IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/una/unccee/wp0306.html

Technology Shocks and Hours Worked: A Fractional Integration Perspective

Author

Listed:
  • Luis Alberiko Gil-Alana

  • Antonio Moreno

Abstract

Previous research has found that the response of hours worked to a technology shock crucially depends on whether the variable hours is assumed to be an I(0) or an I(1) variable ex-ante. In this paper we employ a multivariate fractionally integrated model which allows us to determine simultaneously the order of integration of hours worked and the response of hours to a technology shock. We find that hours fall on impact in response to a positive technology shock.

Suggested Citation

  • Luis Alberiko Gil-Alana & Antonio Moreno, 2006. "Technology Shocks and Hours Worked: A Fractional Integration Perspective," Faculty Working Papers 03/06, School of Economics and Business Administration, University of Navarra.
  • Handle: RePEc:una:unccee:wp0306
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.unav.edu/documents/10174/6546776/1147966515_wp0306.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Peter C.B. Phillips & Pierre Perron, 1986. "Testing for a Unit Root in Time Series Regression," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 795R, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University, revised Sep 1987.
    2. Sowell, Fallaw, 1992. "Maximum likelihood estimation of stationary univariate fractionally integrated time series models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 53(1-3), pages 165-188.
    3. Baillie, Richard T & Bollerslev, Tim, 1994. "The long memory of the forward premium," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 13(5), pages 565-571, October.
    4. Lobato, Ignacio N & Savin, N E, 1998. "Real and Spurious Long-Memory Properties of Stock-Market Data," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 16(3), pages 261-268, July.
    5. Geert Bekaert & Seonghoon Cho & Antonio Moreno, 2010. "New Keynesian Macroeconomics and the Term Structure," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 42(1), pages 33-62, February.
    6. Gil-Alana, L. A., 2003. "A fractional multivariate long memory model for the US and the Canadian real output," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 81(3), pages 355-359, December.
    7. Blanchard, Olivier Jean & Quah, Danny, 1989. "The Dynamic Effects of Aggregate Demand and Supply Disturbances," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 79(4), pages 655-673, September.
    8. Diebold, Francis X. & Rudebusch, Glenn D., 1989. "Long memory and persistence in aggregate output," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 24(2), pages 189-209, September.
    9. Granger, C. W. J., 1980. "Long memory relationships and the aggregation of dynamic models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 14(2), pages 227-238, October.
    10. Neville Francis & Valerie A. Ramey, 2002. "Is the Technology-Driven Real Business Cycle Hypothesis Dead?," NBER Working Papers 8726, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    11. Christiano, Lawrence J. & Eichenbaum, Martin & Evans, Charles L., 1999. "Monetary policy shocks: What have we learned and to what end?," Handbook of Macroeconomics, in: J. B. Taylor & M. Woodford (ed.), Handbook of Macroeconomics, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 2, pages 65-148, Elsevier.
    12. Kwiatkowski, Denis & Phillips, Peter C. B. & Schmidt, Peter & Shin, Yongcheol, 1992. "Testing the null hypothesis of stationarity against the alternative of a unit root : How sure are we that economic time series have a unit root?," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 54(1-3), pages 159-178.
    13. Gil-Alana, L. A. & Robinson, P. M., 1997. "Testing of unit root and other nonstationary hypotheses in macroeconomic time series," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 80(2), pages 241-268, October.
    14. Gil-Alana, L., 1998. "Multivariate Tests of Fractionally Integrated Hypotheses," Economics Working Papers eco98/19, European University Institute.
    15. Baillie, Richard T., 1996. "Long memory processes and fractional integration in econometrics," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 73(1), pages 5-59, July.
    16. Lobato, Ignacio N & Savin, N E, 1998. "Real and Spurious Long-Memory Properties of Stock-Market Data: Reply," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 16(3), pages 280-283, July.
