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Multi-Factor Gegenbauer Processes and European Inflation Rates

  • Guglielmo Maria Caporale
  • Luis A. Gil-Alana

In this paper we specify a multi-factor long-memory process that enables us to estimate the fractional differencing parameters at each frequency separately, and adopt this framework to model quarterly prices in three European countries (France, Italy and the UK). The empirical results suggest that inflation in France and Italy is nonstationary. However, while for the former country this applies both to the zero and the seasonal frequencies, in the case of Italy the nonstationarity comes exclusively from the long-run or zero frequency. In the UK, inflation seems to be stationary with a component of long memory at both the zero and the semi-annual frequencies, especially at the former.

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Paper provided by CESifo Group Munich in its series CESifo Working Paper Series with number 2648.

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Date of creation: 2009
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Handle: RePEc:ces:ceswps:_2648
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  1. Charles S. Bos & Philip Hans Franses & Marius Ooms, 1998. "Long Memory and Level Shifts: Re-Analyzing Inflation Rates," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 98-039/4, Tinbergen Institute.
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  3. Barsky, Robert B., 1987. "The Fisher hypothesis and the forecastability and persistence of inflation," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 19(1), pages 3-24, January.
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  5. Todd E. Clark & Michael McCracken, 1999. "Tests of Equal Forecast Accuracy and Encompassing for Nested Models," Computing in Economics and Finance 1999 1241, Society for Computational Economics.
  6. Gil-Alana, Luis A., 2002. "Seasonal long memory in the aggregate output," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 74(3), pages 333-337, February.
  7. Baillie, Richard T. & Bollerslev, Tim & Mikkelsen, Hans Ole, 1996. "Fractionally integrated generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 74(1), pages 3-30, September.
  8. Christopher F. Baum & John Barkoulas & Mustafa Caglayan, 1996. "Persistence in International Inflation Rates," Boston College Working Papers in Economics 333., Boston College Department of Economics.
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  10. Harvey, David & Leybourne, Stephen & Newbold, Paul, 1997. "Testing the equality of prediction mean squared errors," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 13(2), pages 281-291, June.
  11. David K. Backus, 1993. "Long-Memory Inflation Uncertainty: Evidence from the Term Structure of Interest Rates," Working Papers 93-04, New York University, Leonard N. Stern School of Business, Department of Economics.
  12. L A Gil-Alaña & Peter M Robinson, 2000. "Testing of Seasonal Fractional Integration in UK and Japanese Consumption and Income," STICERD - Econometrics Paper Series /2000/402, Suntory and Toyota International Centres for Economics and Related Disciplines, LSE.
  13. Chung, Ching-Fan & Baillie, Richard T, 1993. "Small Sample Bias in Conditional Sum-of-Squares Estimators of Fractionally Integrated ARMA Models," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 18(4), pages 791-806.
  14. Bollerslev, Tim & Wright, Jonathan H., 2000. "Semiparametric estimation of long-memory volatility dependencies: The role of high-frequency data," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 98(1), pages 81-106, September.
  15. Rose, Andrew Kenan, 1988. " Is the Real Interest Rate Stable?," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 43(5), pages 1095-1112, December.
  16. Bollerslev, Tim & Ole Mikkelsen, Hans, 1996. "Modeling and pricing long memory in stock market volatility," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 73(1), pages 151-184, July.
  17. Dalla, Violetta & Hidalgo, Javier, 2005. "A parametric bootstrap test for cycles," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 129(1-2), pages 219-261.
  18. John Barkoulas & Christopher F. Baum, 2003. "Long-Memory Forecasting of U.S. Monetary Indices," Boston College Working Papers in Economics 558, Boston College Department of Economics.
  19. L.A. Gil-Alanaa, 2007. "Testing The Existence of Multiple Cycles in Financial and Economic Time Series," Annals of Economics and Finance, Society for AEF, vol. 8(1), pages 1-20, May.
  20. Diebold, Francis X. & Inoue, Atsushi, 2001. "Long memory and regime switching," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 105(1), pages 131-159, November.
  21. Chung, Ching-Fan, 1996. "Estimating a generalized long memory process," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 73(1), pages 237-259, July.
  22. Marcus J. Chambers, . "Long Memory and Aggregation in Macroeconomic Time Series," Economics Discussion Papers 437, University of Essex, Department of Economics.
  23. Hyung, N. & Franses, Ph.H.B.F., 2001. "Structural breaks and long memory in US inflation rates: do they matter for forecasting?," Econometric Institute Research Papers EI 2001-13, Erasmus University Rotterdam, Erasmus School of Economics (ESE), Econometric Institute.
  24. L A Gil-Alana & Peter M. Robinson, 2000. "Testing of seasonal fractional integration in UK and Japanese consumption and income," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 2051, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
  25. L. A. Gil-Alaña & Peter M. Robinson, 2001. "Testing of seasonal fractional integration in UK and Japanese consumption and income," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 298, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
  26. Franses, Philip Hans & Ooms, Marius, 1997. "A periodic long-memory model for quarterly UK inflation," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 13(1), pages 117-126, March.
  27. Hassler, Uwe & Wolters, Jurgen, 1995. "Long Memory in Inflation Rates: International Evidence," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 13(1), pages 37-45, January.
  28. Violetta Dalla & Javier Hidalgo, 2005. "A Parametric Bootstrap Test for Cycles," STICERD - Econometrics Paper Series /2005/486, Suntory and Toyota International Centres for Economics and Related Disciplines, LSE.
  29. Ashley, Richard, 1998. "A new technique for postsample model selection and validation," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 22(5), pages 647-665, May.
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