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Inflation forecasting in Angola: a fractional approach

  • Carlos Barros
  • Luis Gil-Alana

This paper forecasts inflation in Angola with an ARFIMA (AutoRegressive Fractionally Integrated Moving Average) model. It is found that inflation in Angola is a highly persistent variable with an order of integration constrained between 0 and 1. Moreover, a structural break is found in August, 1996. Using the second sub-sample for forecasting purposes, the results reveal that inflation will remain low, assuming that prudent macroeconomic policies are maintained.

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File URL: http://pascal.iseg.utl.pt/~cesa/RePEc/cav/cavwpp/wp103.pdf
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Paper provided by CEsA - Center of African, Asian and Latin American Studies in its series CEsA Working Papers with number 103.

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Date of creation: Feb 2012
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Handle: RePEc:cav:cavwpp:wp103
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CEsA - Center of African, Asian and Latin American Studies, University of Lisbon, Rua Miguel Lupi 20, 1249-078 Lisboa, Portugal

Web page: http://pascal.iseg.utl.pt/~cesa/

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