IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/ags/afjecr/347739.html

Determinants of Current Account in Nigeria

Author

Listed:
  • Osisanwo, Bukonla G.
  • Oyelade, Aduralere O.
  • Ajayi, Felix Odunayo

Abstract

The study analyzed the determinants of the current account balance in Nigeria between 1981 and 2020, using three different models: oil current account balance, non-oil current account balance, and total current account balance. The dependent variables were the respective current account balances, while the explanatory variables included income, consumption, investment, budget deficit, exchange rate, financial deepening, broad money supply, unemployment rate, inflation rate, and age dependency ratio. The data was analyzed using the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) technique. The results indicated that budget deficit, exchange rate, and financial deepening were statistically significant in determining the oil current account position in the short run, while income, budget deficit, and exchange rate were statistically significant in the long run. For non-oil current account position, budget deficit, money supply, unemployment rate, inflation rate, and age dependency ratio were significant determinants in the short run, while budget deficit, money supply, unemployment rate, and inflation rate were significant in the long run. In the case of the total current account position, budget deficit, financial deepening, unemployment rate, and age dependency ratio were significant in the short run, while budget deficit, unemployment rate, and age dependency ratio were significant in the long run. The study suggests that policymakers in Nigeria should focus on reducing budget deficits, promoting financial deepening, and maintaining stable exchange rates to improve the current account balance, particularly in the short run.

