–2009," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 52(C), pages 1731-1741.
    2. Chen, Shyh-Wei & Xie, Zixiong, 2015. "Testing for current account sustainability under assumptions of smooth break and nonlinearity," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 38(C), pages 142-156.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Current account; Europe; Turkey; Nonlinearity; Unit root;

    JEL classification:

    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • F32 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Current Account Adjustment; Short-term Capital Movements

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