    17. John Fernald, 2004. "Trend Breaks, Long Run Restrictions, and the Contractionary Effects of Technology Shocks," 2004 Meeting Papers 477, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    18. Lawrence J. Christiano & Martin Eichenbaum & Robert Vigfusson, 2003. "What Happens After a Technology Shock?," NBER Working Papers 9819, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    19. Neville Francis & Valerie A. Ramey, 2009. "Measures of per Capita Hours and Their Implications for the Technology-Hours Debate," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 41(6), pages 1071-1097, September.
    20. Pesavento, Elena & Rossi, Barbara, 2005. "Do Technology Shocks Drive Hours Up Or Down? A Little Evidence From An Agnostic Procedure," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 9(4), pages 478-488, September.
    21. Morten Ørregaard Nielsen, 2005. "Multivariate Lagrange Multiplier Tests for Fractional Integration," Journal of Financial Econometrics, Oxford University Press, vol. 3(3), pages 372-398.
    22. Diebold, Francis X. & Rudebusch, Glenn D., 1991. "On the power of Dickey-Fuller tests against fractional alternatives," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 35(2), pages 155-160, February.
    23. Hassler, Uwe & Wolters, Jurgen, 1994. "On the power of unit root tests against fractional alternatives," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 45(1), pages 1-5, May.
    24. Jonas D. M. Fisher, 2002. "Technology shocks matter," Working Paper Series WP-02-14, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
    25. Lee, Dongin & Schmidt, Peter, 1996. "On the power of the KPSS test of stationarity against fractionally-integrated alternatives," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 73(1), pages 285-302, July.
    26. Galí, Jordi & Rabanal, Pau, 2004. "Technology Shocks and Aggregate Fluctuations: How Well Does the RBC Model Fit Post-War US Data?," CEPR Discussion Papers 4522, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    27. Barbara Rossi & Elena Pesavento, 2004. "Do Technology Shocks Drive Hours Up or Down?," Econometric Society 2004 North American Summer Meetings 96, Econometric Society.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Marcos Sanso-Navarro, 2012. "Broken trend stationarity of hours worked," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 44(30), pages 3955-3964, October.
    2. Caporale, Guglielmo Maria & Gil-Alana, Luis A., 2014. "Persistence and cycles in US hours worked," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 38(C), pages 504-511.
    3. Luis Gil-Alana & Antonio Moreno, 2012. "Fractional integration and structural breaks in U.S. macro dynamics," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 43(1), pages 427-446, August.
    4. Lovcha, Yuliya & Perez-Laborda, Alejandro, 2015. "The Hours Worked–Productivity Puzzle: Identification In A Fractional Integration Setting," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 19(7), pages 1593-1621, October.
    5. Tschernig, Rolf & Weber, Enzo & Weigand, Roland, 2014. "Long- versus medium-run identification in fractionally integrated VAR models," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 122(2), pages 299-302.
    6. Ross Doppelt & Keith O'Hara, 2018. "Bayesian Estimation of Fractionally Integrated Vector Autoregressions and an Application to Identified Technology Shocks," 2018 Meeting Papers 1212, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    7. Ibrahim ARISOY, 2012. "Structural breaks and nonlinearities in hours worked: are they really nonstationary?," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 32(3), pages 2670-2677.
    8. Blazsek, Szabolcs & Escribano, Álvaro, 2012. "Patents, secret innovations and firm's rate of return : differential effects of the innovation leader," UC3M Working papers. Economics we1202, Universidad Carlos III de Madrid. Departamento de Economía.
    9. Luis Alberiko Gil-Alana & Carlos Poza, 2022. "The impact of COVID-19 on the Spanish tourism sector," Tourism Economics, , vol. 28(3), pages 646-653, May.
    10. Gianluca Moretti & Giulio Nicoletti, 2010. "Estimating DSGE models with unknown data persistence," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 750, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    11. Nadia Ayari & Szabolcs Blazsek & Pedro Mendi, 2012. "Renewable energy innovations in Europe: a dynamic panel data approach," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 44(24), pages 3135-3147, August.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Christian Fischer & Luis Alberiko Gil-Alana, 2005. "The Nature of the Relationship between International Tourism and International Trade: The Case of Ge," Faculty Working Papers 15/05, School of Economics and Business Administration, University of Navarra.
