Inflation forecasting in Angola: a fractional approach
This paper forecasts inflation in Angola with an ARFIMA (AutoRegressive Fractionally Integrated Moving Average) model. It is found that inflation in Angola is a highly persistent variable with an order of integration constrained between 0 and 1. Moreover, a structural break is found in August, 1996. Using the second sub-sample for forecasting purposes, the results reveal that inflation will remain low, assuming that prudent macroeconomic policies are maintained.
|Date of creation:||Feb 2012|
|Date of revision:|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: CEsA - Center of African, Asian and Latin American Studies, University of Lisbon, Rua Miguel Lupi 20, 1249-078 Lisboa, Portugal|
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