Eta: A Persistent Phenomenon
Most searchers performing unit root tests on terrorism series reject the null hypothesis of unit roots (I(1)) and conclude that terrorism is stationary (I(0)). In this paper we analyze ETA activity in Spain during the last 30 years by means of examining its degree of dependence across time, using fractional integration or I(d) techniques. The results show that the activity of ETA is persistent to some extent, with an order of integration of about 0.40, implying stationarity, but also long memory behavior. We argue that this strong degree of dependence between the observations might be explained by the historical background underlying the political conflict in the area. In addition, the results indicate that the most significant factors contributing to a reduction of violence are those related to political pacts among the political parties in the Basque region. In order to put an end to ETA's violence, these accords should involve both nationalist and non-nationalist groups.
If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.
Volume (Year): 17 (2006)
Issue (Month): 2 ()
|Contact details of provider:|| Web page: http://www.tandfonline.com/GDPE20|
|Order Information:||Web: http://www.tandfonline.com/pricing/journal/GDPE20|
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Cheung, Yin-Wong & Lai, Kon S., 1995. "A search for long memory in international stock market returns," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 14(4), pages 597-615, August.
- Peter C.B. Phillips & Pierre Perron, 1986.
"Testing for a Unit Root in Time Series Regression,"
Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers
795R, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University, revised Sep 1987.
- Phillips, P.C.B., 1986. "Testing for a Unit Root in Time Series Regression," Cahiers de recherche 8633, Universite de Montreal, Departement de sciences economiques.
- Tom Doan, . "PPUNIT: RATS procedure to perform Phillips-Perron Unit Root test," Statistical Software Components RTS00160, Boston College Department of Economics.
- Baillie, Richard T & Chung, Ching-Fan & Tieslau, Margie A, 1996. "Analysing Inflation by the Fractionally Integrated ARFIMA-GARCH Model," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 11(1), pages 23-40, Jan.-Feb..
- Lobato, I.N. & Savin, N.E., 1996.
"Real and Spurious Long Memory Properties of Stock Market Data,"
96-07, University of Iowa, Department of Economics.
- Lobato, Ignacio N & Savin, N E, 1998. "Real and Spurious Long-Memory Properties of Stock-Market Data," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 16(3), pages 261-68, July.
- I.N. Lobato & N.E. Savin, 1996. "Real and Spurious Long Memory Properties of Stock Market Data," Econometrics 9605004, EconWPA, revised 26 Sep 1996.
- Baillie, Richard T., 1996. "Long memory processes and fractional integration in econometrics," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 73(1), pages 5-59, July.
- Drakos, Konstantinos & Kutan, Ali M., 2001. "Regional effects of terrorism on tourism: Evidence from three Mediterranean countries," ZEI Working Papers B 26-2001, University of Bonn, ZEI - Center for European Integration Studies.
- Hualde, J. & Robinson, P.M., 2007.
"Root-n-consistent estimation of weak fractional cointegration,"
Journal of Econometrics,
Elsevier, vol. 140(2), pages 450-484, October.
- Javier Hualde & A Robinson, 2006. "Root-N-Consistent Estimation Of Weakfractional Cointegration," STICERD - Econometrics Paper Series /06/499, Suntory and Toyota International Centres for Economics and Related Disciplines, LSE.
- Smith, Anthony A, Jr & Sowell, Fallaw & Zin, Stanley E, 1997.
"Fractional Integration with Drift: Estimation in Small Samples,"
Springer, vol. 22(1), pages 103-16.
- Tony Smith & Fallaw Sowell & Stanley Zin, . "Fractional integration with Drift: Estimation in Small Samples," GSIA Working Papers 22, Carnegie Mellon University, Tepper School of Business.
- Hassler, Uwe & Wolters, Jurgen, 1994. "On the power of unit root tests against fractional alternatives," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 45(1), pages 1-5, May.
- Diebold, Francis X. & Rudebusch, Glenn D., 1991.
"On the power of Dickey-Fuller tests against fractional alternatives,"
Elsevier, vol. 35(2), pages 155-160, February.
- Francis X. Diebold & Glenn D. Rudebusch, 1990. "On the power of Dickey-Fuller tests against fractional alternatives," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 119, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
- Carlos Pestana Barros, 2003. "An intervention analysis of terrorism: The spanish eta case," Defence and Peace Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 14(6), pages 401-412.
- Gil-Alana, L. A. & Robinson, P. M., 1997. "Testing of unit root and other nonstationary hypotheses in macroeconomic time series," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 80(2), pages 241-268, October.
- Granger, C. W. J., 1981. "Some properties of time series data and their use in econometric model specification," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 16(1), pages 121-130, May.
- Carlos Barros & Isabel Proença, 2005. "Mixed Logit Estimation Of Radical Islamic Terrorism In Europe And North America: A Comparative Study," Microeconomics 0508005, EconWPA.
- Enders, Walter & Sandler, Todd & Parise, Gerald F, 1992. "An Econometric Analysis of the Impact of Terrorism on Tourism," Kyklos, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 45(4), pages 531-54.
- Hassler, Uwe & Wolters, Jurgen, 1995. "Long Memory in Inflation Rates: International Evidence," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 13(1), pages 37-45, January.
- William R. Parke, 1999. "What Is Fractional Integration?," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 81(4), pages 632-638, November.
- Sowell, Fallaw, 1992. "Maximum likelihood estimation of stationary univariate fractionally integrated time series models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 53(1-3), pages 165-188.
- Francis X. Diebold & Atsushi Inoue, 2000.
"Long Memory and Regime Switching,"
NBER Technical Working Papers
0264, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Alberto Abadie & Javier Gardeazabal, 2001.
"The Economic Costs of Conflict: A Case-Control Study for the Basque Country,"
NBER Working Papers
8478, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Abadie, Alberto & Gardeazabal, Javier, 2001. "The Economic Costs of Conflict: A Case-Control Study for the Basque Country," Working Paper Series rwp01-048, Harvard University, John F. Kennedy School of Government.
- Granger, C. W. J., 1980. "Long memory relationships and the aggregation of dynamic models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 14(2), pages 227-238, October.
- Barros, Carlos Pestana & Faria, Joao Ricardo & Gil-Alana, Luis A., 2008. "Terrorism against American citizens in Africa: Related to poverty," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 30(1), pages 55-69.
- Granger, Clive W. J. & Ding, Zhuanxin, 1996. "Varieties of long memory models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 73(1), pages 61-77, July.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:taf:defpea:v:17:y:2006:i:2:p:95-116. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Michael McNulty)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.