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Fractional Monetary Dynamics


  • John Barkoulas

    (Louisiana Tech University)

  • Christopher F. Baum

    () (Boston College)

  • Mustafa Caglayan

    (Koc University)


We test for fractional dynamics in U.S. monetary series, their various formulations and components, and velocity series. Using the spectral regression method, we find evidence of a fractional exponent in the differencing process of the monetary series (both simple-sum and Divisia indices), in their components (with the exception of demand deposits, savings deposits, overnight repurchase agreements, and term repurchase agreements), and the monetary base and money multipliers. No evidence of fractional behavior is found in the velocity series. Granger's (1980) aggregation hypothesis is evaluated and implications of the presence of fractional monetary dynamics are drawn.

Suggested Citation

  • John Barkoulas & Christopher F. Baum & Mustafa Caglayan, 1998. "Fractional Monetary Dynamics," Boston College Working Papers in Economics 321., Boston College Department of Economics.
  • Handle: RePEc:boc:bocoec:321

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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Giorgio Canarella & Stephen Miller, 2016. "Inflation persistence and structural breaks: the experience of inflation targeting countries and the US," Journal of Economic Studies, Emerald Group Publishing, vol. 43(6), pages 980-1005, November.
    2. Tapiero, Charles S. & Vallois, Pierre, 2016. "Fractional randomness," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 462(C), pages 1161-1177.
    3. Coleman, Simeon & Sirichand, Kavita, 2012. "Fractional integration and the volatility of UK interest rates," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 116(3), pages 381-384.
    4. Christopher F. Baum & John Barkoulas, 2006. "Long-memory forecasting of US monetary indices," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 25(4), pages 291-302.
    5. Coleman, Simeon, 2010. "Inflation persistence in the Franc zone: Evidence from disaggregated prices," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 32(1), pages 426-442, March.

    More about this item


    money supply; Divisia money; long memory; spectral regression;

    JEL classification:

    • E51 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Money Supply; Credit; Money Multipliers
    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • C52 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Evaluation, Validation, and Selection


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