IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/
MyIDEAS: Login to save this article or follow this journal

Long-memory forecasting of US monetary indices

  • Christopher F. Baum

    (Boston College, Chestnut Hill, Massachusetts, USA)

  • John Barkoulas

    (Georgia Southern University, Statesboro, Georgia, USA)

Several studies have tested for long-range dependence in macroeconomic and financial time series but very few have assessed the usefulness of long-memory models as forecast-generating mechanisms. This study tests for fractional differencing in the US monetary indices (simple sum and divisia) and compares the out-of-sample fractional forecasts to benchmark forecasts. The long-memory parameter is estimated using Robinson's Gaussian semi-parametric and multivariate log-periodogram methods. The evidence amply suggests that the monetary series possess a fractional order between one and two. Fractional out-of-sample forecasts are consistently more accurate (with the exception of the M3 series) than benchmark autoregressive forecasts but the forecasting gains are not generally statistically significant. In terms of forecast encompassing, the fractional model encompasses the autoregressive model for the divisia series but neither model encompasses the other for the simple sum series.  Copyright © 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.

File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1002/for.990
File Function: Link to full text; subscription required
Download Restriction: no

Article provided by John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. in its journal Journal of Forecasting.

Volume (Year): 25 (2006)
Issue (Month): 4 ()
Pages: 291-302

as
in new window

Handle: RePEc:jof:jforec:v:25:y:2006:i:4:p:291-302
Contact details of provider: Web page: http://www3.interscience.wiley.com/cgi-bin/jhome/2966

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

as in new window
  1. Diebold, Francis X & Mariano, Roberto S, 2002. "Comparing Predictive Accuracy," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 20(1), pages 134-44, January.
  2. John T. Barkoulas & Christopher F. Baum, 1997. "Fractional Differencing Modeling And Forecasting Of Eurocurrency Deposit Rates," Journal of Financial Research, Southern Finance Association;Southwestern Finance Association, vol. 20(3), pages 355-372, 09.
  3. John Barkoulas & Christopher F. Baum & Mustafa Caglayan, 1998. "Fractional Monetary Dynamics," Boston College Working Papers in Economics 321., Boston College Department of Economics.
  4. Cheung, Yin-Wong, 1993. "Long Memory in Foreign-Exchange Rates," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 11(1), pages 93-101, January.
  5. Diebold, Francis X & Rudebusch, Glenn D, 1991. "Is Consumption Too Smooth? Long Memory and the Deaton Paradox," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 73(1), pages 1-9, February.
  6. Clements,Michael & Hendry,David, 1998. "Forecasting Economic Time Series," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521632423.
  7. Baillie, Richard T & Chung, Ching-Fan & Tieslau, Margie A, 1996. "Analysing Inflation by the Fractionally Integrated ARFIMA-GARCH Model," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 11(1), pages 23-40, Jan.-Feb..
  8. Hassler, Uwe & Wolters, Jurgen, 1995. "Long Memory in Inflation Rates: International Evidence," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 13(1), pages 37-45, January.
  9. Franses, Philip Hans & Ooms, Marius, 1997. "A periodic long-memory model for quarterly UK inflation," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 13(1), pages 117-126, March.
  10. Diebold, Francis X. & Rudebusch, Glenn D., 1989. "Long memory and persistence in aggregate output," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 24(2), pages 189-209, September.
  11. Ray, Bonnie K., 1993. "Long-range forecasting of IBM product revenues using a seasonal fractionally differenced ARMA model," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 9(2), pages 255-269, August.
  12. Fildes, Robert & Stekler, Herman, 2002. "The state of macroeconomic forecasting," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 24(4), pages 435-468, December.
  13. Sowell, Fallaw, 1992. "Modeling long-run behavior with the fractional ARIMA model," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 29(2), pages 277-302, April.
  14. Christopher F. Baum & John Barkoulas & Mustafa Caglayan, 1996. "Persistence in International Inflation Rates," Boston College Working Papers in Economics 333., Boston College Department of Economics.
  15. Diebold, Francis X. & Lindner, Peter, 1996. "Fractional integration and interval prediction," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 50(3), pages 305-313, March.
Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:jof:jforec:v:25:y:2006:i:4:p:291-302. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Wiley-Blackwell Digital Licensing)

or (Christopher F. Baum)

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

This information is provided to you by IDEAS at the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis using RePEc data.