    2. Christian Fischer & Luis Gil-Alana, 2009. "The nature of the relationship between international tourism and international trade: the case of German imports of Spanish wine," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 41(11), pages 1345-1359.
    3. Carlos Pestana Barros & Luis Gil-Alana, 2006. "Eta: A Persistent Phenomenon," Defence and Peace Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 17(2), pages 95-116.
    4. Aye, Goodness C. & Carcel, Hector & Gil-Alana, Luis A. & Gupta, Rangan, 2017. "Does gold act as a hedge against inflation in the UK? Evidence from a fractional cointegration approach over 1257 to 2016," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 54(C), pages 53-57.
    5. Luis A. Gil-Alana & Antonio Moreno & Seonghoon Cho, 2012. "The Deaton paradox in a long memory context with structural breaks," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 44(25), pages 3309-3322, September.
    6. Baillie, Richard T., 1996. "Long memory processes and fractional integration in econometrics," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 73(1), pages 5-59, July.
    7. Laura Mayoral, 2006. "Further Evidence on the Statistical Properties of Real GNP," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 68(s1), pages 901-920, December.
    8. Ana Pérez & Esther Ruiz, 2002. "Modelos de memoria larga para series económicas y financieras," Investigaciones Economicas, Fundación SEPI, vol. 26(3), pages 395-445, September.
    9. Choi, Kyongwook & Zivot, Eric, 2007. "Long memory and structural changes in the forward discount: An empirical investigation," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 26(3), pages 342-363, April.
    10. Laura Mayoral, 2005. "Is the observed persistence spurious? A test for fractional integration versus short memory and structural breaks," Economics Working Papers 956, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra.
    11. Monge, Manuel & Gil-Alana, Luis A. & Pérez de Gracia, Fernando, 2017. "Crude oil price behaviour before and after military conflicts and geopolitical events," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 120(C), pages 79-91.
    12. Belbute, José, 2013. "Does final demand for energy in Portugal exhibit long memory?," MPRA Paper 45717, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    13. Guglielmo Maria Caporale & Marinko Skare, 2014. "Long Memory in UK Real GDP, 1851-2013: An ARFIMA-FIGARCH Analysis," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 1395, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
    14. Javier Hualde & Morten {O}rregaard Nielsen, 2022. "Fractional integration and cointegration," Papers 2211.10235, arXiv.org.
    15. Assaf, Ata, 2015. "Long memory and level shifts in REITs returns and volatility," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 172-182.
    16. Cunado, J. & Gil-Alana, L.A. & Gracia, Fernando Perez de, 2010. "Mean reversion in stock market prices: New evidence based on bull and bear markets," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 24(2), pages 113-122, June.
    17. L. A. Gil-Alana, 2003. "A fractional integration analysis of the population in some OECD countries," Journal of Applied Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 30(10), pages 1147-1159.
    18. Guglielmo Maria Caporale & Luis A. Gil-Alana, 2007. "A Multivariate Long-Memory Model with Structural Breaks," CESifo Working Paper Series 1950, CESifo.
    19. Fumitaka Furuoka & Luis A. Gil-Alana & OlaOluwa S. Yaya & Elayaraja Aruchunan & Ahamuefula E. Ogbonna, 2024. "A new fractional integration approach based on neural network nonlinearity with an application to testing unemployment hysteresis," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 66(6), pages 2471-2499, June.
    20. Guglielmo Maria Caporale & Luis A. Gil-Alana, 2015. "Infant mortality rates: time trends and fractional integration," Journal of Applied Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 42(3), pages 589-602, March.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • C12 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Hypothesis Testing: General
    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • C51 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Construction and Estimation
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:una:unccee:wp0306. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: the person in charge (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.unav.edu/web/facultad-de-ciencias-economicas-y-empresariales .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.