Inflation forecasting in Angola: a fractional approach
This paper forecasts inflation in Angola with an ARFIMA (AutoRegressive Fractionally Integrated Moving Average) model. It is found that inflation in Angola is a highly persistent variable with an order of integration constrained between 0 and 1. Moreover, a structural break is found in August, 1996. Using the second sub-sample for forecasting purposes, the results reveal that inflation will remain low, assuming that prudent macroeconomic policies are maintained.
|Date of creation:||Feb 2012|
|Date of revision:|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: R. Miguel Lupi, 20, 1249-078 LISBOA|
Phone: ++ / 351 / 21 392 59 83
Fax: ++ / 351 / 21 397 62 71
Web page: http://pascal.iseg.utl.pt/~cesa/
More information through EDIRC
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:cav:cavwpp:wp103. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Ana Filipa Oliveira)
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.