IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/ier/iecrev/v44y2003i1p331-357.html

Is There Chaos in the World Economy? A Nonparametric Test Using Consistent Standard Errors

Author

Listed:
  • Mototsugu Shintani

    (Vanderbilt University)

  • Oliver Linton

    (London School of Economics)

Abstract

A positive Lyapunov exponent is one practical definition of chaos. We develop a formal test for chaos in a noisy system based on the consistent standard errors of the nonparametric Lyapunov exponent estimators. For international real output series, the hypothesis of the positive Lyapunov exponent is significantly rejected in many cases. One possible interpretation of this result is that the traditional exogenous models are better able to explain business cycle fluctuations than is the chaotic endogenous approach. However, our results are subject to a number of caveats. Copyright 2003 By The Economics Department Of The University Of Pennsylvania And Osaka University Institute Of Social And Economic Research Association

Suggested Citation

  • Mototsugu Shintani & Oliver Linton, 2003. "Is There Chaos in the World Economy? A Nonparametric Test Using Consistent Standard Errors," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 44(1), pages 331-357, February.
    • Handle: RePEc:ier:iecrev:v:44:y:2003:i:1:p:331-357
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://openurl.ingenta.com/content?genre=article&issn=0020-6598&volume=44&spage=331
    Download Restriction: Free access to full text is restricted to Ingenta subscribers.
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version below or

    for a different version of it.

    Other versions of this item:

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • C14 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Semiparametric and Nonparametric Methods: General
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ier:iecrev:v:44:y:2003:i:1:p:331-357. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    We have no bibliographic references for this item. You can help adding them by using this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Wiley-Blackwell Digital Licensing or the person in charge (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/deupaus.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.