Suggested Citation

  • Osisanwo, Bukonla G. & Oyelade, Aduralere O. & Ajayi, Felix Odunayo, 2024. "Determinants of Current Account in Nigeria," African Journal of Economic Review, African Journal of Economic Review, vol. 12(3), September.
    • Handle: RePEc:ags:afjecr:347739
    DOI: 10.22004/ag.econ.347739
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://ageconsearch.umn.edu/record/347739/files/Determinants%20of.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.22004/ag.econ.347739?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Cecen, Aydin & Xiao, Linlan, 2014. "Capital flows and current account dynamics in Turkey: A nonlinear time series analysis," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 39(C), pages 240-246.
    2. Narayan, Seema & Narayan, Paresh Kumar & Tobing, Lutzardo, 2021. "Has tourism influenced Indonesia’s current account?," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 69(C), pages 225-237.
    3. Sebil Olalekan Oshota & Ibrahim Adegoke Adeleke, 2015. "Determinants of the Current Account Balance in Nigeria, Ghana and Cote d’Ivoire," Acta Universitatis Danubius. OEconomica, Danubius University of Galati, issue 11(3), pages 127-145, June.
    4. Eberechukwu Uneze & Maxwell Ekor, 2012. "The determinants of current account balance in an oil-rich exporting country: the case of Nigeria," OPEC Energy Review, Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, vol. 36(4), pages 456-478, December.
    5. Beirne, John & Renzhi, Nuobu & Volz, Ulrich, 2021. "Persistent current account imbalances: Are they good or bad for regional and global growth?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 115(C).
    6. Idil UZ, 2010. "DETERMINANTS OF CURRENT ACCOUNT: The Relation between Internal and External Balances in Turkey," Applied Econometrics and International Development, Euro-American Association of Economic Development, vol. 10(2).
    7. Gossé, Jean-Baptiste & Serranito, Francisco, 2014. "Long-run determinants of current accounts in OECD countries: Lessons for intra-European imbalances," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 38(C), pages 451-462.
    8. Johnson, Harry G., 1972. "The Monetary Approach to Balance-of-Payments Theory," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 7(2), pages 1555-1572, March.
    9. G. K. Sanni & A. U. Musa & Z. Sani, 2019. "Current Account Balance and Economic Growth in Nigeria: An Empirical Investigation," Economic and Financial Review, Central Bank of Nigeria, vol. 57(2), June.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Bosede Victoria Kudaisi, 2022. "Trade, Financial Liberalisation And Current Account Balance In Nigeria," Oradea Journal of Business and Economics, University of Oradea, Faculty of Economics, vol. 7(special), pages 36-50, June.
    2. Chen, Shyh-Wei & Xie, Zixiong, 2015. "Testing for current account sustainability under assumptions of smooth break and nonlinearity," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 38(C), pages 142-156.
    3. Carlos A. Silva & Xavier Ordeñana & Paul Vera-Gilces & Alfredo Jiménez, 2021. "Global Imbalances: The Role of Institutions, Financial Development and FDI in the Context of Financial Crises," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(1), pages 1-20, January.
    4. Afonso, António & Huart, Florence & Tovar Jalles, João & Stanek, Piotr, 2022. "Twin deficits revisited: A role for fiscal institutions?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 121(C).
    5. Md. Hasanur Rahman, 2023. "Does the current account balance influence foreign direct investment in the Indian economy? Application of quantile regression model," SN Business & Economics, Springer, vol. 3(5), pages 1-18, May.
    6. Vasif Abioglu & Suleyman Koc & Ibrahim Bakirtas, 2021. "The sustainability of the Turkish current account: Smooth structural break and asymmetric adjustments," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 26(3), pages 3916-3929, July.
    7. Kubendran NARAYANASAMY, 2020. "Banking Sector Reforms and the Goals of Nationalised Commercial Banks in India," Theoretical and Applied Economics, Asociatia Generala a Economistilor din Romania / Editura Economica, vol. 0(2(623), S), pages 241-262, Summer.
    8. Esposito, Piero, 2017. "Trade creation, trade diversion and imbalances in the EMU," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 60(C), pages 462-472.
    9. M. G. Porter, 1974. "The Interdependence of Monetary Policy and Capital Flows in Australia," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 50(1), pages 1-20, March.
    10. Kubendran, N., 2020. "Testing the Effectiveness of Johnsonian Approach using India’s Balance of Payments," Romanian Economic Business Review, Romanian-American University, vol. 15(3), pages 61-80, September.
    11. Serranito, Francisco, 2015. "Dévaluation interne, politiques structurelles et réductions des déficits publics : les réponses apportées par la « troïka » sont-elles un remède aux déséquilibres externes des pays périphériques de la," Revue de la Régulation - Capitalisme, institutions, pouvoirs, Association Recherche et Régulation, vol. 18.
    12. Muhammad Shahid Hassan & Ayesha Wajid & Rukhsana Kalim, 2017. "Factors affecting trade deficit in Pakistan, India and Bangladesh," Economia Politica: Journal of Analytical and Institutional Economics, Springer;Fondazione Edison, vol. 34(2), pages 283-304, August.
    13. Lapan, Harvey & Enders, Walter, 1976. "Capital Mobility and Devaluation in a Monetary Approach to the Balance of Payments," ISU General Staff Papers 197601010800001033, Iowa State University, Department of Economics.
    14. Jhon Edwar Torres & Juan Pablo Cote, 2017. "Un nuevo cálculo de la tasa de cambio real de equilibrio para Colombia: Enfoque de Balance Macroeconómico," Borradores de Economia 1030, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
    15. Raza, Hamid & Zoega, Gylfi & Kinsella, Stephen, 2018. "Capital inflows, crisis and recovery in small open economies," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 27(C), pages 273-282.
    16. Thanh, Su Dinh & Canh, Nguyen Phuc & Doytch, Nadia, 2020. "Asymmetric effects of U.S. monetary policy on the U.S. bilateral trade deficit with China: A Markov switching ARDL model approach," The Journal of Economic Asymmetries, Elsevier, vol. 22(C).
    17. Georg Zachmann & Guntram B. Wolff & Marcel Fratzscher & Kerstin Bernoth & Gabriel Felbermayr & Niclas Poitiers & Alexander Sandkamp & Mia Hoffmann & Pauline Weil & Katrin Kamin & Malte Rieth & Jacquel, . "Instruments of a strategic foreign economic policy," Bruegel Book, Bruegel, number 45816, April.
    18. Florian Morvillier, 2018. "On the impact of the launch of the euro on EMU macroeconomic vulnerability," EconomiX Working Papers 2018-51, University of Paris Nanterre, EconomiX.
    19. Gaysset, Isabelle & Lagoarde-Segot, Thomas & Neaime, Simon, 2019. "Twin deficits and fiscal spillovers in the EMU's periphery. A Keynesian perspective," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 76(C), pages 101-116.
    20. Sung Y. Kwack, 1974. "Simulations with a model of the U.S. balance of payments: the impact of the Smithsonian exchange rate agreement," International Finance Discussion Papers 48, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).

    More about this item

    Keywords

    ;

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ags:afjecr:347739. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: AgEcon Search (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.ajol.info/index.php/ajer/index .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.