IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/fmg/fmgdps/dp383.html

Is There Chaos in the World Economy? A Nonparametric Test Using Consistent Standard Errors

Author

Listed:
  • Oliver Linton

  • Mototsugu Shintani

Abstract

A positive Lyapunov exponent is one pratical definition of chaos. We develop a formal test for chaos in a noisy system based on the sign of the Lyapunov exponent. The test utilizes nonparametric regression techniques including local quadratic regression and neural networks. When our procedures are applied to international real output series, the Lyapunov exponent estimates are negative and the positivity hypothesis of the expononent is significantly rejected in many cases. One possible interpretation of this result is that the traditional exogenous models are better able to explain business cycle fluctuations than is the chaotic endogenous approach. However, our results are subject to a number of caveats, in particular our results could have been influenced by small sample bias, high noise level, incorrect filtering, and long memory of the data.

Suggested Citation

  • Oliver Linton & Mototsugu Shintani, 2001. "Is There Chaos in the World Economy? A Nonparametric Test Using Consistent Standard Errors," FMG Discussion Papers dp383, Financial Markets Group.
    • Handle: RePEc:fmg:fmgdps:dp383
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.lse.ac.uk/fmg/workingPapers/discussionPapers/fmg_pdfs/dp383.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • C14 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Semiparametric and Nonparametric Methods: General
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:fmg:fmgdps:dp383. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    We have no bibliographic references for this item. You can help adding them by using this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: The FMG Administration (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.lse.ac.uk/fmg/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.