Inflation forecasting in Angola: a fractional approach
This paper forecasts inflation in Angola with an ARFIMA (AutoRegressive Fractionally Integrated Moving Average) model. It is found that inflation in Angola is a highly persistent variable with an order of integration constrained between 0 and 1. Moreover, a structural break is found in August, 1996. Using the second sub-sample for forecasting purposes, the results reveal that inflation will remain low, assuming that prudent macroeconomic policies are maintained.
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